Matt Moore: Top Prospect to Down and Out
During the 2011 season, the Tampa Bay Rays boasted one of the best homegrown rotations in recent memory. This high-ceiling unit, headlined by ace James Shields, was envied by all opponents due to its affordability and youth.
The remarkable depth of this group made Tampa a nightmare to face in a series as emerging hurlers David Price, Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Cobb rounded out this coveted bunch. Despite the heroics of these elite arms, the eventual American League Champion Texas Rangers put a premature end to Tampa’s 2011 postseason run. With legitimate World Series aspirations and an affordable core of youthful talent, the club introduced left hander Matt Moore into their rotation at the start of the 2012 season.
Top Prospect
The Tampa Bay Devil Rays drafted Matt Moore out of high school with an eighth round selection in 2007 with the hope that he would eventually develop into a middle of the rotation arm.
Following his selection, he was assigned to Tampa’s rookie ball affiliate, the Princeton Devil Rays, and at just 18 quickly began to dominate his opposition. After posting a sparkling 1.93 earned run average in just over 74 rookie ball innings, the Rays decided to begin Moore’s rapid ascension to the Majors. The lefty cruised through each level of the Minors, pitching to a cumulative 2.74 ERA and a 12.5 K/9 over the duration of his 552.2 semi-pro innings.
Despite beginning his professional career as a low-hype draftee, Moore was widely recognized as the game’s top pitching prospect at the time of his Major League debut. In fact, Baseball America’s 2011 top prospect list recognized him as the sport’s second best farmhand, and MLB.com had the lefty slated just behind Mike Trout and Bryce Harper on their annual ranking.
His rise to fame was fueled by a complete control of his pitch arsenal, which was headlined by an upper nineties four-seam fastball. Moore’s secondary pitches were equally as devastating as his cutter, curveball and hard sinker featured contrasting velocities and tremendous breaking action.
Time in Tampa
Moore turned heads during a brief September 2011 debut and made the Rays’ postseason roster despite having less than ten big league innings under his belt. Although the Rangers breezed past Tampa en route to their World Series berth, Moore was a bright spot in the series, as he tossed ten innings of one run ball and recorded his team’s only victory.
After witnessing the lefty shine under the postseason lights, the Rays were more than sold on his ability. The club made the decision to hand their emerging star a five year, $14 million extension with options and escalators that could see the deal’s total value eclipse $40 million. While Moore certainly showed promise in his brief debut, the move came as a surprise as he’d only accumulated a mere 17 days of Major League service time.
2012 marked Moore’s official rookie season and his expectations were as high as could be. While serving as his team’s number four starter, the lefty posted a 3.81 ERA over 31 starts and fanned 175 batters in just over 177 frames. While these numbers were a far cry from those produced at the top of this staff, they were above average for a middle of the rotation arm and encouraging statistics from a rookie. Advanced sabermetrics suggest that Moore was far more dominant during his 2012 campaign than his first-glance numbers suggest. The left-hander was throwing his four-seam fastball at a career high 94.9 mph and often dialed it up past the 95 mark on two strike counts. Moore’s confidence and control clearly peaked during this season as he often challenged opposing hitters with that fastball in high-leverage counts. He threw this pitch just over 50 percent of the time and watched it produce 73 of his 175 strikeouts.
At just 23, Moore already featured an above average Major League fastball, however his secondary pitches were what made scouts think he was destined for stardom.
His ability to drastically alter his velocity while still maintaining a similar arm angle had opposing batters flailing at his curveball and changeup during the 2012 season. The lefty’s curveball quickly became one of baseball’s most feared pitches as it arrived to the plate more than 12 mph slower than his heater. Moore’s opposition batted a miniscule .182 against this pitch while recording just three extra base hits and striking out 43 times. His changeup was also 8.8 mph off his fastball, but opposing batters fared much better against it during his first full season. The left-hander allowed a .275 BAA and 15 XBH despite using the pitch just 17 percent of the time. Although the results weren’t fantastic, the 37 strikeouts that his changeup yielded were an optimistic sign of what could come.
After a successful first season, it appeared as though the Rays had developed another emerging star, and Moore’s 2013 campaign only furthered that belief. The lefty racked up 17 victories in just 27 starts during his sophomore campaign while pitching to an impressive 3.29 ERA. Moore’s breakout season was largely thanks to the improved results that his changeup produced. Opposing batters hit just .152 against the pitch while his curveball held the opposition to a similarly impressive .213 BAA. His performance earned him an All-Star nod and a top ten finish in the American League Cy Young Award voting.
One alarming note from the left-hander’s sophomore campaign was that his fastball velocity was down an even three miles per hour from the prior season. While his heater still came in hard enough to set up his offspeed pitches, this loss in velocity at such a young age was a worrisome development.
Nonetheless, the sky was the limit for the blossoming star, and all was going perfectly until a July 2013 diagnosis that altered the course of his once promising career.
Moore’s initial prognosis showed that he was simply dealing with elbow soreness. But the soreness persisted and the lefty was sidelined for the final weeks of his special second season. Matt Moore opted against surgery during the 2013-14 offseason, but when the ailment reappeared during the following campaign, a sprained UCL was revealed. The resulting Tommy John Surgery wiped away all but two of his 2014 outings.
In 2015, Moore was able to return to the mound for 12 starts, however the results were nothing short of alarming. The left hander was tattooed for a career worst 10.6 H/9 and saw his K/9 plummet to an equally poor 6.6 mark. His fastball velocity was down to 92.7 mph and his curveball, which once peaked at just over 84 mph, was failing to top 79 on a regular basis. Opposing hitters were tattooing Moore’s lower-velocity four seamer to the tune of a .288 BAA and 18 XBH. His unsightly 5.43 ERA was nearly two full runs higher than his career average and his uninspiring performance provided much uncertainty about his future in the wake of a major surgery.
Shipped Off
Moore entered the following season in desperate need of a bounce-back campaign, and after carrying a solid 4.08 earned run average through his first 21 starts, he seemingly appeared to be back to full health. His velocity was finally on the uptick as his fastball once again sat between 93-94 mph, and he had added a cutter to his pitch arsenal with the hopes of developing a sharper, harder breaking pitch. While the initial results were promising, the lefty still did not look like the former top prospect that was once viewed as Tampa’s potential ace of the future, and following his solid half-season showing, the Rays opted to capitalize on his value. Just hours before the midseason trade deadline, the club shipped the 27-year-old to the San Francisco Giants for a package headlined by third baseman Matt Duffy.
Moore went on to make 12 meaningful starts for his new club down the stretch, including nearly no-hitting the division rival Los Angeles Dodgers. When he was handed the unenviable task of starting against the eventual World Series champion Chicago Cubs in the NLDS, he delivered arguably the best performance of his entire career. Matt Moore held Chicago to just one run on two hits while striking out ten over eight dominant innings, something we don’t exactly see anymore.
The lefty enjoyed a promising comeback season in 2016, and most importantly tallied nearly 200 frames over 33 healthy starts. He flashed shades of brilliance during his one postseason outing and with youth on his side, once again resembled a potential front of the rotation contributor.
Bottoming Out
Coming into the 2017 season, the Giants were hoping that Matt Moore would build on his solid half season in San Francisco. Unfortunately for both the player and team, the exact opposite occurred as Moore’s command issues led to an elevated walk rate and a troublesome 10.3 H/9.
Moore’s average fastball velocity once again dropped, this time to a career-worst 91.9 mph, and the lefty completely abandoned his sinker in favor of a newly developed cutter. The left-hander’s 17.7% usage of his curveball was his lowest since 2012, and his fastball, changeup, cutter combination got tattooed for a combined .282 BAA and 69 XBH. While the Matt Moore managed to stay healthy for 31 starts, he did so while leading the league in losses (15) and earned runs allowed (107). His final line included a hideous 5.52 earned run average, 200 total hits allowed and a mediocre 7.6 K/9.
Following his dreadful 2017 showing, the Giants dealt Moore to the Texas Rangers in an offseason swap that netted the club a pair of minor leaguers. With Texas, Moore’s regression continued.
Despite once relying on an effective four-seam/curveball/changeup combination, the lefty continued to throw his cutter in strikeout situations. He threw his changeup less than ever (13.5%) during the 2018 season and watched batters maul his cutter for a ridiculous .396 BAA and 604 SLG. Despite his significant $9 million salary, the former top prospect was pulled from the rotation after just twelve starts. In his only season with the Rangers, Moore was tagged for a career-worst 6.79 ERA and allowed more hits than innings pitched over his 39 appearances.
The 2018-19 offseason saw Matt Moore reach free agency for the first time in his career. After two lost seasons, it was widely expected that the lefty would have to settle for a minor league deal, however the Detroit Tigers surprisingly agreed to sign him to a $2.5 million guarantee. Matt Moore’s Detroit tenure began with a promising two-start showing that saw him toss 10 scoreless innings over two starts, however an early April knee sprain sidelined the southpaw once again.
Originally expected to miss just a handful of games, Moore’s diagnosis quickly escalated. What was initially described as a minor procedure ended up costing the lefty the entire season, as further examination revealed a tear in his meniscus.
While Moore’s two starts as a Tiger went about as good as they possibly could have, the sample size was too small for him to garner any Major League interest during the 2019-20 offseason. With zero Major League offers in hand, Moore agreed to take his talents to Japan as the SoftBank Hawks of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball League agreed to take a $3.5 million gamble on his services. The contract, which included an appealing $2.5 million in incentives, proved to be a good one for the Hawks as Moore turned in a sterling 2.69 ERA over his first 67 international innings.
So, What Happened?
Matt Moore’s early-career success was largely thanks to his exceptional ability to mix his pitches. While he was never a flamethrower, he had enough fastball velocity to make his slower breaking pitches virtually unhittable during his peak. Moore’s loss of velocity led to his statistical decline as every time his pitch speed decreased, the batting stats of his opponents drastically improved. Some pitchers are able to recover from Tommy John surgery and come back throwing just as hard, however it looks like Moore’s rapid regression was partially due to the lingering effects of the procedure.
Although his production began to tail off during his comeback season in Tampa, Matt Moore’s statistics went off the deep end once he began throwing his cutter. His increased use of this pitch took away from the amount of curveballs and changeups that opposing batters saw, and eventually phased the hard sinker completely out of his arsenal. As his velocity continued to decline, the difference in velocity between his four-seamer and cutter began to decrease. In time, this made Moore’s cutter and his once effective fastball equally ineffective.
Many pitchers have revitalized their careers overseas after failing to produce at the Major League level. In the recent cases of Josh Linblom and Miles Mikolas, successful international tenures lead to lofty free agent guarantees from contending teams. Matt Moore has experienced runs of MLB success, and will only be entering his age 32 season in 2021. While he may never fully live up to his pre-debut expectations, there is every possibility that he will again take the hill as a Major Leaguer if he can right the ship in Japan.
