The 2022 Off The Bench Hall of Fame Ballot Chat
Hello! Is it that time of year again?
I believe it is! We’ve been doing this since 2013 and describe it as a process, but really it’s more of a portal into our minds loosely tied to a baseball Hall of Fame discussion. What follows is that unfiltered portal full of all of its circular logic, silly digressions, and sabermetric bumbling. Enjoy.
We went for nearly 3 hours last time we did this and somehow voted for exactly one starting pitcher. Anyway, let’s work through this ballot in our usual alphabetic manner. That means Bobby Abreu is first under the microscope. Hit me with your Bobby Abreu thoughts
I’m excited! Not in the least because it’s all we have right now since the owners have locked the players out and Major League Baseball currently doesn’t exist.
Bobby Abreu was really good! I was a fan. Faster than you remember, a better hitter than you remember. Not a Hall of Famer.
There’s a Fangraphs article right now questioning whether Abreu had a better MLB career than Ichiro and I refuse to read it. He did not. He’s a classic example of contortionist stats; ones that can bend to say most anything you want.
He’s good, sure. But I never thought he was great. He never got higher than 12th on an MVP ballot.
There’s a lot of guys that retire and we all agree that they had a great career but aren’t a HOFer and then after a few years on the ballot, there’s some twitter groundswell and we all convince ourselves they should be in.
Right now, it’s Scott Rolen who’s benefiting from this.
Abreu feels like a decent future candidate
We put him in the Baines Bucket last year. For reference, the Baines Bucket is a real bucket outside of the Hall of Fame and anybody who you thought was ok you can put their baseball card in there.
fact.
We’re in agreement here. Anyway – next up is Bonds. This is the last year we get to discuss Bonds in this chat
Barry Bonds is a Hall of Famer. Full Stop. You can’t tell the story of baseball without Bonds.
Bonds’ career OPS+ was 182, so he was almost twice as good as the average Major Leaguer for something like 22 years. Bobby Abreu never had an OPS+ above 151. Bonds runs laps around both average MLB players and Baines Bucket guys
I actually think he might get in this year. The public ballots so far are encouraging.
We get 10 slots, can we agree Bonds gets one of them?
I’d like him to get in. It’d be a shame for a collective retroactive moralism to continue
He got punished already by having to wait this long. Making him wait another 20 something years before the Veterans Committee puts him in is stupid.
Clemens is next, right?
Nope – Mark Buehrle! (I spelled it right the first time. I’m a professional.)
Well done!
He was good. He made good defensive plays and pitched notably quickly. I’m glad he’s on the ballot.
Do you have an opinion on his HOF status? I think he’s very much a rubric to help you decide where you stand in the bigHall/smallHall debate.
Really? I think he’s not really close. Others disagree?
I was going to compliment him on pitching his whole career with the White Sox, but he actually played for both Miami and Toronto. That I didn’t remember that maybe says something?
Led the league in hits allowed 4 times. Got any Cy Young votes at all once.
He had more career WAR than HOFers Whitey Ford and Billy Pierce. He’s the 4th most WAR of any pitcher born in the 70s
I don’t really think he’s a HOFer, but the rubric for starters in the modern era is different. He’s basically Andy Pettitte
We’ll get to Pettitte in a bit. I agree they’re quite similar
Ok – I’m just laying breadcrumbs here. I like Buehrle. I doubt we’ll ever see someone quite like him again: 214 wins, 5.1 K/9
I’m going to pull myself out of that research rabbit hole that I want to go down…. Roger Clemens is next
Everything I said about Bonds applies to Clemens….yet…
yet he’s less likeable so I’d like to vote for him less
Let’s add him to the maybe pile? Like I think we do every year?
A Clemens + Schilling ballot is untenable, so at least we’re not really looking down the barrel at that since Schilling asked everyone not to vote for him
Yup – Maybe pile sounds fine. Carl Crawford is next. Quiz: Who had more steals: Crawford, Barry Bonds, or Rickey Henderson after the age of 30?
Context clues make me think it’s Crawford, but I’m going to guess Henderson.
It’s Henderson! Rickey at 30+ had 612, Bonds 514, Crawford 480. Fun career that was cut way short
I think we can actually use Crawford’s career as a case for why Andruw Jones belongs in the Hall
Oh? Tell me more
Crawford was really good in his 20s, but then totally fell off a cliff. He’s a fresh reminder that Andruw Jones was so infinitely better in his 20s and the lengthy careers are too often prioritized in the HOF discussions.
You need to play at least 10 years to even be considered, right?
I think some length is important. Ubaldo Jimenez undoubtedly had one Hall of Fame year. He had an arguably best ever 1/2 season. I don’t think that makes him a real candidate though.
I really don’t know. It’s all a mystery. We’ll get to Jones later. I’d really like to have a different conversation around the career that Prince Fielder should have had. His career ended in the midst of his age 32 season and he already had 319 homers
He’s next?
Yes
Definitely one of the biggest what ifs of the generation. Seems like an easy 500 homer guy
This one kind of feels like they’re giving him a little hat tip just by including him on here. You think he gets over 5% this year? With all the other guys on the ballot that are arguably deserving?
I don’t think he gets over 5%. I do feel like he’s a Hall of Fame talent though. Maybe less so than Josh Hamilton, but basically the type of guy who should have had a HOF career
He’s just a naturally born hitter.
So was Todd Helton. Make a case for him to make our ballot
.300/.400/.500 club with over 2,500 hits and 3,900 times on base. Only 11 players in history have done that, and 10 of those 11 are in the Hall of Fame.
That’s a good case. He was definitely a generational hitter and I think Larry Walker getting in kills the whole Coors Field penalty. I could be talked into Helton.
Only 21 players have managed to hit .320 with 30 homers and 100/100 RBI/Runs as many as three times ever in their careers. 15 of the 21 are in the Hall. The 5 who aren’t are Helton, Pujols, Cabrera, Bonds, and Ramirez. Helton did it in 5 straight seasons from 98-03
So he makes the maybe pile? Or he joins Bonds as in?
I think he’s in
works for me. That’s 2, with one maybe. Who’s next?
Not a Hall of Famer. Good player though!
Yup. Let’s keep it moving. Tim Hudson is next! Hudson was a CFer in college. He’s the reverse Charlie Blackmon
Hudson ended up being the best of the Hudson, Barry Zito, Mark Mulder A’s super-rotation, right?
Yes! Hudson had a surprisingly good career. 3.49 ERA across 3100 innings. Hudson is very much like Buehrle. 222 wins, 6.0 K/9. 4th in WAR among pitchers born in the 70s.
If we didn’t even give Buerhle a maybe, I think Hudson’s also a “no”
Wasn’t Buehrle 4th in WAR among pitchers born in the 70s?
Also, why is that a stat?
Oh shoot. Hudson is 5th. It’s a stat! Bobby wrote a whole post about it on this very website:
Pettitte, Buehrle, and Hudson: Hall of Fame Starters
Great post. Great website.
Agree that Hudson is out. Next!
Torii Hunter is next. He got 9.5% of the vote last year. I don’t see it. Am I wrong?
If all the steroid guys were off the ballot- if they we’re either already in or ineligible, would Torii Hunter get in?
Or would you think he should?
I don’t really think about it that way. I think it’s more: “Was this guy ever one of the best players in the sport?” He obviously made a few ASG and won 9 straight GG, but he also just doesn’t seem like a HOFer
I need a better reason. His career isn’t THAT different from Andruw Jones (who is next). I’m confident Jones is a HOFer, Hunter was worse, so he’s a maybe
I feel just the opposite, actually. His B-Ref page isn’t that impressive, but if you’d asked me in 2005 to name the active guys who wold be HOFers, I think he would have been on my list.
Jones would have too.
Let’s come back to Hunter. He’s close
Tell me about Andrew Jones, and why his baaaaaad end of his career doesn’t disqualify him.
Among players with 10-or-more Gold Glove Awards, only Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Schmidt have more home runs than Andruw Jones.
Voters provided Ozzie Smith a first-ballot induction in 2002 based solely on the defensive greatness
His last season that can objectively be called ‘good’ was his age 29 season. He retired at age 35.
When was your last season that was objectively “good”?
Is Mike Trout a HOFer right now?
Peak Andruw Jones isn’t peak Mike Trout. I’m just saying that he was really, really good, for a comparatively short amount of time, and he had a very not HOF-y 5 year tail on his career
Don’t get all defensive about your Braves guy!
I totally agree! But the point is that the peak and the length is what matters
What percent of the vote did he get last year?
I’d induct Trout today. We should have active HOFers playing!
Jones got 33% last year
Totally agree! If a guy is clear cut already, put him in now. I’d love to see ‘Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera‘ announced to hit. That would be awesome. Give them a special patch on their jersey, too.
I bet Jones goes up, but I’d be surprised if he got 50%. I think he’s hurt by the amount of competition on the ballot right now.
Can we add him to our maybe pile and move on?
Yeah – BTW – I think the ballot is less grossly crowded than it used to be. Jeff Kent is next. We’ve historically not voted for Kent. He’s on his 9th ballot and got 32% of the vote last year
I would like to continue not voting for Kent.
Also, the HOF ballot being crowded is something I’m never not going to think its true. Every year for the rest of my life I will think it’s crowded, whether it is true or not. It’s my truth.
There’s a decent case here though. One of the best-hitting second basemen ever: most dingers from 2B, he won an MVP, 2nd highest slugging for a 2B
Crowded is all relative. However, you can’t simultaneously think it’s crowded and think that so many of the guys on it are not HOFers. So you either have to pick crowded or Kent
A mustache from a different age…
Crowded. I pick crowded.
Tim Lincecum is an example of Too Short Peak. That’s not to say he’s Too Short, but maybe it is
Agree. Great pitcher, but he only played 10 seasons, and the last 2 weren’t full seasons.
Definitely the best pitcher in baseball for 2 years, but so was Jason Schmidt and Brandon Webb and a whole bunch of other guys that aren’t in.
Also, not to look too far ahead, but I think you could make a solid case, and I will/ we have, for like 12-13 guys this year. So, crowded.
Adam Wainwright finished 3rd in one of Tim Lincecum’s CY Seasons. Wainwright’s a current HOFer
Yeah I guess he is. He’s not a guaranteed first ballot guy though, is he?
IDK – we need to speed this up. We’ll deal with Wainwright in 2029 or whatever
I think to get ‘The Patch’ you’d need like 90% of the vote.
Fair enough.
Who’s next?
Justin Morneau is next. He won an MVP one year and then finished second 2 years later. He also played in 163 games one year
Batting champ, too
Fascinating career. Not HOF worthy
I think the 247 homers as a first basemen really hurts him. He was a 30 homer a year guy, and then he wasn’t.
He had concussion problems, right?
Yeah – He’s the first one who really taught me about concussions. I wonder what his career would have been in a world where we know more about concussions
He and Prince Fielder would have been two surefire guys if medicine was better. Oh well. Who’s next?
You think Prince Fielder was a medicine problem that 2021 medicine could address? Or more if medicine were closer to sci-fi / Harry Potter medicine?
Like 2121 medicine. Everything’s going to be fixable eventually, right?
Yes. Joe Nathan is next. He would have been better if it weren’t for a few TJ seasons. Jay Jaffe voted for Nathan
I respect Jay Jaffe and I think there’s a case to be made though. I think the bar should be higher for DHs and relievers just since they play less, and I’m not sure Nathan is above that extra bar. He’s real close though. He might be. What do you think?
2 top 5 Cy Young finishes as a closer. 3 straight years with an ERA under 2. 377 saves is 8th all time, but is that good?
I think he’s definitely not. He was always a sneaky actually good reliever as opposed to an elite reliever. His 2.87 career ERA is noteworthy, too. He’s basically if Blake Treinen did his thing for another 5ish years.
On the face, he’s definitely a “no” but the more you think about it, the more it’s like…. yeah, maybe? I’m pretty strong in my initial “no” though
I feel like he might be one of those climbers who sneaks in with 75.5% in year 8 or something
I’m fine leaving him off for now. I think Jaffe will forgive us.
Who’s next?
Big Papi is next!
He is a yes.
I mentioned that special bar for relievers and DHs and he clears it, with room to spare.
As much as it pains me to say it.
You don’t pause for the steroid ban? I do
He was never banned.
He appeared on one leaked doc as testing positive during what was supposed to be an anonymous test. That’s it.
Also, I was pro Bonds and I’m about to be pro A-Rod and pro- Manny.
Steroid test* my bad
pro A-rod is going to be tricky for me. Anyway, I’m in on Ortiz.
Ortiz is an easy yes. It seems like if one guy is going to get in this year, it’s him. I guess I’m fine with that
Jonathan Papelbon and Jake Peavy are good baseball players.
Papelbon isn’t a very good person though
Always my least favorite Red Sox, which is a very competitive race every year
Oh – Who was your least favorite Red Sox in 2021? I thought that was a likeable team
Last year? Probably Christian Vazquez because everyone thinks he’s so ‘gritty’ and good at the intangibles when really he just sucks. Or Rafael Devers because he’s so annoyingly good.
By the way, Peavy is a guy I thought had a chance when he was active. After 2008, it seemed like he was on his way, but he wasn’t able to stay on that level. I guess that’s what makes guys like Jacob deGrom so special.
Yeah – I think Peavy could have been a way better pitcher in the 2020 era where you only face a lineup a few times. It looks like he faced the lineup a 3rd time in about 80% of his starts. I think he had his A stuff in about 25% of his starts
Like Peavy was really good, but the later career usefulness would have looked differently in 2020 than it did in 2014
So Peavy who debuted in 2018 instead of 2002 gets in?
Yeah
Anyway – Pettitte is next
I like that. That’s great fodder for a post.
Pettitte has a stronger case than Buehrle because of the post-season stuff, but I don’t think he’s a Hall of Famer.
Did he get zapped for PEDs too?
I also don’t think he has a shot since he has the same steroid ties as Clemens and not even close to as strong a case.
Yeah. But he only used them once!
And I bet he just stuck the tip of the needle in, to see what it was like
I bet he didn’t even like it
No chance he liked it. That’s probably why he only did it that 1 (one) time.
Well if you – Pettitte Stan – don’t think he’s in, then our job is done here
Crowded ballot….
AJ Pierzynski is annoying
Very true.
He’s not getting our vote. He wasn’t that good
And he had a tendency to punch people, despite having by far the stupidest hair on the field.
2 All Star games in 19 years. Only thing he ever led the league in was grounding into double plays
Can we make a special circle for people that we didn’t like that is somehow just to annoy them?
Put a Hall of Stupid in like Stupidtown, NY or something
Like a circle holding hands around the Baines Bucket?
I’m thinking they just get a poorly done mural in Scranton, PA
Fine by me.
Who’s next?
Manny Ramirez and then Alex Rodriguez. I think they’re both in, despite the PEDs. These guys definitely liked the PEDs. I think they both even used PEDs in gummy bear form
They might even be 1-2 all time in number of PEDs used.
But I think they’re in
Manny was caught and suspended more than once, he was also the most feared hitter in baseball for many years and was unstoppable in some stretches.
A Rod waged a war to damage the sport, discredit the Commissioner, and ruin dozens of lives. He literally sued baseball and was banished for an entire year. He is also without question the most talented shortstop in baseball history and a top 10 player ever.
I honestly can’t hold not voting for either of them against anybody. I think they both need to be in though.
You’ve summed things up quite well. I think A-Rod is a certain type of bad in that there is evidence that he used PEDs dating back to high school. He was good, but it’s also impossible to know what his “fair” talent level would have been
But it’s a baseball museum and A-Rod and Manny are both major players in the history of baseball, influencing trajectories of multiple of the game’s biggest teams
I think that’s right. It goes back to ‘can you tell the story of the game without this guy’ and for both, the answer is an easy HELL NO, NO WAY
Scott Rolen is next.
Ugh
Sean,
I’m anti-Rolen based on one key thing: He was never the best player on his own team
Can you tell the story of baseball without Scott Rolen?
Last time we did this, we made many jokes about being “on” Scott Rolen. Logan mounted a strong case for the 3B extraordinaire
You can tell the story of the Cardinals without Scott Rolen
Hit me with it
The story of the Cardinals? It was a mad scientist gone wrong. He tried to make anthropomorphic baseball playing birds after WW2. Wound up not working, they use humans now instead
Actually, I may be fuzzy…. Was the Cardinals inventor actually a Nazi scientist?
Are you thinking of Hydra?
What was Logan’s case for Rolen?
There are so many good names for teams. Why do we have Blue Jackets and Braves and Golden Knights?
I live in a city where the football team is called ‘The Football Team’
We may be getting a little off topic
Scott Rolen career WAR: 70.2
Average Hall of Fame 3B WAR: 68.45th best SLG% among 3B, good defender
Rolen has a case by the stats as one of the best, well-rounded players of all time. I just think our stats are bad. You know how we learned that wins are a terrible measure? Well, one day we’ll learn how much WAR, particularly dWAR can be improved upon
I guess I come back to the fact that when he retired, if someone asked us if he should be in, we’d both have said no without hesitation
Rolen is a “no.” Jimmy Rollins is next. I got his autograph once. I’m a little surprised at how his b-ref page reads…. He’s basically a lead-off guy with some pop who didn’t quite get on base enough
I think if he had a .380 career OBP instead of a .324 career OBP, he’s a HOFer. But… that’s a lot
Christina Kahrl voted for him because he was ‘the best shortstop of his generation’. Is that true?
I mean, I know it’s true that she voted for him
A-Rod…. Jeter… He’s 20th all-time among SS in WAR
Yeah it struck me as a weird comment when I read it.
MVP though. Shortstop with pop on a World Series winner. Genuine baseball icon for a major city
Should we make him a Maybe? I could put him as our 10th guy
I think I’d vote for one of Buerhle, Hudson, Pettitte before Rollins though
Let’s put him as a maybe and see where we’re at when we’re done
OK – Curt Schilling, Gary Sheffield, Sammy Sosa
Woof – Juicy part of the ballot. Schilling is a “no” – He’s a glorified Kevin Brown and a psychopath that doesn’t deserve the HOF platform
And he asked us not to vote for him
So we shall oblige
Interested in your thoughts on Sheffield though. Where were we last year?
Sheffield is a “yes” for me: nine All-Star appearances, three top-three finishes in the MVP voting, a World Series ring, a batting title, and prominent all-time rankings in walks (21st with 1,475, against just 1,171 strikeouts), homers (26th), and RBIs (30th).
He’s one of the 50 or so best hitters to ever play. That does it for me
I agree. He’s a bubble guy but I think he’s on the inside. I’m for Shef
I’m also staunchly pro Sosa
I think he’s kind of a jackass, but he hit 609 home runs and that has to get you in
Agree – Baseball museum…
Sosa is one of the primary reasons I’m a baseball fan. We need more people like Sammy Sosa in today’s game
Well…
Well?
I mean there was the PEDs and the lying to Congress and it seems like he’s got some stuff going on in his life right now…
But his HOF acceptance speech would be very, very entertaining
We need more people like the version of Sammy Sosa in my head
Mark Teixeira is next. I recently saw a stat that evaluated quarterback performance based on leverage. It was something like a garbage time TD doesn’t matter. We need that stat for baseball to dispel any rumors that Tex was good.
Tex was good!
HOF good?
He was fine. He’s actually got a surprisingly good b-ref page. 408 HR, .869 OPS, MVP votes in 7 seasons
He’s probably somewhere between 10th and 15th best switch hitter of all time, right?
Yeah- Probably Top 10. But I think that’s another way of saying he’s one of the best guys named Mark to ever play for the Yankees
the SH-only stats aren’t all that interesting to me
That’s fair. I’d rather you be a great one thing hitter than a good switch hitter
Mark was good. Better than you think and a better hitter than analyst. But he can be out.
Ok – Omar Vizquel is next. I think Tex was better than Vizquel
Does Vizquel being outed as a terrible person matter to you? It seems to for the BWAA voters, he’s in line for the biggest year over year decease ever
I’m not familiar with his transgressions? Did he come out as an owl murderer?
Sexual Assault I think. I’ve tried to avoid the details
Oh, gross. Yeah – He’s out. Let’s move on.
Billy Wagner is next. I like Wagner! He made 7 ASG, had a 2.31 ERA, and a WHIP under 1
tell me why he’s better than Nathan
More saves (by 43), better WHIP (by 0.2), better ERA (by 0.50), more ASG (by 1)
Career ERA Leaders since 1950:
- Kimbrel – 2.18
- Rivera – 2.21
- Wagner – 2.31
(Takashi Saito is 4th???)
Takashi Saito!
That is compelling
Wonderful! I’ve put him in
Do we have room on our ballot? Where are we at so far?
That’s the end. Here’s what we’ve got:
- Bonds
- Helton
- Ortiz
- A-Rod
- Manny
- Sosa
- Sheffield
- Wagner
So we can pick two from: Clemens, Hunter, Jones, Nathan, Rollins
Ok, draft?
Draft? That’s insane…. Ok… I pick Jones
Figured. That leaves me in a tough spot.
I guess I’ll pick Clemens
Those were my two. I gamed the system
Well there we go. That’s 10!
Wonderful! Let’s get it posted
