Looking Back on the Angels – Dodgers Trade That Could Have Been
When 2020 began we (and the Dodgers) cared about trivial things: Would good pitchers get enough innings? How do we fit 6 outfielders in 3.5 spots?
Now that we are almost 10 months into 2020 and have spent 7 of those 10 months fearing for the health and lives of ourselves/loved ones, we realize some things matter more than others. However, there is one failed trade from the pre-Covid-19 era of baseball that I’ve been unable ot lose interest in.
The Angels and Dodgers had been said to be working on a trade that would send Ross Stripling and Joc Pederson south to Anaheim. Dodgers clear their outfield logjam, trim payroll, get a few interesting prospects/depth pieces (Luis Rengifo) and the Angels get always needed rotation depth and a strong left handed bat (against RHP at least).
Win-Win right?
Not quite, the Angel’s owner became impatient with how long the deal was taking among “other things.”
The Dodgers were always going to be fine in the long run, they ended up winning their division handily, again, and are set to start the ALDS this week. The Angels however missed the playoffs by 6 games and Mike Trout again has a long offseason. So let’s look back and see if that makes the difference for the Angels and Mike Trout.
Graphs and Stats courtesy of Fangraphs.com
- Joc Pederson
| Season | Team | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | EV | BsR | Off | Def | WAR |
- Ross Stripling
| Season | Team | W | L | SV | G | GS | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | EV | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
| 2020 | 2 Teams | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 49.1 | 7.30 | 3.28 | 2.37 | .291 | 66.9% | 39.9% | 22.8% | 91.2 | 5.84 | 6.15 | 4.95 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | Dodgers | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 33.2 | 7.22 | 2.94 | 3.21 | .263 | 72.3% | 33.0% | 25.5% | 92.4 | 5.61 | 7.29 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| 2020 | Blue Jays | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 15.2 | 7.47 | 4.02 | 0.57 | .347 | 59.3% | 55.1% | 10.0% | 88.6 | 6.32 | 3.70 | 4.10 | 0.3 |
Together thats -0.5 WAR added to the Angels. Underwhelming seems appropriate here. The Dodgers technically would have gotten better simply from not having them on the roster, and they did trade Stripling to the Blue Jays midseason.
However, there is another piece to this, Mr. Luis Rengifo. The Angels hypothetically lose his production and the Dodger hypothetically gain.
- Luis Rengifo
| Season | Team | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | EV | BsR | Off | Def | WAR |
A glove first player, Rengifo struggled to hit all year and was a -0.4 WAR overall. The prospects names were not finalized so there are other pieces that may have also been a factor.
However, if the trade was consummated as we know it, the difference is -0.1 WAR. “Advantage” Angels.
We all lose when we see less of Mike Trout on a diamond. The firing of their GM at the conclusion of the season is indicative that the Angel’s owner agrees.
However, the caveat is that this is not a normal year. Nor a normal baseball season. This is as far from normal as any of us could have imagined 2020 being.
60 games is a little less than half of the usual 162 game marathon, and players can change their whole season around after the all star break. So now that we have acknowledged that this is a small sample size, I will use the pre-Covid-19 projections to see how these players could have had an impact in a “normal” season.
Lets take a look at the top 3 of the Angel’s 2019 Pitching Staff.
| Name | Age | G | GS | IP | K% | BB% | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
| Tyler Skaggs | 27 | 15 | 15 | 79.2 | 23.3% | 8.4% | 1.02 | .294 | 68.6% | 37.1% | 11.4% | 4.29 | 3.85 | 4.36 | 1.8 |
| Griffin Canning | 23 | 17 | 17 | 88.1 | 25.3% | 7.8% | 1.32 | .272 | 75.7% | 36.7% | 12.3% | 4.18 | 4.26 | 4.73 | 1.4 |
| Andrew Heaney | 28 | 18 | 18 | 95.1 | 28.9% | 7.3% | 1.89 | .312 | 75.5% | 33.6% | 18.3% | 4.91 | 4.63 | 4.18 | 1.2 |
None have an ERA under 4, the late Tyler Skaggs accrued the most WAR with 1.8.
Now lets take a look at what Stripling did, albeit he was bounced between the bullpen and the rotation.
| Season | Team | W | L | SV | G | GS | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | EV | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WA |
He immediately becomes the best or 2nd best pitcher in the Angel’s rotation (if you want to discount the bullpen innings). The lack of pitching depth has long been a problem for the Angels, and for that fact alone this deal needed to get done.
Lets check in with Joc Pederson.
| Season | Team | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | EV | BsR | Off | Def | WAR |
A solid season for Joc, the defense plays at all 3 OF spots, although it really only needs to play in the corners since CF is being played by a future HOFer.
And this is how the Angels depth chart stacked up in 2019:
| Name | Age | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | BsR | Off | Def | WAR |
| Mike Trout | 27 | 134 | 600 | 45 | 11 | 18.3% | 20.0% | .353 | .298 | .291 | .438 | .645 | .436 | 180 | 7.1 | 68.2 | -0.3 | 8.6 |
| David Fletcher | 25 | 154 | 653 | 6 | 8 | 8.4% | 9.8% | .094 | .317 | .290 | .350 | .384 | .318 | 99 | -0.8 | -1.4 | 13.6 | 3.4 |
| Kole Calhoun | 31 | 152 | 632 | 33 | 4 | 11.1% | 25.6% | .236 | .265 | .232 | .325 | .467 | .330 | 108 | -1.2 | 4.8 | -1.1 | 2.5 |
| Tommy La Stella | 30 | 80 | 321 | 16 | 0 | 6.2% | 8.7% | .192 | .282 | .295 | .346 | .486 | .351 | 122 | -0.1 | 8.9 | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| Brian Goodwin | 28 | 136 | 458 | 17 | 7 | 8.3% | 28.2% | .208 | .337 | .262 | .326 | .470 | .332 | 109 | 2.2 | 7.5 | -4.4 | 1.9 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 24 | 106 | 425 | 18 | 12 | 7.8% | 25.9% | .219 | .354 | .286 | .343 | .505 | .352 | 123 | 1.4 | 13.7 | -9.9 | 1.8 |
| Andrelton Simmons | 29 | 103 | 424 | 7 | 10 | 5.7% | 8.7% | .101 | .277 | .264 | .309 | .364 | .290 | 81 | -1.7 | -12.2 | 14.8 | 1.7 |
| Luis Rengifo | 22 | 108 | 406 | 7 | 2 | 9.9% | 22.9% | .126 | .300 | .238 | .321 | .364 | .298 | 86 | 0.5 | -6.7 | 4.3 | 1.2 |
All highlighted players played at least 40 games in the OF*
Joc immediately becomes the 3rd best position player on the roster, and the best OF not named Trout. Upton was out for the year, but was worth 3.1 WAR in 2018. At best it’s a tie for 3rd best position player/2nd best OF on the roster. Disclaimer: Calhoun was allowed to walk in free agency and Fletcher is primarily at 2B. So Joc not only would have filled a want but in fact a need for a team trying not to waste Trout’s prime years.
But you might say, what about the Angels top prospect and unanimous top 10 prospect Jo Adell? Jo Adell struck out at a 41.7% clip and accrued -1.3 WAR, it is now clear he needs more seasoning.
All in all, in a traditional season, Pederson and Stripling’s projections have them contributing roughly 5 WAR to an Angel’s team that desperately needed it. Add in Rendon and Bundy and this team is in shouting distance of a wild card spot in a traditional season. The Dodgers were always going to be good, this deal would have only reshuffled their overflowing deck of good baseball players. However, for the Angels, this deal was a net loss for a team that was and still is in desperate need for upgrades.
-Evan Brown
