The Legacy of Mike Trout
Los Angeles Angels GM Perry Minasian said recently that Mike Trout will not be traded this offseason. Specifically, he said, “Right now, he’s our center fielder. He’s had injuries, but I don’t necessarily believe it’s because of playing center field. His hamate injury was not because he was tracking balls in center field. But if we asked Mike to play left, right or even third, he’d do it. It’s about the team and making it as good as it gets. But we haven’t had any discussions.”
It’s funny that Minasian casually, and surely facetiously, tossed third base into the mix considering that’s the spot of Anthony Rendon, who has missed even more games to injuries than Mike Trout over the last few years. Minasian made his comments on Trout because there have been suggestions that the team might as well trade Trout since they’re lost free agent Shohei Ohtani to the cross-town rivals, of all people. It may be time to start over in Anaheim and give Trout a fresh start elsewhere.
As baseball fans know, Mike Trout missed significant time with an injury in 2023, making it three straight years with IL stints. Since the start of the 2021 season, he has played in just 237 of the Angels’ 486 games. That’s 49 percent and helps explain why the Angels have played at a 74-88 pace over those three seasons despite having two of the greatest players who ever lived, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani.
Missing time with an injury is not new for Trout, but it wasn’t always this way. After playing 40 games in the major leagues as a 19-year-old in 2011, Trout started the 2012 season in AAA before being promoted to the show on April 28. He went on to play in 139 of the team’s remaining 142 games. He continued to post consistently for the next four years, playing 157, 157, 159, and 159 games. He wasn’t going after the ironman streaks of Lou Gehrig or Cal Ripken, Jr., but only three players in baseball played more games than Trout from 2013 through 2016 (Evan Longoria, Kyle Seager, and Robinson Canó).
During this ascendent part of his career, Trout established himself as one of the greatest young players of all time, right there with such legendary names as Ty Cobb, Mel Ott, Rogers Hornsby, Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams, and Jimmie Foxx. Consider where Trout ranked in FanGraphs WAR through the following ages:
Most WAR through age 21:
- Mike Trout, 20.9
- Mel Ott, 19.2
- Ty Cobb, 16.1
- Al Kaline, 15.0
- Rogers Hornsby, 14.6
Most WAR through age 22:
- Mike Trout, 29.2
- Ty Cobb, 25.9
- Mel Ott, 25.1
- Ted Williams, 24.6
- Jimmie Foxx, 20.9
Most WAR through age 23:
- Mike Trout, 38.5
- Ty Cobb, 36.2
- Ted Williams, 36.2
- Mel Ott, 33.2
- Mickey Mantle, 29.5
Most WAR through age 24:
- Ty Cobb, 47.2
- Mike Trout, 47.2
- Mickey Mantle, 41.1
- Mel Ott, 38.6
- Jimmie Foxx, 37.3
Through age-24, at the end of the 2016 season, Trout was right there with Ty Cobb on the list of greatest young players in baseball history. He was a perennial all-star and Silver Slugger Award winner, while also winning the 2012 AL Rookie of the Year Award and AL MVP awards in 2014 and 2016. He finished second in AL MVP voting in 2012, 2013, and 2015.
On the field, he led the league in runs scored four times in his first five full seasons, RBI once, stolen bases once, and finished in the top four in wRC+ in five consecutive seasons (wRC+ is an offensive metric that credits a hitter for each outcome of his plate appearances and is set so that 100 is league average and a number above 100 means the player was that far above league average). He already had a career’s worth of accolades and wasn’t yet 25 years old. Mike Trout’s future was as bright as any young player in the history of baseball.
Trout’s first major injury came on May 29, 2017, during his age-25 season when he tore a ligament in his left thumb while sliding into second base on a stolen base attempt. It looks simple enough watching the video. He just slid too hard into the base and didn’t have one of those oven mitt sliding gloves to protect his hand. The injury cost him 39 games, about a quarter of a season. He still finished the season with 6.3 WAR, but dropped a bit behind Cobb on the “best position players through age 25” leaderboard.
Most WAR through age 25:
- Ty Cobb, 56.3
- Mike Trout, 53.5
- Mickey Mantle, 52.5
- Jimmie Foxx, 47.1
- Rogers Hornsby, 46.7
In 2018, Trout was having another incredible season when he was once again injured on a slide. This time, he jammed his wrist during a feet-first slide into third base in a game against Tampa Bay on August 1. He missed 19 games, but his 9.5 WAR in 140 games was still second among position players to only Mookie Betts and he gained some ground on Ty Cobb despite the injury.
Most WAR through age 26:
- Ty Cobb, 63.5
- Mike Trout, 63.0
- Mickey Mantle, 61.3
- Rogers Hornsby, 57.2
- Jimmie Foxx, 55.9
Trout didn’t go on the IL in 2019. He played in 134 games, had 600 plate appearances and led MLB position players in WAR, at 8.3, while winning his third AL MVP Award. This allowed him to jump back ahead of Ty Cobb on the leaderboard, now for position players through age 27.
Most WAR through age 27:
- Mike Trout, 71.4
- Ty Cobb, 68.8
- Mickey Mantle, 67.9
- Jimmie Foxx, 64.4
- Rogers Hornsby, 64.2
The shortened 2020 season was a hit to Trout’s placement on the “best position players through age X” standings. He was healthy enough to play in 53 of the Angels’ 60 games, but his 160 wRC+ was the lowest of any full season of his career to that point and he finished with 2.5 WAR, which ranked ninth in MLB among position players. That’s still great, but not greatest. We’ll never know for sure, but the shortened season may have cost him 3 to 5 WAR. By season’s end, he had dropped behind Cobb, Hornsby, and Mantle on the “best position players through age 28” leaderboard.
Most WAR through age 28:
- Ty Cobb, 78.6
- Rogers Hornsby, 76.4
- Mickey Mantle, 74.8
- Mike Trout, 73.9
- Jimmie Foxx, 71.0
It’s easy to forget now because of what happened later in the season, but Mike Trout came out of the gate scorching hot in 2021. He hit 6 homers, scored 15 runs, and had 14 RBI in his first 18 games, while hitting .426/.540/.820. He had an incredible 255 wRC+. He slowed down a bit over the next few weeks, but was still hitting .333/.466/.624 and leading the league in wRC+ (189) and WAR (2.2) through May 17. He was back in his rightful place as the best player of his generation.
Then another injury hit. It seemed innocuous at first. Trout felt something in his calf and walked gingerly off the field at the end of an inning. It was initially reported that he would miss six-to-eight weeks. Instead, he missed the rest of the season; 122 games. Before the injury, Trout played in 36 of the Angels’ 40 games and looked well on his way to another 8-WAR season instead of the 2.2 WAR he finished with. His rankings on the “most WAR” leaderboard took another hit.
Most WAR through age 29:
- Rogers Hornsby, 87.1
- Ty Cobb, 86.4
- Mickey Mantle, 85.1
- Babe Ruth, 78.5
- Alex Rodriguez, 77.7
- Mel Ott, 76.8
- Mike Trout, 76.1
- Jimmie Foxx, 75.1
- Albert Pujols, 70.6
- Tris Speaker, 70.1
Heading into the 2022 season, Mike Trout had spent time on the IL for two injuries suffered during slides and an unusual strained calf injury that was slow to heal. It was unusual because there didn’t seem to be one specific move that caused it. The 2022 season began and Trout was good, but statistically not the best player in baseball as the calendar approached mid-July. Through July 12, he was sixth in wRC+ and 11th in WAR among position players. He was still slugging the ball as well as ever (.599 SLG), but his on-base percentage was surprisingly low for him, at .368.
Then, sadly, another injury. After coming out of a game on July 12, Trout was initially diagnosed with back spasms, but his IL designation was rib cage inflammation. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reported that Trout had a rare condition called “costovertebral dysfunction at T5.” There was some concern that it would be a career-threatening injury, but Trout returned to the lineup in August and hit .308/.370/.688 (191 wRC+) over his last 40 games. Despite only playing in 119 games, Trout was worth 6 WAR in 2022 and moved up a spot on the “best position players through age 30” list.
Most WAR through age 30:
- Ty Cobb, 97.9
- Rogers Hornsby, 91.6
- Mickey Mantle, 91.1
- Jimmie Foxx, 83.3
- Mel Ott, 82.4
- Mike Trout, 82.1
- Babe Ruth, 82.1
- Alex Rodriguez, 81.5
- Albert Pujols, 77.3
- Ted Williams, 76.4
That brings us to 2023, Trout’s age-31 season. Trout played in 81 of the Angels’ first 87 games, but he wasn’t his typical self. He came into the season with a career batting line of .303/.415/.587, good for a 172 wRC+. Through his first 81 games, he was hitting .263/.369/.493, a 134 wRC+, which was by far the lowest of his career other than his 40-game stretch as a 19-year-old in 2011. He was valued at 3.0 WAR, 12th in baseball. Still good, but not your typical healthy Mike Trout ranking.
On July 3, Trout took a swing on a Nick Martinez pitch and suffered an injury. The next day, he was placed on the IL with a fractured hamate bone in his left hand. He was expected to miss 6-to-8 weeks. He missed seven weeks, then came back and played just one game before going back on the IL. He never got back on the field and another season ended early for him. He finished with 3.0 WAR. Despite all of the missed time due to injuries and the shortened 2020 season, Trout is still in the top ten in WAR among position players through the age of 31, between Mel Ott and Lou Gehrig.
Most WAR through age 31:
- Ty Cobb, 104.4
- Rogers Hornsby, 102.0
- Mickey Mantle, 94.4
- Babe Ruth, 93.9
- Alex Rodriguez, 91.1
- Jimmie Foxx, 90.6
- Mel Ott, 87.4
- Mike Trout, 85.1
- Lou Gehrig, 84.5
- Willie Mays, 83.8
- Hank Aaron, 83.3
- Eddie Mathews, 81.8
- Barry Bonds, 81.8
- Stan Musial, 81.4
- Albert Pujols, 81.3
Where Does Trout Go from Here?
Mike Trout is already a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but with his recent injury history it’s interesting to consider where he will end up on the all-time WAR leaderboard. The chart below left shows the top 20 players in WAR through age-31, where they finished in career WAR, their career WAR rank, and the WAR they earned from age 32 on. The chart below right shows the top 20 in all-time career WAR.
Mike Trout has seven years left on his contract with the Angels, which covers his age-32 through age-38 seasons. He was a 6 WAR player in 119 games in 2022. He was worth 3 WAR in 82 games played this year, which would make him roughly a 5-WAR player if he was healthy enough to play 130-140 games. This could be who he is now. If he ages at least somewhat typically going forward, he could add another 25 WAR by the time his contract with the Angels is over. That would put him in the range of a top-15 player all-time, right there with Mickey Mantle and Mel Ott.
What would be the most-optimistic scenario? Well, there’s Barry Bonds, who is the all-time leader in WAR from age 32 on, with 82.6 WAR. He basically had two Hall of Fame careers, which some might consider pre-PED use and post-PED use, although there were other contributing factors to the high-offense of that time. This website by statistical analyst Eric Walker is a deep dive into the issue of steroids and baseball.
Other players on this list had good late-career runs. Willie Mays was very good in his 30s, with six seasons with 5 WAR or greater from age 32 on. Hank Aaron had seven seasons with 5 WAR or greater from age 32 on. Ted Williams had five such seasons and was essentially just as good an older hitter as he was a younger hitter (188 wRC+ from age 20 to 31; 185 wRC+ from age 32 on).
There were also some notable players who didn’t age as well. Mickey Mantle had nine straight seasons with at least 6 WAR from age-22 through age-30, then never reached that level again. He retired after his age-36 season. Albert Pujols, Trout’s longtime teammate on the Angels, began his career with 10 straight years with at least 5 WAR, then never reached 5 WAR again. He was below replacement-level in five of his last eight seasons.
Then there was Ken Griffey, Jr., who had 75.7 WAR through age 31, good for 20th all-time through age 31. Although he continued to hit a good number of home runs, injuries limited his playing time and his defense took a major hit, which cut into his value. He had just one above-average season from age 32 on, along with five below replacement-level seasons, and finished with 77.7 WAR, ranking 42nd all-time among position players.
Despite all the recent injuries and missed time, Mike Trout is still more likely than not to finish his career as a top-20 position player all-time. If the second half of his career is more like Willie Mays or Hank Aaron than Albert Pujols or Ken Griffey, Jr., he could still crack the top five.
