St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals Could Have the Top 1-2 Punch in Baseball

By Kevin Bradley

Posted on February 11, 2019

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The St. Louis Cardinals went out and made a blockbuster trade to bolster the top of their lineup this offseason.  The acquisition of Paul Goldschmidt brings an additional threat to the offense, with an added bonus of a 3-time Gold Glove at first base.  It will be interesting to see where the Cardinals slot him in the order, as most of his plate appearances came in the third spot with the D-Backs.  However, teams are embracing the concept of batting their best hitters after the leadoff to ensure they get more plate appearances.  If the Cardinals’ skipper shares this mindset, the Redbirds arguably have the best one-two punch in the league with Matt Carpenter hitting in front of the six-time All-Star. 

St. Louis posted 100.3 runs created (RC) from the two-spot in the 2018 season, tenth among all MLB teams in this particular split.  Three players made up 515 of the total 664 plate appearances (PA) indicating a need for consistency in that spot in the order.  Although he may not have vast experience batting second, Goldschmidt projects much better than the Cardinals earlier solutions.  In 2018, while batting second, he produced over half of the Cards’ RC in a third of the opportunities, creating 56.8 runs in 220 plate appearances. 

Goldschmidt has limited experience batting second in the order at the MLB level. The 2018 season is the only time he was penciled in as the two-hitter, other than one plate appearance in 2012.  According to Baseball Reference, he found the most success in this position, producing a better slash line (.349/.432/.672), batting average on balls in play (.385) and hitting more home runs than any other spot.  Goldschmidt is in an elite category, placing eighth in runs created (RC) among players who had at least 200 plate appearances batting second in 2018.  

Unlike the limited split-data with Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter has plenty of experience batting in the leadoff position.  His career split consists of 3,116 PA and a slash line of .287/.389/.495.  The veteran is a multi-faceted leadoff.  Carp demonstrates patience at the plate by leading the Cardinals’ roster in walks and OBP and also providing power and run support with 36 home runs in 2018.  He is also one of five players in MLB history to not ground into a double play in a season with over 500 PA, accomplishing the feat in 2018.  This is an assuring stat to have with Goldschmidt on-deck and runners on-base.   With these tools, he has managed to average 86.2 runs created per season from over the last five years, finishing in the top ten each year among players with 200+ PA batting first. 

The best possible combination of a one and two hitter based on runs created in 2018 would be a pairing of Mookie Betts at leadoff and Christian Yelich batting next.  Each superstar had an amazing year offensively and carried their team to the playoffs.  Below are the player comparisons in runs created in their respective order position, broken down per plate appearance to account for PA disparity:

The new and improved Cardinals lineup compares relatively well to the hypothetical scenario.  Mookie Betts has averaged 98.55 RC over the past four seasons, making the amazing 2018 season an anomaly in this instance.  Francisco Lindor is the next leadoff hitter with the highest runs created, producing only .164 RC/PA in 2018.  This indicates Carpenter and Goldschmidt could become the best one-two combination on the same team in all of baseball.

The Cardinals lacked a proven, star two-hitter in 2018. The trade for the six-time All-Star was a great way to boost run production to compete in a competitive NL Central. With Carp’s proven ability at lead off and Goldschmidt’s elite bat following on deck, the tandem is undoubtedly a two-headed monster at the top of the Cardinals’ lineup.

-Kevin Bradley