Nelson Cruz is a 33 year old corner outfielder with no speed who doesn’t hit for average at all and is coming off a 50 game suspension for steroids. Common sense just screams ‘steer clear’ of this player; who knows how effective he’ll be presumably steroid free? Corner outfielders in their mid 30’s aren’t exactly a hot commodity in the world of Major League Baseball.
For better or for worse, however, common sense rarely has a place at the table in the realm of publicly funded stadiums and 31 year old infielders represented by narcotics/music/hospitality moguls seeking $300 million contracts spanning a decade plus. Nellie Cruz, the afore-described player, rejected today a $14.1 million offer from the Texas Rangers and is now a free agent, off to see what heights his market value might reach. The remarkable thing isn’t that Cruz rejected the offer from Texas, it’s that he made the right call when he did it. He will undoubtedly make more than $14.1 million this winter, even if it’s not all in one season.
Cruz, you see, has one attribute that almost nobody else on the free agent market can boast. He hit for power from the right side of the plate. In fact, in his 109 game, suspension shortened 2013, Cruz socked 29 homers and even made the All-Star team. Despite the questions surrounding post-suspension Cruz, the allure of his power in a barren market will net him a pretty penny and in all likelihood a multi-year deal.
Let’s take a look at a few teams that might be knocking on his door:
Texas Rangers: Yes, this is the team that Cruz just walked away from, but that doesn’t mean that they might not find themselves reunited under new terms. Rumor has it that the Rangers may be going for broke in 2014. After disappointing ends to 2012 and 2013, they may see their window of contention as closing rapidly and might decide that this is their last, best shot at a title. With that thought in mind, Texas has already been linked to everybody this offseason, from David Price and Masahiro Tanaka to Brian McCann and Jacoby Elsbury. Perhaps another ride on the Cruzmobile might not be such a bad idea.
Texas has a hitter’s ballpark and they know exactly what they’d be getting with Nelson. If they offered him a longer term deal, they might be able to capitalize on his remaining peak years for less than the $14.1 they offered. Additionally, the potential loss of a draft pick obviously wouldn’t be in play. I could see Cruz going back to Texas on a Shane Victorino-esqe 3 year, $39 million deal. (Maybe 4 years at $44)
Pittsburgh Pirates: Ok, before you say anything: I already know. I put the Pirates into literally every player movement column I write. I’ve linked them to everyone from Carl Crawford to Paul Konerko to Johan Santana. But in my defense, all my proposals have made sense. A lot of sense. Plus, the Pirates are a really fun team to write about because their are so many interesting ways to tweak their roster. Let’s look at Cruz.
The Pirates traded for Marlon Byrd last season to help fill a black hole in right field. Byrd helped, but he had a career year last season and I think it would be a lot to ask him to replicate that for a team with obvious playoff aspirations. Cruz, a right fielder, is a much less risky investment, steroid stuff aside. If the Pirates were to make a move on him, they could be pretty confident that he’d produce about a .260 average and 20-25 homers, factoring in how much more difficult it is to hit a ball out in Pittsburgh than Texas. (Maybe you can bump that up to 23-27 with Pedro Alvarez protecting him against National League pitching.) That’s pretty good! And would fit nicely into the Pirates lineup behind Andrew McCutchen.
The only issue is, would the Pirates be willing to fork over the cash for cCruz, knowing that it would take a 3 or 4 year commitment and somewhere near $40 million and a draft pick? Gun to my head, I’d have to say no. *sad face*
New York Mets: One big reason that the Mets can be linked to Cruz is that they wouldn’t have to surrender a first round pick if they signed him. The Metropolitans were one of baseball’s 10 worst teams last season and, as such, their pick is protected. They would only have to give up a second rounder for Cruz.
The Mets have a good deal of money to spend (so much that they’ve even been linked to Robinson Cano) in large part due to the fact that they only have 2 players (David Wright and Jon Niese) under contract past this season. Thus the Mets, who would welcome some consistency in the outfield after a few years of Lucas Duda and Matt Den Dekker, shouldn’t be afraid of the commitment that Cruz would demand.
For a team with the Mets’ aspirations and payroll potential, Cruz could and should be a complimentary piece and not a building block. He only makes sense in New York if the Mets plan on seriously contending in the next couple of seasons and if they plan to make some more big moves to make it happen.
Seattle Mariners: The Mariners need offense in a bad way and they are willing to overpay to lure free agents to the Northwest. This makes them a pretty good match for Cruz. He however, is not a great match for them and wouldn’t be a good signing for a team in their position. The potential for a high profile, high value Nelson Cruz contract to blow up in spectacular Michael Morse fashion is too great and if that were to happen, it would likely drag down the already precariously positioned Seattle front office. Don’t rule it out though.
When the dust settles, one thing is certain: Nelson Cruz will be comfortably sitting atop a pile of money, likely around $40 Mil, and will be looking back at the 50-game vacation he took last season with nothing but fond memories.
-Max Frakel
Stat of the Day: At the tone, the date will be: 11.12.13. Beep.
