Jesus Aguilar: An All Star -And Possible MVP- You Should Know
The Brew Crew got off to a hot start in 2017 leading the division at the All-Star break, 5.5 games ahead of the, then defending champion, Chicago Cubs. But as we all know, standings never look the same in July as they do in October. The trade deadline came and went, only adding bullpen depth in the form of Anthony Swarzak and Jared Jeffress. The Brewers 2017 ended without a playoff berth (only a game back of the Rockies for the second WC spot) and in disappointment. Regardless of how it ended, we saw what this crew could do, and the strong finish, coupled with a huge offseason that netted Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, and others, it led to a growing sense of optimism in the clubhouse for the 2018 season.
Fast-forward to the present and the Brewers are in a similar position as 2017, playing well- 1.5 games behind the Cubs, and in the first wild-card spot, and maybe even the best team in the NL. However, it’s not only the shiny new toys, Yelich and Cain, leading this team, its slugger Jesus Aguilar fronting the charge.
Aguilar is leading the national league in home runs (24), second in runs batted in (68), eighth in BA (.307), top 15 in OBP (.375), and first in SLG (.644). The next closest slugging percentage in the NL is .592 by Nolan Arenado of the Colorado Rockies. It’s clear to see that it shouldn’t have come down to a final vote to get Aguilar into the mid-summer classic, he is arguably the best first baseman in the NL right now and possibly the best player.
Aguilar is a clear an example of how flawed the all-star selection process is, he is somehow a potential all-star snub and an MVP candidate all at the same time. The All-Star game is basically a popularity competition where the large market teams tend to see their less deserving players make the roster at the expense of those more deserving players from small market teams.
It’s crazy to think this guy wasn’t even given a starting job out of spring training. During Spring Training, the trade for Yelich and signing of Cain (two all-star caliber outfielders) seemed to push veteran Ryan Braun to first/outfield platoon with 2017 breakout Brewers Eric Thames and Domingo Santana. There just seemed to be no room to play Aguilar. But this baseball and players get hurt all the time. Aguilar managed to get his fair share of starts (even some at third) and that led to the more consistent playing time he needed to become the monster we know today.
He spent the first eight years of his career in the Indians farm system slowly making his way through the organization, debuting in 2014. He didn’t see much time in the bigs as he bounced between the majors and minors from 2014 and 2016, only amassing 64 PA for the Indians. He was released after 2016, a year in which he led Triple-A in home runs with 30. The Brewers picked him up as a potential back up to newly signed KBO superstar, Eric Thames. Given that he was a backup, he only had 311 PA in 2017. But man did he show a knack for hitting the ball far with 16 home runs and 52 RBI.
The advanced stats show some insight as to why Aguilar is building on the minor success he saw last season and experiencing a breakout this season. is hard, medium, soft hit percentage are virtually the same as last season, 46.3%, 39.5%, and 14.2%, respectively.
However, this is not the case when you look at his batted ball distribution numbers. Aguilar has begun to pull the ball at a higher rate, which is more similar to his minor league numbers. Comparing it to 2017, his first real taste of consistent major league action, we see he is pulling the ball 48.8% of the time as opposed to 38.8%, all while smoothing the distribution of balls more equally to the opposite field and back up the middle. When a player changes their approach to pull the ball more it usually means more home runs, but may lead to players selling out by striking out more, getting an overall feast or famine mentality.
Aguilar, however, has managed to decrease his strikeout percentage while increasing his walk rate and batting average. This is backed by the type of ball he puts into play. He hits 44.7% FB%, 31.1% GB%, and 24.2% LD%. Below you can see a batted ball distribution chart provided by FanGraphs. This is a drastic change from 2017 where he had 37.8% FB%, 41.0% GB%, and 21.3% LD%. In today’s game, you will do more damage if you can lift the ball with power while decreasing the total amount of balls hit on the ground.
Not only does Aguilar’s approach at the plate allow him to hit more home runs, it also allows him to maintain a high average as well. If he continues on this trend and the Brewers can hold on this year to make the playoffs then you shouldn’t be surprised to see Aguilar’s name being discussed up there with Freddie Freeman, Nolan Arenado, and Paul Goldschmidt for NL MVP honors.
– Brendan Cusack
