Are the Atlanta Braves due for a regression?
In a detailed piece for ESPN’s MLB page, staff writer Bradford Doolittle writes about how, while we tend to think about a player’s trade value in terms of their likelihood, following the All-Star Break, to “regress” negatively toward the mean. The popular use of the term carries a cynical connotation that belies the idea that regression accounts not only for downward statistical movement, but upward correction as well.
This discussion of semantics segues into Doolittle’s broader concerns with regression and valuing talent based on their recent history as opposed to merely current-year performance. It’s an interesting analysis if you have the time, but another topic related to regression contained within the same article is what drew my attention. Doolittle also compared players’ wins above replacement with their preseason projected WAR at this point in the campaign, to gauge which “contenders”—Doolittle admits to being somewhat loose with this distinction—are due for a net positive regression, and which contending teams are due to move down in the standings.
On the positive dimension, the Minnesota Twins (2.84), Los Angeles Angels (2.52), Colorado Rockies (2.27), St. Louis Cardinals (1.88), and Chicago Cubs (1.87) are due for the biggest correction. For a team like the Cubs that already ranked among the National League’s best, this is especially good news for management. On the flip side, the New York Yankees (-2.60), Boston Red Sox (-2.22), Seattle Mariners (-2.00), and Milwaukee Brewers (-1.66) are due for a net negative expected WAR regression.
One team, though, above all others, is due for the biggest expected regression in terms of WAR—and a negative regression at that. That would be the Atlanta Braves, who are somewhat unexpectedly vying for an NL East division title with the Philadelphia Phillies, but their preseason projections indicate that they should be roughly 6.41 wins short. As of July 20, the Braves had managed a +71 run differential, good for third-best in the National League behind the Chicago Cubs (+104) and Los Angeles Dodgers (+84). This is thanks in large part to an offense that ranks top-10 in Major League Baseball in runs, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.
So, are the 2018 Atlanta Braves the proverbial paper tiger, or are they primed to hang in with the rest of the power players in the National League postseason picture? Let’s take a closer look at the relevant qualifiers on both sides of the ball, with a special nod to two players who might be strong candidates for a statistical decline:
Perhaps the most obvious candidate for a downward regression is Nick Markakis, a veteran of 12 years in the majors (and possible candidate for 3,000 hits) who just earned his first trip to the All-Star Game. Markakis, in terms of wins above replacement, is having his best season since 2008 (7.1 WAR) in Baltimore, when he managed a career year in terms of runs scored (106), on top of an .897 OPS and 10 steals. 10 years later, Markakis is no longer a threat on the basepaths, but with 121 hits, 10 HR, 62 RBI, and an .872 OPS through 95 games played, he’s a team leader in multiple categories, and sports a 3.1 WAR.
Since coming to Atlanta in 2015 and prior to the start of this season, Markakis averaged a 1.42 OWAR and -0.77 DWAR. These numbers did not exactly presage an All-Star caliber season to this point, and with the Braves’ struggles in recent years, Markakis’s regular residency in the cleanup spot in team lineups seemed like more of a joke than legitimate strategy. His year-to-date OWAR, in particular, is more than a win better than his average since he began with Atlanta.
Is Nick Markakis due for a statistical decline? Markakis’s .323 batting average is high compared to his .289 lifetime mark, though that commendable career average suggests that the Braves outfielder excels at making contact and isn’t beholden to a power stroke (Markakis has never had more than 23 home runs in a season, and that was in 2007 in Baltimore) or stadiums that favors hitters (according to 2018 MLB park factors, SunTrust Park has actually been below average across offensive categories). His BABIP, which FanGraphs places at .342, also doesn’t seem radically different than his career mark of .318.
What’s changed? According to Markakis, his timing has simply gotten better, so it may be that an already-good player has improved thanks to smaller adjustments in his approach and hard work. It also helps that there are more credible batters hitting in the spots before him these days.
We’ve never seen Mike Foltynewicz pitch at the level he’s pitching at before. His 2.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP stand in stark contrast to his prior numbers with Houston and Atlanta. His pre-2018 career numbers were as follows: 4.87 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 8.1 K/9.
What’s different for Foltynewicz this year? One stat that jumps out with Foltynewicz’s 2018 profile is his K/9 rate. Since managing a 6.75 K/9 rate in limited duty with the Astros in 2014, he has steadily and incrementally improved each year that he’s been with the Braves. This season, he has seen his mark increase from 8.36 to 10.62 strikeouts per nine innings, putting him just below Jacob deGrom among qualifiers, and better than the likes of Blake Snell and Luis Severino in this category. That’s good company right there, and alongside his stellar ERA and WHIP, this suggests, at least at face value, that he has the stuff to be an elite pitcher in this league. In all, batters are hitting less, slugging less, and getting on base less often in 2018 against Foltynewicz than they have in years past.
Whereas Nick Markakis may have found something in watching video to aid him in getting into a groove, helping to dispel fears of the regression monster rearing its ugly head, however, Mike Foltynewicz may be overdue for a correction not so much in his favor. As Al Melchior writes about in a recent piece for FanGraphs, Foltynewicz may be enjoying a better K/9 rate in 2018, but without significant improvement to his swinging strike rate from previous iterations. In other words, while an All-Star reserve this campaign, “Folty” has to prove he can consistently strike out batters and pitch deep into games before we throw him in with the likes of Corey Kluber and Zack Greinke.
Melchoir’s stat-based approach seems to contradict the more detailed analysis that our Sean Morash performed in April that seemed to indicate that Folty had developed a new changeup that could be making him more effective. Folty is still getting things done with his changeup; hitters still have just a 62 wRC+ against the pitch. The larger point remains: Folty is a half step below the best in the league regardless of how you slice the numbers; he’s only going 5.2 innings per start. Corey Kluber is averaging 6.2 and Max Scherzer nearly 7.
The Rest of the Roster
What about the other veterans on the roster who qualify for the batting title or ERA title? Based on their track record, we would tend to expect more of the same production, if not better. Freddie Freeman, a fellow All-Star, has consistently produced at a high level for half a decade, and seems poised for his third straight season of .300+/.400.+/.500+ offense, accompanied by defense that is more than passable for a regular starter. Julio Teheran, seemingly no longer in the discussion of being a true “ace,” is nonetheless someone who can reliably take the ball for the Braves and is among their best options in terms of quality starts. Ender Inciarte, who has hit most frequently out of the top spot in the lineup but has also spent a fair amount of time in spots 6 – 9, has not played to his offensive potential thus far based on his past performance. These regulars should continue to anchor upstart Atlanta as they push for the postseason.
As for the other qualified players on the list, it’s hard to say if they can maintain their current level of play because their tenures at the big show have been comparatively brief. Ozzie Albies has not even spent a full season’s worth of games with the major-league club. Dansby Swanson has more experience, but is not far statistically in 2018 from his career batting average of .248 (262 games played). Sean Newcomb, who owned a 2.70 ERA and 8-2 record on June 16, is winless since, sporting an 0-3 record and 9.75 ERA in the month of July. Is this a blip on the radar, or is the league beginning to adjust to Newcomb?
As Bradford Doolittle indicates, this expected WAR regression is likely misleading, since there are young players in key roles who may not even have been expected to be starters at this point, let alone maturing enough to produce on a contending team. Just the same, as Doolittle stresses, that’s a lot of regression to work around. With the Philadelphia Phillies conspicuously absent from this list, that concern is only magnified.
Still, in terms of a negative regression or decline, the Atlanta Braves seem as poised to weather any turbulence over the team’s remaining games as any organization. They have gotten consistent production not only from models of consistency like Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis, but other veteran role players such as Kurt Suzuki and Charlie Culberson, as well as younger additions like Johan Camargo. Barring any significant injuries or an appreciable decline in a relief staff that has, by and large, answered the bell this season, they’re in good position to return to the postseason in 2018.
By Joseph Mangano
