Every Major Award Winner Will Come From the Eastern Divisions
This year’s MLB awards season will likely end up as one of the most exciting ones in recent memory, with the majority of the most significant awards (MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year) having several worthy candidates in both leagues. However, all of these prestigious races will likely have a similar outcome: the winners will come from the eastern divisions. This isn’t east coast bias, it’s just the most probable trajectory based on the awards’ candidates and front runners. Let’s take a closer look:
National League Rookie of the Year
The National League race for Rookie of the Year may be the least competitive of all the races, but even then, the majority of the candidates can be found in the NL East. Juan Soto of the Nationals looks like the clear cut favorite to win the award, and his 2.7 WAR leads all rookies across both leagues.
What might come as a surprise to most fans is that probable runner up Ronald Acuna Jr. actually has played in fewer games than his division rival. Acuna’s recent hot streak of homering in five straight games and the Braves’ likely playoff berth could make this race closer, and Acuna has better slugging numbers thanks to his 19 homers, which beats Soto’s 15. But Soto has an OBP nearly 80 points higher, walks more (17.2% compared to 7.3%) and strike outs less (18.8% compared to 28%) than Acuna.
Other notable candidates are Brian Anderson of the Marlins (another eastern candidate), the Dodgers’ Walker Buehler, Christian Villanueva of the Padres, Dereck Rodriguez from San Francisco, and Harrison Bader and Jack Flaherty from St. Louis.
American League Rookie of the Year
The potential winner of this award seems to have been narrowed down to two players months ago, as Yankees’ sensations Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres have both had huge offensive years. It’s hard to imagine the award going to anyone other than these two studs, and the numbers certainly point to Andujar bringing the award to New York yet again, after Aaron Judge won the honor last year.
Andujar’s 58 RBI’s lead all rookies, and he beats Torres in batting average, OBP, and slugging. Shohei Ohtani probably presents a more competitive candidate for Andujar, as he leads all American League rookies with a .522 slugging percentage and ranks in the top 5 with 12 homeruns. However, Andujar has outperformed Ohtani in every category except slugging, which he only trails by .06 points. An argument can be made that Ohtani’s quality (yet limited) pitching appearances makes him a more valuable player, but the same argument can be made that Andujar actually plays defense every day, thought the numbers don’t favor his defensive abilities.
A wild card in this race could be the A’s Lou Trivino, who has dominated as their high leverage/set up guy, and his 1.59 ERA is a huge reason why Oakland sits just 1 game back of the Astros.
Other notable candidates are Texas’ Ronald Guzman, Lourdes Gurriel of Toronto, top notch defensive Houston Catcher Max Stassi, and the Rays’ Joey Wendle and Jake Bauers.
National League Cy Young Award
Four out of the top five ERA leaders in the National League currently belong to NL East aces. The front runner for the award is certainly Jacob deGrom, who leads all of baseball with a 1.81 ERA. However, he’s currently pitching for a potential last place team, a circumstance voters inexplicably take into account when voting for these big awards. However, last year we saw Giancarlo Stanton win MVP on a bad Marlins team, so the odds are still in his favor.
The player who could conceivably steal the award away from deGrom is Max Scherzer, who ranks second in ERA with a 2.19 mark. If the Nationals go on a run and jump back into the playoff race, Scherzer and his terrific season will surely move into the minds of the voters. Scherzer’s recent hot streak has made the race between him and deGrom closer, as he has gone 5-0 in his last 7 starts with a 2.25 ERA and 53 strikeouts compared to just 10 walks.
A potential spoiler in this race could be Aaron Nola, as the Phillies ace could be the only of the top three ERA leaders to make the playoffs. He has a dominant 2.28 ERA, and while he doesn’t strike out as many guys as deGrom or Scherzer, his groundball and homerun rates are equivalent to deGrom’s numbers.
Other notable candidates are Atlanta’s Mike Foltynewicz, Miles Mikolas of the Cardinals, Kyle Freeland of the Rockies, and the Diamonbacks’ Zack Grienke and Patrick Corbin.
American League Cy Young Winner
This is the category where things get interesting, mainly because the AL East doesn’t have as many potential candidates as the other divisions. And by “other divisions,” I mean the Astros and the Indians. The Astros have three potential starters who are all worthy of recognition. Charlie Morton has enjoyed a fine season, posting a 2.88 ERA, and Gerrit Cole has a 2.75 ERA and incredible 12.12 strikeout per nine in his first season in Houston.
However, the three pitchers who have the best shot at the award are Justin Verlander, Trevor Bauer, and Chris Sale. Verlander has dominated with a 2.52 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Bauer has an outstanding 2.22 ERA, though he was just placed on the 10-day DL. Yet the best starter in the American League so far has been Chris Sale, who is coming off an outing where he struck out 12 Orioles in only 5 innings. The start lowered his ERA to 1.97, and the southpaw has gone 6-0 in his last 7 starts with an astounding 0.20 ERA. This hot stretch has thrust him to the front of the Cy Young award race, though all three front runners have had great seasons and have already recorded over 200 strikeouts.
Other notable candidates are Luis Severino from the Yankees, Blake Treinen of the A’s, Blake Snell of the Rays, and Corey Kluber from the Indians.
National League MVP
There are probably two dozen players who are all deserving of this award. Matt Carpenter’s recent hot tear makes him an ideal candidate. Javier Baez leads the NL in RBI’s. And Nolan Arenado is batting over .300 with 30 homeruns. But perhaps the most deserving player is Freddie Freeman of the Atlanta Braves.
Freeman certainly has the numbers to back up his claim for the award. His .320 batting average only trails teammate Nick Markakis for the league lead, and he’s slugged 20 homeruns with 75 runs batted in. He only trails Matt Carpenter by 0.1 point for the league lead in WAR. He’s also second in the NL with a .400 OBP. He’s also a much needed veteran presence on a young Atlanta team that currently finds itself atop the NL East with a two game lead over the Phillies. Leadership isn’t quantifiable, but its undeniable that Freeman is the Braves unquestioned leader.
Other notable candidates are Paul Goldschmidt of the Diamondbacks and Jesus Aguilar, Christian Yelich, and Lorenzo Cain from the Brewers.
American League MVP
The Boston Red Sox are undoubtedly the best team in the majors, and so it’s no surprise that they currently have two MVP candidates. J.D. Martinez is having a monstrous offensive season in his first year in Boston, smashing 37 homeruns and 104 RBI with a month and a half to spare. His .333 batting average also ranks second in the American League. The leader in that category is his teammate, Mookie Betts, who should be considered as the frontrunner for the MVP award. He ranks first in the AL in average (.350) and slugging (.688), and second in OBP (.439) on top of great defensive work in the outfield. He’s the best player on the best team in baseball; this award is undoubtedly his to win.
Potential spoilers for the award of course include Mike Trout, who is putting together another Mike Trout season, ranking first in OBP (.459) along with a .309 average and 30 bombs. But his recent injury could allow Betts to pull away. Jose Ramirez could also challenge for the award, as he leads all American League players in WAR and has 36 homers and 89 RBI’s while batting over .300. The AL is filled with talented hitters, but it will be Betts to take home the award.
Other notable candidates are Matt Chapman of the Athletics, Francisco Lindor of Cleveland, and Aaron Judge of the Yankees.
