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Roster of the Month: Best Players of 2018

By Daniel R. Epstein

Posted on October 11, 2018

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Is it possible that Mike Trout is still improving? He just turned 27 in August, which is a perfectly normal age for a baseball player to enter his prime. A stint on the disabled list cost him about 20 games, which prevents us from realizing that this was possibly his best season ever. He set career highs in walk rate, wOBA and wRC+. His home runs pace would’ve bolstered his 39 homers above his previous career high of 41 if he hadn’t been hurt. He also went 24-26 in stolen base attempts.

In spite of this, Trout probably won’t win the MVP. Mookie Betts played even fewer games than Trout, but was just as incredible. He slashed .348/.436/.640, and his 185 wRC+ was right on Trout’s heels. With superior defense, he was the only player in baseball to surpass 10 fWAR.

If Trout and Betts hadn’t both dealt with injuries, maybe they could’ve each pushed the limits of what baseball players can accomplish. 11 or 12 WAR could’ve been possible. Even despite missing a chunk of games, they were far and away the two best players of 2018. They’re the headliners of October’s Roster of the Month, in which we create the best 25-man roster of 2018.

Lineup

1. RF Mookie Betts, BOS: Betts was the MLB leader in batting average (.346), slugging percentage (.640), and fWAR (10.4). He’s the prohibitive favorite to win the AL MVP.
2. CF Mike Trout, LAA: Trout led the league in walks (122), on-base percentage (.460), and wRC+ (191). Remarkably, he just keeps getting better and better.
3. LF Christian Yelich, MIL: Yelich separated himself from the rest of his National League contemporaries with a red-hot September, all but guaranteeing him the NL MVP. He led the senior circuit in fWAR (7.6) and wRC+ (166).
4. DH J.D. Martinez, BOS: With a slash line of .330/.402/.629, Martinez is the perfect designated hitter and a worthy heir to David Ortiz.
5. 3B Jose Ramirez, CLE: Man, it was really hard to choose between Ramirez and Alex Bregman, but Ramirez gets the nod for superior defense and baserunning. He and Betts were the only 30-30 guys in baseball this season. Bregman will have to come Off the Bench (see what I did there?).
6. 1B Paul Goldschmidt, ARI: First base production was way down all around the league, but three first basemen stand out above the rest: Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, and Matt Carpenter. By any definition of WAR, they match up evenly. You can’t go wrong with either of the three, but we’ll use Goldschmidt, who was a better overall hitter by wRC+.
   

   Player	bWAR	fWAR	WARP
   Goldschmidt	5.4	5.1	5.9
   Freeman	6.1	5.2	5.9
   Carpenter	4.9	5.0	5.8

7. SS Francisco Lindor, CLE: Lindor and Manny Machado were easily the two best hitting shortstops. Lindor and Andrelton Simmons are easily the two best defensive shortstops. Given these two truths, it’s a pretty easy call.
8. C J.T. Realmuto, MIA: How weird is it that a Marlin is on this starting lineup? It really doesn’t make sense that they haven’t traded him yet.
9. 2B Javier Baez, CHC: Baez hit ten more home runs than any other second baseman while playing excellent defense at three infield positions.

Bench

• 3B Alex Bregman, HOU: Bregman’s 7.6 fWAR was tied for the fourth best in baseball by a position player. The third best was Jose Ramirez’ 8.1, so Bregman is relegated to the bench.
• OF Lorenzo Cain, MIL: Cain’s 20 DRS makes him the second best defensive outfielder in baseball, and his 124 wRC+ is the second-best mark of his career.
• C Yasmani Grandal, LAD: Baseball Prospectus’ proprietary defensive statistic is fielding runs above average (FRAA), and it incorporates pitch framing for catchers. DRS and UZR do not, so FRAA is really important for measuring backstops. Grandal’s 17.7 FRAA was second in the league behind only Jeff Mathis.
• SS/3B Manny Machado, LAD: Machado played 162 games and slashed .297/.367/.538. He just turned 26 and he’s an upcoming free agent. GMs should trip over each other to dump truckloads of money in his lap.
• IF/OF Ben Zobrist, CHC: By WARP, the two best second basemen in MLB are both Cubs. Of course, calling Zobrist a second baseman is an oversimplification. As usual, he lined up at several different positions, while hitting .305/.378/.440.

Rotation

1. RHP Jacob deGrom, NYM: GTFO with pitcher wins. By any measure other than run support, deGrom was the best pitcher in baseball…
2. RHP Max Scherzer, WAS: …However, Scherzer did have a typically awesome Scherzer season. 300 strikeouts is an impressive feat.
3. RHP Justin Verlander, HOU: Sorry Blake Snell, but Verlander deserves the AL Cy Young. Snell led the league in ERA and wins, which don’t mean a whole lot. Verlander was better by FIP, DRA, strikeout rate, walk rate, and innings pitched. Snell will probably win the award, but the advanced metrics give the edge to Verlander.
4. LHP Chris Sale, BOS: If not for injuries that limited him to 158 innings, Sale would’ve won the AL Cy Young by a mile. He posted a 1.98 FIP and 38.4 percent strikeout rate, both of which would’ve led the league if he had enough innings to qualify.
5. RHP Gerrit Cole, HOU: The final spot in the rotation goes to Cole over Snell, Corey Kluber, and Aaron Nola. Cole threw more innings and struck out a lot more batters than Snell, and posted a better DRA than Kluber and Nola.

Bullpen

• RHP Dellin Betances, NYY: From May 29 to September 22, Betances struck out at least one batter in 44 consecutive appearances.
• RHP Edwin Diaz, SEA: Diaz struck out 124 of the 280 batters he faced and allowed only 64 baserunners. He also led the league with 57 saves, if that floats your boat.
• LHP Josh Hader, MIL: Hader posted 143 strikeouts while facing 304 batters. That’s 19 more strikeouts than any other reliever. No reliever in history struck out more batters while throwing fewer than 90 innings.
• RHP Ryan Pressly, HOU: Pressly was a good-not-great reliever for the Twins, but after his July 27 trade to the Astros, he was the best relief pitcher in baseball. With Houston, he faced 84 batters, allowing just 11 hits, three walks, and a hit by pitch while striking out 32.
• RHP Blake Treinen, OAK: Sometimes, the conventional and advanced stats don’t agree with each other. In Treinen’s case, his 0.78 ERA is backed up by a 1.82 FIP. His 3.6 fWAR led all MLB relievers.
• RHP Kirby Yates, SDP: Just as it doesn’t make sense for a Marlin to be on this team, it’s also confounding that Yates wasn’t traded by the Padres. His 2.50 FIP and 2.14 DRA prove he belongs.

-Daniel R. Epstein