Seattle Mariners Get Justus Sheffield, New York Yankees Get James Paxton: Rapid Reaction
Going into this winter for the New York Yankees, a couple things were crystal clear. First, the Yankees needed starting pitching- the inconsistent Luis Severino, inconsistent Masahiro Tanaka, and aging and inconsistent CC Sabathia weren’t going to cut it alone, especially with the likely impending departure of the inconsistent Sonny Gray and free agency of JA Happy.
Second, the list of players the Yankees could trade away in a big impact deal is small but well-defined: Clint Frazier, a potential impact outfielder who has yet to really get his chance, Justus Sheffield, the top pitching prospect in the organization (who came to the Yankees with Frazier from Cleveland in the Andrew Miller trade a couple of years ago), and maybe, at least on talk radio, Miguel Andujar, the runner up for Rookie of the Year last season.
Monday night, Yankees GM Brian Cashman made his choice, sending Sheffield, Dom Thompson-Williams, and Erik Swanson to the Seattle Mariners for All Star caliber left handed starter James Paxton.
Paxton is an instant upgrade over whatever the Yankees were going to do with that spot in their rotation. He’s a high-strikeout, low walk innings eater with sub-3 ERA potential and, crucially, he’s arbitration eligible for two more seasons before becoming a free agent after the 2020 season, so he’s relatively inexpensive. That cost effectiveness leaves the Yankees with the financial flexibility to make another big splash, be it former Arizona Diamondbacks starter Patrick Corbin, the best free agent pitcher available, or current Arizona Diamondbacks starter Zack Greinke, whom the team is reportedly shopping.
For Seattle, things make sense too. Sheffield has the potential to be the next James Paxton and, given the 2021 target year for contention that the Mariners are telling other teams they have, looks to be a great fit. Ideally, at that point Sheffield will be a 3 year veteran and established big league starter.
Of course, giving up your top pitching prospect on the cusp of his rookie season is a tough thing to do, but there’s enough uncertainty involved with Sheffield that this wasn’t an entirely unpredictable trade by the Yankees. Sheffield has had some control problems and he doesn’t throw hard enough to make up for missing spots. There’s a very real chance he’s not able to realize his incredible potential as a top flight starter and ends up as a middling mid-rotation guy or worse. That’s the risk with unproven young players.
On the other hand, if Sheffield really is the next James Paxton, the Yankees could be kicking themselves in 3 or 4 years.
However, in a division loaded with the defending champion Red Sox and the 90 win Rays and in a league where 100 wins made them just the third best team, the Yankees rotation wasn’t going to cut it. Now, it looks a lot better and will improve even more if Corbin, Greinke, Dallas Keuchel, or another quality arm joins the roster, or even if Happ comes back.
-Max Frankel
