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The Cardinals’ Backup Catcher Situation is… Not Ideal

Cardinals fans don’t really want to talk about a future without Yadier Molina behind the plate.  However, given the backstop’s age and the way the Cardinals have historically utilized him, it is time to mentally prepare for the eventuality sooner than later.  With less than a month until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, the Cardinals are without a backup catcher on the 40-man roster.  Their top catching prospect, Carson Kelly, was shipped off to Arizona in the Goldschmidt deal and the next prospect in line, Andrew Knizner, is pegged to start at the Triple-A level.  The club signed Francisco Pena to a minor league contract and is the most likely candidate to be the backup by opening day.  This leaves too much pressure on Yadi to stay healthy.  Removing the names from the equation highlights the bleak non-Yadi alternatives :  a sub-par veteran who has not seen meaningful innings, accelerating the promotion of a young prospect who may not be ready for the MLB or go out into a soft free agent catcher market.  It would be wise to go out and get a quality backup now to share more of the innings and help maintain Yadi’s longevity. 

MLB organizations are placing more and more value in quality defensive catchers; The majority of the teams in the AL and NL Divisional Series had not only one but two defensive-oriented catchers on their roster. With information gathered from Baseball-Reference and Baseball Prospectus, the chart below includes each playoff team’s catchers that participated in at least 40 games at the position, along with games played and average innings per game caught. In addition, it reflects how many runs they added through their defense (FRAA_ADJ):

ALDS Teams Games @ C AVG Inn/ G FRAA_ADJ
Yankees (9.7 Team FRAA_ADJ)      
Gary Sanchez 76 8.59 -0.09
Austin Romine 76 8.04 6.3
Red Sox (22.0 Team FRAA_ADJ)      
Sandy Leon 87 7.88 12.1
Christian Vazquez 75 8.05 9.0
Astros (11.1 Team FRAA_ADJ)      
Max Stassi 83 7.07 14.0
Brian McCann 62 7.85 -4.5
Martin Maldonado 40 7.36 *6.5
Indians (21.2 Team FRAA_ADJ)      
Yan Gomes 111 8.54 9.6
Roberto Perez 58 8.21 12.1
NLDS Teams Games @ C AVG Inn/ G FRAA_ADJ
Dodgers (27.2 Team FRAA_ADJ)      
Yasmani Grandal 135 7.68 16.3
Austin Barnes 61 7.12 9.2
Braves (6.5 Team FRAA_ADJ)      
Kurt Suzuki 93 8.05 -6.6
Tyler Flowers 76 8.12 13.0
Brewers (15.7 Team FRAA_ADJ)      
Manny Pina 92 8.08 6.3
Erik Kratz 61 8.05 11.1
Rockies (9.6 Team FRAA_ADJ)      
Chris Iannetta 99 7.61 1.2
Tony Wolters 64 7.64 9.6

According to Baseball Prospectus’ team catching statistics, seven out of the eight teams listed were in the top ten in team FRAA_Adj. This metric accounts for framing, blocking and throwing runs added or lost for the team. The only team left out of the top ten was Atlanta who ranked eleventh in 2018, due mostly to Kurt Suzuki’s below average defense dragging them down.

The Cardinals in comparison are lagging:

Cardinals (-2.9 Team FRAA_ADJ) Games @ C AVG Inn/ G FRAA_ADJ
Yadier Molina 121 8.41 3.5
Francsico Pena 56 5.84 -5.2
Carson Kelly 16 6.25 -1.1

It is clear that the Cardinals rely heavily on Molina to be in the game. Comparing the playoff teams with the Cardinals backstops, Yadi caught in the second-most games and is third in average innings per game, even while being injured for 26 contests in the middle of the season. In the past five-seasons he averaged 128.2 games at catcher, topping out at 146 during the 2016 season. He also ranked second in framing chances in 2018 amongst all active MLB catchers, per Baseball Prospectus, despite missing those 26 games. This is not sustainable for a soon to be 37-year-old in such a physically demanding position. As a result, a decline is starting to unfold in categories he normally excels. Yadier’s caught stealing percentage the last 5 seasons has declined from 48% in 2014 to just above league average at 31% in 2018. Still good statistics, but not legendary figures that Cardinals fans are accustomed.

Given the historical overuse, the Cardinals need to have a succession plan. Pena is a far inferior catcher and is no threat at the plate. It would be a tremendous asset in the long-run to give Knizner at least one more year to develop defensively and offensively in Triple-A. The Dodgers had similar cards dealt and acted by paying the rest of Russell Martin’s contract with Toronto for $3.6 million in a one-year deal. LA has two catching prospects (Keibert Ruiz and Will Smith) in the farm system that are not quite Big-League ready, so Martin can bridge that time. In addition, with Grandal going to the Brewers and Barnes already a proven defensive catcher, the Dodgers got a starter that can replace Grandal’s defensive ability within the tandem. The Cardinals need to be proactive and find another reliable catcher.

The best option now is to sign free agent Martin Maldonado for a one-year deal. Maldonado played most of his career for the Angels and was traded last year to Houston to split time with Max Stassi, while Brian McCann was sidelined from right knee surgery. He is a terrific receiver, averaging 11.8 framing runs over the past three seasons, and consistently throws out base runners at an above average clip (49% in 2018). Additionally, Maldonado has experience working with a younger, inexperienced staff, earning a gold glove in the 2017 season. His market value is similar to Martin’s at $3,954,853, per spotrac.com. Maldonado would be an excellent supplement to Yadier Molina and allow the Cardinals to give their star more time to rest, without sacrificing quality for the pitching staff.

The Cardinals organization and fans need to get past the notion that Yadier Molina is the only option behind the plate. Teams are adding multiple, above-average defensive catchers to their roster to share the monumental task of catching 162 games. The Cardinals need to follow the trend and pay a quality catcher to share the load.

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