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Meet Danny Duffy 3.0, Now with Less Velocity

By Sean Morash

Posted on February 5, 2019

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Danny Duffy, the 30 year old from California with the fun name and the even better left arm, has a history of reinventing himself. Back in 2016, I made the case that the former first-round pick was finally becoming the pitcher that many hoped he would be.

Foiled in 2012 by a UCL that had had enough, it took Duffy about 3 years to find his velocity again. In that search for velocity, he managed to find command of his pitches, lowering his walk rate, and the Royals rewarded him with a 5 year, $65M deal to stick around the rotation for a while. It was a deal that I dubbed decidedly team-friendly.

Well, he’s regressed and the “team-friendly” deal is now another in the Royals’ long list of worrisome developments.

There are a few worrisome points about Danny Duffy’s 2019 outlook. He’s been walking more people, and he’s coming off a season in which he battled shoulder soreness for pretty much the entire year.

Duffy is no stranger to arm troubles. He missed the one season with Tommy John, then in August 26, 2017, he was placed on the 10-day disabled list for left elbow impingement. Last year, he left a spring training game with shoulder soreness and then missed 10 days in August for the same ailment. He made a few starts before the soreness was too unbearable, and he was shut down for the season with a month left to play.

Those few starts help to explain why Duffy was The Biggest Loser of fastball velocity last year. He lost nearly 3 ticks off his fastball from his high in July.

There’s not a whole lot to like about losing velocity for any pitcher. For Duffy, it’s particularly troublesome. Since he regained his foothold in the Major Leagues after Tommy John surgery, Duffy has succeeded when he throws his hardest:

• When he throws his fastball 94+: .268 xwOBA
• When he throws his fastball 93: .307 xwOBA
• When he throws his fastball less than 93: .321 xwOBA

Duffy basically alternates between 2018 Gerrit Cole, Jon Gant, and Julio Teheran depending on his velocity.

It seems that Duffy is at a bit of a crossroads then. Throwing slow has not historically been a good idea. Neither is missing games and spending weeks in the trainer’s office. He can either continue down the path of hard-throwing, oft-injured pitcher (the Danny Duffy 2.0 model), or reinvent himself with a de-emphasis on velocity.

There is precedent for this. Two Bronx Bombers have done it with success in Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia. Each found themselves with a need to get by on less gas, but for different reasons. Each is still a very useful major leaguer.

Duffy spent the offseason in Santa Barbara going to physical therapy and he just spoke with reporters last week, saying: “I feel pretty good, I feel like… I don’t have pain, which is huge. I… I had pain for the last few years.” That’s an inspiring quote for fans, but the nature of the interview in full is still of a pitcher looking for answers, more cautious than optimistic.

A de-emphasis on fastball velocity may help his psyche, but it could also help him to embrace a new approach to right-handed hitters.

Over the past five seasons, left-handed-hitters have slashed.201/.250/.262, with just five homers in more than 600 plate appearances against Duffy. No starter in baseball has surrendered a lower OPS to lefties during that time- Chris Sale ranking right behind him. That’s even with the sub-optimal 2018 mixed in.

Duffy just needs to find a few answers to right-handed hitters. Might a slightly slower fastball help him to locate better against these foes? It might. There’s only one way to know really. Try it out in Spring Training!

Luckily, Duffy will soon know how his arm feels throwing from a mound, what adjustments will need to be made, and with the struggles of recent years weighing on him, I imagine Duffy could look for new solutions.