Miami Marlins

Just How Bad Are the Miami Marlins?

baseball blog

It’s no big news that the Miami Marlins aren’t very good. Cellar dwellers in 2018, the 63 – 98 Marlins bested only the Baltimore Orioles in terms of win-loss record.

With the trade of J.T. Realmuto to the Philadelphia Phillies last week, the team got appreciably worse. Looking at the team’s payroll, there is little to inspire confidence. Their highest-paid player in terms of 2019 salary is Wei-Yin Chen, who will earn $20 million this season. Chen posted a subpar 4.79 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 2018 while going 6 – 12 in 26 starts. Next is Martin Prado, making $15 million this year. Both players are in their 30s.

Heading into this season, the Marlins are once again projected to finish dead last in the NL East. They will be lucky to win 70 or more games. They also are projected to score the fewest runs per game by a wide margin. In other words, San Francisco and San Diego, you should be safe.

The Miami Marlins simply don’t have a strength heading into 2019. What’s worse, this is not an aberration for the organization. Sam Miller, writing for ESPN, detailed at length how “the Fish” trade their players as a matter of tradition. One stat is staggering: of the 25 all-time franchise leaders in WAR, 23 have now been traded. A.J. Burnett left via free agency and Jose Fernandez died tragically, but all others have been dealt by the club.

As abnormal as this is throughout the league, it’s very normal for the Marlins. Even when circumstances surrounding the team have changed, the result has been the same. As Miller also underscores, even with changes in executives, ownership, and a new stadium, All-Star players have been sent packing. Sure, the rationale has changed—messaging from team brass has shifted from a discussion of economics to the quality of the talent on the field—but it’s the same story year after year. If repeatedly tearing down the roster is the answer, one can’t fault the observer for agreeing that franchise leadership suffers from an “astounding lack of imagination.”

That’s what makes the Miami Marlins’ latest pleas for fans to give the team a chance so hard to bear and even harder to believe. They seem insincere. Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill points to all the talent the team has acquired in the last year-and-a-half. A lot of it has been in the form of prospects, but fans of the Marlins don’t get to enjoy organizational farm system strength in the same way that Yankees fans get to enjoy home runs and Red Sox fans get to enjoy World Series titles.

Still, when players are routinely given just a few years to develop before being leveraged for new talent, what faith should Miami fans have that anything different will transpire this time?

This may remind you of the contentious dialog Derek Jeter and Bryant Gumbel had last year about the Marlins’ on-field product. Jeter said he expects his team to compete and contend. Gumbel said he understands that the players might compete hard, but given the perceived dearth of talent, there’s no reasonable expectation they should contend. Jeter called Gumbel “mentally weak” for his assertion. Gumbel opined it looks like Jeter is “delusional” for believing the Marlins can contend. At least there was equal opportunity criticism to be had.

Perhaps both parties in the interview are right in a way. Maybe Jeter is correct that the Miami Marlins are better than most casual observers know. After all, as a former player, he is closer to the game than the average baseball fan could ever hope to be. They also managed to win 63 MAJOR LEAGUE games last year. “Misfit” teams also have the power to surprise and thrive. Hockey’s Vegas Golden Knights made it to the Stanley Cup Finals in their inaugural season with a collection of discarded players. It’s not unthinkable that the Marlins could exceed their 65-win projection.

However, in the vein of perception is reality, maybe Gumbel is right as well. How does one preach patience for a team that, despite winning two World Series Championships since its inception in 1993, hasn’t made the playoffs since winning it all in 2003? The Marlins haven’t finished with a winning record since 2009 and haven’t won 80 or more games since 2010. Read that again. They rank in the bottom-five in Major League Baseball in team payroll. Plus, there’s the matter of the stadium’s funding, which will cost the city of Miami and Miami-Dade County over $2.5 billion before it’s paid in full and which prompted an SEC investigation. If the club wants to improve on its league-worst attendance from last season, maybe the best course of action is to refrain from asking for “a chance” and instead invest in the team’s top players for more than three or four years.

Not all teams need a bona fide star to win. Nevertheless, in the absence of a credible face of the franchise, how do you sell the public on the Miami Marlins? Maybe, like the Houston Astros have done in recent seasons, the Marlins are a team on the rise that need a few years to blossom. Then again, for Miami, there’s nowhere to go but up, and to find success, they’ll have to do so against J.T. Realmuto rather than with him.

Could the 2019 Miami Marlins be better than they look? Of course. But, owing to the team’s struggles on and off the field, is it more likely that they’ll be as bad as we think they’ll be? Absolutely.

-Joe Mangano

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