2019 NFL Mock Draft (7 rounds!)
As the saying goes, “hitting a baseball is the hardest thing to do in sports.” However, even the worst hitters are usually successful 20% of the time. In this seven-round NFL mock draft, probably fewer than five out of 254 picks will be correct. Even a 2% success rate would be commendable.
Of course, hitting requires athletic skill, whereas a mock draft is dumb luck, but whatever. Read it anyway, then make fun of me for being horrifically wrong. What follows is a brief commentary on each of the first round picks, as well as a link to view the entire seven-round spreadsheet.
View the entire seven-round mock draft here!
1. Arizona Cardinals: QB Kyler Murray, Oklahoma
Good for the Cardinals for moving on from Josh Rosen a year after selecting him in the first round. He may yet develop into a decent quarterback, but if Kyler Murray is clearly better, he’s the right decision. Good for the NFL for destigmatizing short quarterbacks. Murray is probably taller than Russell Wilson anyway. Good for Murray for spurning MLB and the Oakland A’s. He’s making the right decision. He’s not the best overall player in the draft, but this is just good all around.
2. San Francisco 49ers: DE Nick Bosa, Ohio State
Who’s the number one overall player in the draft: Nick Bosa or Quinnen Williams? It’s a toss-up. Bosa is an outside edge rusher, while Williams plays inside. Both are stellar defensive linemen who stand atop a loaded draft class at their positions. The 49ers could go either way, but they have more of a need at defensive end. They can’t go wrong with either player.
3. New York Jets: DT Quinnen Williams, Alabama
This pick is unlikely to happen. The Jets have made no secret of their desire to trade down. It’s very possible they entice someone to move up to this spot for Quinnen Williams, Nick Bosa, or quarterback Dwayne Haskins. It’s a fool’s errand to predict trades in a seven-round mock draft, so assuming the Jets stand pat, Williams is the best player available.
4. Oakland Raiders: OLB Josh Allen, Kentucky
The Raiders missed Khalil Mack desperately last season. The team compiled only 13 sacks, whereas no other team had less than 30. (Mack had 12.5 all by himself!) Josh Allen is a similar type of player- a pass rushing outside linebacker. He’s a fantastic talent, not far off from the Nick Bosa/Quinnen Williams level. Of course, maybe they should have just kept Mack to begin with…
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: ILB Devin White, Louisiana State
The Buccaneers were 31st in the league in points allowed last season. They need a difference maker on the defensive side of the ball. Devin White is a sideline-to-sideline linebacker who can impact the running and passing game.
6. New York Giants: DT Ed Oliver, Houston
The Giants might be in a difficult situation with the sixth pick. Ed Oliver, a penetrating interior lineman, is the best player available, but he might need be a great scheme fit for their 3-4 defense. Rashan Gary is a cleaner fit, but was less productive in college and has a shoulder problem. An outside rusher like Montez Sweat is possible, as is offensive lineman Jawan Taylor or even a passer like Dwayne Haskins. Ultimately, the best player should be the pick, and that’s Oliver.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: TE T.J. Hockenson, Iowa
Quarterback and offensive line are options for the Jaguars with the seventh pick, but T.J. Hockenson is a complete player at the tight end position. He will improve their run blocking and be a reliable target for Nick Foles. If they don’t select a tight end with this pick, they’ll need to address the position in the middle rounds because the cupboard is bare.
8. Detroit Lions: DE Montez Sweat, Mississippi State
The Lions’ defense is predicated on a stout line, but they need another edge rusher opposite Trey Flowers. Montez Sweat is undoubtedly a top ten talent, but an enlarged heart could send him falling through the draft. It’s one of those medical conditions that is very difficult to predict how it will impact his career. The team could also be tempted by T.J. Hockenson if the Jaguars don’t grab him first, or perhaps go for one of the offensive linemen.
9. Buffalo Bills: DE Rashan Gary, Michigan
The Bills seem very likely to select a defensive lineman, given the depth and talent of the class and the team’s need. Rashan Gary is a phenomenal athlete who can play various positions on the defensive line.
10. Denver Broncos: OL Jonah Williams, Alabama
Jonah Williams, Jawan Taylor, and Andre Dillard are all rated similarly at the top of the offensive line group. Williams is a technician who might fit best at guard, which is where the Broncos would need to use him. Don’t be surprised if they go for a quarterback in this spot, whether it’s Dwayne Haskins or Drew Lock.
11. Cincinnati Bengals: QB Drew Lock, Missouri
The Bengals have gone about as far as they can go with Andy Dalton under center. Drew Lock is a big, athletic signal caller with all the physical skills required for the position. He needs some more coaching and will benefit from a year sitting on the bench, learning the NFL game. Offensive line and linebacker are other priorities should they decide against picking a quarterback.
12. Green Bay Packers: OT Jawan Taylor, Florida
Jawan Taylor is a big right tackle who has the athleticism to play guard or potentially left tackle. Many consider him the best offensive lineman in the draft, and it’s unlikely he falls any lower than the 12th pick. The Packers would almost be forced to pick him should he get this far.
13. Miami Dolphins: D.K. Metcalf, Mississippi
D.K. Metcalf was probably the number one receiver in the class before blowing up The Combine, where he ran a 4.33 forty yard dash at 6’3, 228 lb. The Dolphins need to add playmakers on both sides of the ball, and Metcalf fits the bill.
14. Atlanta Falcons: DT Christian Wilkins, Clemson
The Falcons need to improve both the offensive and defensive lines, and will likely select a big body with this pick. Christian Wilkins definitely qualifies as an athletic interior defensive lineman.
15. Washington: QB Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State
I don’t actually think Washington will draft Dwayne Haskins with the 15th pick. If they want him, they’ll trade up into the top ten to get him. With Alex Smith’s injury uncertainty, they are highly likely to address the quarterback position.
16. Carolina Panthers: OT Andre Dillard, Washington State
This one is pretty simple. The Panthers have a glaring need at left tackle. Andre Dillard is the best pure pass-protection left tackle in the draft. It’s a natural fit.
17. New York Giants: QB Daniel Jones, Duke
Obviously, Eli Manning has declined and won’t be around much longer. The Giants probably see the front seven as a too much of a value/priority match with the sixth overall pick, and Daniel Jones seems like their flavor of quarterback. He’s a tall, pocket passer with experience in a pro-style offense.
18. Minnesota Vikings: OL Cody Ford, Oklahoma
The Vikings need a major talent infusion at several spots on the offensive line, so they can just go “best offensive lineman available.” That’s Cody Ford in this scenario, who profiles best as a mauling guard.
19. Tennessee Titans: OLB Brian Burns, Florida State
Brian Burns is just the type of athletic, edge-rushing outside linebacker the Titans are looking for. They need to replace the production of Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: LB Devin Bush, Michigan
It just feels right to mock linebackers to the Steelers. Their defense hasn’t been the same since Ryan Shazier’s devastating injury. Devin Bush has the speed and athleticism to take his place in the interior of the defense.
21. Seattle Seahawks: DE Clelin Ferrell, Clemson
After trading Frank Clark to Kansas City, the Seahawks need to rebuild their pass rush. Clelin Ferrell may be the last of the top tier of edge defenders in this draft class, and he may not last until they pick again at number 28.
22. Baltimore Ravens: WR Marquise Brown, Oklahoma
To succeed in the NFL at 5’9, 166 lb., you need to be REALLY fast. Marquise Brown has that elite speed and quickness, making him a Tyreek Hill type of threat with the football. The Ravens have no outside weapons at present, and they need to build an offense around Lamar Jackson.
23. Houston Texans: CB Greedy Williams, Louisiana State
The 23rd pick is very late for the first defensive back to be selected, but the position group just can’t match the talent of the defensive linemen. That being said, Greedy Williams has the length and speed to become a very good cover corner.
24. Oakland Raiders: RB Josh Jacobs, Alabama
The running back group is also not highly regarded, and Josh Jacobs is the only first round talent at the position. The Raiders don’t have an unproven running back group currently, and need to draft someone worthy of taking the bulk of the carries.
25. Philadelphia Eagles: DT Dexter Lawrence, Clemson
Dexter Lawrence is one of the hardest players to fit into a mock draft. He’s a huge run-stuffing nose tackle, but didn’t play on passing downs in college. He also tested positive for a banned substance and pulled a quad at The Combine. He could go anywhere from the top ten to the second round. The Eagles have a well-stocked roster, so they can afford to take a chance on him.
26. Indianapolis Colts: DT Jeffrey Simmons, Mississippi State
Jeffery Simmons might be even harder to place than Dexter Lawrence. He looked like a top ten pick after the college season, but tore his ACL in pre-draft workouts. Not every team will spend a first round pick on a player who has to sit out for the coming season, but if he makes a full recovery, he could be a special interior player. Someone in the back of the first round ought to roll the dice, whether that’s the Colts or another team.
27. Oakland Raiders: CB Byron Murphy, Washington
No team allowed more points than the Raiders last season. At least two of their three first round picks should be devoted to defense. Byron Murphy isn’t very big, but he covers well. At this juncture, he’s the best defensive player available.
28. Los Angeles Chargers: Garrett Bradbury, North Carolina State
The Chargers badly need to improve their blocking. Any offensive lineman will do, really. Garrett Bradbury is a skilled technician at center, who could move to guard for the Chargers.
29. Seattle Seahawks: Jonathan Abram, Mississippi State
The Seahawks are always inclined to trade down, and could move back into the second round to grab a safety. There are several safeties ranked similarly in this class, but Jonathan Abram ought to be one of the first ones off the board.
30. Green Bay Packers: TE Noah Fant, Iowa
While his college teammate T.J. Hockenson is the more well-rounded player, Noah Fant is the better receiving threat. It’s unlikely Fant falls out of the first round, and this pick is probably his floor (assuming the Packers don’t snag Hockenson earlier in the round).
31. Los Angeles Rams: C Erik McCoy, Texas A&M
Erik McCoy is an excellent athlete, running a 4.89 forty at 6’4, 303 lb. He’s versatile enough to play several positions on the offensive line. The Rams would be glad to have him replace John Sullivan.
32. New England Patriots: DT Jerry Tillery, Notre Dame
The Patriots’ defensive identity is based on a strong line. As the Super Bowl champions (again), they don’t have a lot of needs, but they can always use more big bodies up front. Jerry Tillery fits well in their defensive system.
