Is Yasiel Puig Bad Now?
Yasiel Puig’s career as a Cincinnati Red has gotten off to a slow start, to put it lightly. Puig is hitting just .206 with an OBP of .253 and a measly slugging percentage of .358.
The right fielder’s career in LA was filled with intense hot and cold streaks, usually these streaks have been chalked up to Puig’s mental state, even culminating in a brief demotion to AAA to help the star regain focus. It was hoped that moving to a smaller market in Cincinnati would help Puig stay focused on baseball, and less on the lifestyle he so clearly enjoyed in Los Angeles. We also thought that the move to Cincy helped make the Reds one of the most watchable teams in baseball.
So with that in mind it’s worth asking, is this a classic Puig mental slump, or is this a case of a good player just down on his baseball luck?
A quick look at the surface level stats would suggest that Puig is not as focused at the plate as one would hope.
He’s swinging at anything even remotely close to the zone, as shown by his 56% swing rate, way up from his rate of about 46% the previous two years. As a result, his walk rate is a pitiful 5%, way down from his career level of 9%. While it’s still pretty early in the season, it seems like Puig, always a free swinger, is swinging at even more pitches, no doubt hoping to capitalize on the hitter friendly Great American Ballpark.
Unfortunately for Puig, more swings does not equate to more hits, as shown by his 25% strikeout rate this season. Puig will no doubt have to bring his strikeout rate closer to his career level of 20% if he hopes to bounce back out of this slump in the near future.
But it’s not all bad news for the beleaguered Right Fielder.
Looking at his batted ball profile suggests that, not only is Puig due for a resurgence, he may be due for an exceptionally good season. According to Statcast, Puig has a career high Barrel percentage, a barrel is defined by statcast as “batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.” Basically a barrel is a really good hit. Puig’s barrel percentage of 11.5% is above his career average of 9.3% and way better than the league average 6.2%. All that to say, when Puig is making contact, he is more likely to make really good contact than at any other point in his career.
Puig’s high barrel rate this season is likely due to his high exit velocity and launch angle. When Puig makes contact, he’s hitting the ball an average of 89.3 MPH, almost exactly his career average of 89.2 MPH and noticeably higher than the league average of 87.4 MPH. Puig’s launch angle this season has been a career high 15.6 degrees, meaning he’s hitting the ball in the air a lot. Hitting the ball harder than most people in the league, and in the air would seem to be a recipe for future success.
There’s no denying that Puig’s performance in Cincinnati has been, in a word, terrible. A .206 batting average is a .206 batting average- no way to put a spin on that. However, when looking towards the future there is plenty of reason to be optimistic that Puig can turn the ship around. Puig is making quality contact when he is hitting the ball, if he just manages to make contact more often and bring down that sky high strikeout rate he could have a really great season. Puig is one of the most fun players in baseball when he is on, ending his cold streak would go a long way to consoling some disappointed Reds fans.
-Isaac Gamboa
