An Ode to Cody Bellinger: The NL MVP
With the quest for a World Series title continuing to dominate the narrative surrounding the Dodgers, the sublime and otherworldly 2019 season composed by Cody Bellinger deserves to be recognized and appreciated.
In my mind, the frontrunner for the National League Most Valuable Player Award has quite literally done it all for the Dodgers this season.
Bellinger started off the year going scorched earth on the competition, hitting .416 in the month of April with 10 HR’s, 6 2B’s, 29 RBI and an OPS of 1.1347. In the entire month of April (and 3 games in March), he reached base in every single game, and only failed to get a hit twice during that period.
His success carried over into May, hitting .319 for the month with 6 HR, 15 RBI, and an OPS of .998, but more importantly, only failed to reach base (in games he started) in one game for the month.
So over the first two months of the season, Bellinger failed to at least reach base in only ONE game — expand that another month and he only failed to reach base in games he started a meager three times from March through June, and over the course of the season, he’s failed to reach base in only 14 games.
Even though some may consider Bellinger to be “struggling” at the plate as of late due in part to the expectations his godly start created, his overall body of work in all facets of the game deem him unequivocally worthy of this year’s MVP Award.
Bellinger’s main competition for the award is the reigning MVP Christian Yelich.
The Brewers outfielder was putting on a remarkable season before going down with an injury on September 10th.
It’s only fair to compare their seasons, even though the decision is somewhat clear to me.
Bellinger’s wRC of 137 is 2nd best in the MLB trailing only Alex Bregman, and while Yelich has the advantage in wRC+ with 174 compared to Bellinger’s 162, Bellinger has a 16.6% K% compared to Yelich’s 20.3%.
According to Baseball Reference, Bellinger leads all of baseball with his 8.9 WAR (using Fangraphs WAR measure it’s Bellinger 7.6 / Yelich 7.8), and while Yelich has an edge on Bellinger strictly looking at some of these numbers, it is very important to remember that there is no clear-cut definition of what the MVP Award directly translates to. The guidelines and criteria given to MVP voters remain the same as they have been since the MVP Award was created in 1931:
“1) actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense; (2) number of games played; (3) general character, disposition, loyalty and effort; (4) former winners are eligible; and (5) members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.”
First off, one keyword in those guidelines and what ultimately puts Bellinger ahead of Yelich when engaging in this debate is…
Defense.
The offensive performances of both candidates are very similar, one doesn’t blow the other out of the water by any measure. However, when looking at the numbers in the table above, the one glaring difference is a defensive metric, DRS to be specific, or Defensive Runs Saved — Bellinger is 5th in all of baseball with 19 DRS, while Yelich has 1 on the entire season.
Bellinger leads all of baseball with an 8.9 WAR (per Baseball Reference), in large part due to his stellar defense. His defensive WAR sits at 1.9 (3.2 in Fangraphs), which is good for 10th in the MLB, and is a tribute to his stellar play in both the outfield and at first base.
Yelich on the other hand has a 7.2 WAR, but a -0.6 defensive WAR (-3.7 in Fangraphs).
Bellinger’s overall impact on defense is visible to anyone who’s watched the Dodgers play this season and despite playing in 34 games at first base, Bellinger still sits in 4th place in the NL with 10 outfield assists, three ahead of Yelich.
Bellinger also has 93 OOZ (out of zone plays made) compared to Yelich’s 60, despite playing significantly fewer innings in the outfield, where it is much easier to complete one of these plays than it is at first base.
He has shown his defensive success and versatility by splitting games in RF, CF, and 1st base, and almost certainly will take home a gold glove this season for his play in the outfield. His outstanding defense may be the factor that puts him over the top in this race.
Secondly, since it is a criteria in the aforementioned excerpt, Bellinger will finish the season with 26 more games played than Yelich, which brings me to my next point:
Now I am certainly not arguing that Christian Yelich is not of value to the Brewers, because they are on all accounts a better team when he suits up, but it is worth noting that since his injury on September 10th, the Brewers have gone 13-5 and clinched a berth in the NL Wild Card Game as a result of this impressive stretch. (They did go 7-2 in September prior to Yelich’s injury as well).
Again, In no regard am I saying the Brewers are better without Yelich, because they most certainly are not, I’m strictly pointing out a possible angle that could be used by voters.
Yelich is no doubt a worthy candidate for the award, and I wouldn’t scoff at any writer who does vote for him. In almost any other year, he’d have my vote, but Bellinger’s collective season, factoring in all the criteria and his overall resume, make him my choice.
Bottom Line
The bottomline is this, Cody Bellinger does it all. He’s the best player on the best team in the league. He hits for power, he gets on base, he plays excellent defense, he throws runners out, he has game-changing speed, and he’s been durable the entire season.
I can’t think of one bad thing to say about Bellinger. He plays professionally and with joy, hustles out of the batters box and in the field, never complains about all the defensive changes the Dodgers engage in, he’s loved by his teammates, and he makes even casual baseball fans stop what they’re doing to watch him play. The 24-year old is truly a special talent in every regard.
Cody Bellinger doesn’t deserve the MVP Award, the MVP Award deserves Cody Bellinger.
-David Rosenthal (@_therealdrose)
