The King and The Doc
In an otherwise dreadful season, one thing the Seattle Mariners organization did well this year was celebrate much-beloved players from the past and the present. They began the year with Ichiro Suzuki on the active roster for a two-game series in Japan, allowing Japanese fans to see the legend play baseball in person one last time. In August, the Mariners celebrated Edgar Martinez with a weekend of special events to honor his recent induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Finally, in late September, the team held one final King’s Court game so fans could say goodbye to 15-year veteran Felix Hernandez.
The send-off for King Félix was emotional for everyone involved, from the fans in the stands to the players in the dugout to Félix himself. He gutted through 5 1/3 innings while allowing three runs to the Oakland A’s.
He rewarded the King’s Court chants of “K! K! K! K! K!” by striking out three hitters and pointing to the stands each time. When he was removed from the game in the top of the sixth, tears flowed down his cheeks.
After the game, he emerged from the dugout and strolled down the third base line shaking hands, sharing fist bumps and high fives, and having his picture taken with his fans.
While he likely won’t be back with the Mariners next year, Hernández hopes to continue his baseball career.
It remains to be seen if any MLB teams will be interested in a 34-year-old starting pitcher coming off a season with a 6.40 ERA in 15 starts who also has a 5.42 ERA in 59 starts over the last three seasons, which is the fifth-worst ERA of any pitcher with 300 innings since the start of the 2017 season.
While his future is unknown, Felix Hernandez has a resume similar to another terrific young pitcher from a different generation—Dwight Gooden.
The Doc
It’s not a perfect match, of course. One reason is that Gooden arrived in the big leagues fully-formed- he led the NL in strikeouts as a rookie and was an all-star, the NL Rookie of the Year, and finished second in Cy Young voting, all at the age of 19. (Editor’s Note: wow)
Gooden’s sophomore season was off-the-charts. He led the league in most everything—wins, ERA, innings pitched, complete games, and strikeouts. He was an all-star again and won the NL Cy Young Award, receiving every first-place vote in the process. Gooden’s first two seasons were unlike anything we’d ever seen.
Hernández also came up to the big leagues as a 19-year-old and was also very good, but didn’t throw as many innings as Gooden did when both were rookies.
Hernández struggled in year two, then found his footing in year three. At his peak, he was an all-star six times and finished in the top ten in AL Cy Young voting six times in seven years from 2009 to 2015. He won the AL Cy Young Award in 2010 when he led the league in ERA, games started, and innings pitched.
Innings Eaters
Gooden and Hernández were both impressive in their 20s, and they shared another characteristic—a heavy workload.
Gooden averaged 248 innings per season during his first three seasons, when he was 19-21 years old. He also had a 248-inning season as a 23-year-old and a 232-inning season as a 25-year-old.
For his part, Hernández had four straight seasons with at least 232 innings from age 23 to 26, and a 236-inning season when he was 28.
Looking at all pitchers whose careers fell between 1979 and 2019, Gooden and Hernández are second and third in innings pitched through the age of 28:
2144 IP—Fernando Valenzuela
2128 IP—Dwight Gooden
2060 IP—Félix Hernández
1945 IP—Mike Witt
1911 IP—Greg Maddux
Generally, pitchers who perform at a high level through their peak years can be expected to decline, but the top four pitchers on this list really fell off. These pitchers, through the age of 28:
2144 IP—Fernando Valenzuela (3.19 ERA, 6.9 K/9, 111 ERA+)
2128 IP—Dwight Gooden (3.04 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 118 ERA+)
2060 IP—Felix Hernandez (3.07 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 130 ERA+)
1945 IP—Mike Witt (3.78 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 107 ERA+)
1911 IP—Greg Maddux (3.02 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 130 ERA+)
Hernández just finished his age-33 season. These pitchers, from age 29 to 33:
434 IP—Fernando Valenzuela (4.68 ERA, 4.5 K/9, 87 ERA+)
452 IP—Dwight Gooden (4.74 ERA, 6.3 K/9, 100 ERA+)
669 IP—Felix Hernandez (4.48 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 90 ERA+)
163 IP—Mike Witt (4.52 ERA, 5.7 K/9, 89 ERA+)
1157 IP—Greg Maddux (2.47 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 173 ERA+)
Valenzuela, Gooden, Hernández, and Witt all went from above average pitchers to average or worse. Their ERAs went up and their strikeout rates went down. Greg Maddux was the exception. He was better than ever and went on to a Hall of Fame career.
Back to King Félix and Doc Gooden. After their heavy workloads, both pitchers started to falter at the age of 29. Of course, Gooden had other issues, particularly his drug use that led to multiple rehab stints. He didn’t however, bet on baseball- something you can do. Learn more about betting on MLB baseball here.
Felix Hernandez has no such issues, just plenty of innings.
The Cliff
From 1984 to 1993, ages 19 to 28, Gooden averaged 5.1 WAR per season (per FanGraphs). From 2005 to 2014, ages 19 to 28, Hernández averaged 5.0 WAR per season.
The 1994 season for Dwight Gooden was the beginning of the end. It began with an Opening Day start at Wrigley Field in which he gave up three home runs to the immortal Tuffy Rhodes, a journeyman outfielder who hit 13 home runs in his entire major league career (before becoming a legend in Japan).
During the player’s strike that season, Gooden relapsed, failed another drug test, and was suspended for the entire 1995 season. He came back in 1996 at the age of 31 and had some memorable moments, including a no-hitter against the Mariners, but wasn’t the same pitcher he’d been when he was young. After posting a 3.04 ERA (118 ERA+) through the age of 28, Gooden had a 4.99 ERA (96 ERA+) from age 29 on.
Felix Hernandez hasn’t had the off-field issues that Gooden has, but his performance after the age of 28 has been similarly bad. His ERA has risen every year since 2014, from 2.14 to 3.53 to 3.82 to 4.36 to 5.55 to 6.40. After posting a 3.07 ERA (130 ERA+) through the age of 28, Hernández has a 4.48 ERA (90 ERA+) from age 29 on.
Hernández just completed his age-33 season. Below are his career numbers, along with Gooden’s numbers through his age-33 season and a graph of their cumulative WAR by age (FanGraphs WAR).
Felix Hernandez:
2729.7 IP, 3.42 ERA, 117 ERA+ (17 percent better than average)
54.0—FanGraphs WAR
50.2—Baseball-Reference WAR
52.1—Average of the two
Dwight Gooden, through age 33:
2580.7 IP, 3.33 ERA, 114 ERA+ (14 percent better than average)
56.6—FanGraphs WAR
48.1—Baseball-Reference WAR
52.4—Average of the two
Gooden’s first two seasons were so good that he jumped out to a solid lead over Hernández in fWAR before Hernández closed the gap. They were essentially equal by their early 30s.
We know what Gooden did over the rest of his career. In 1999, at the age of 34, he had a 6.26 ERA and 1.69 WHIP with the Cleveland Indians. In 2000, his final season, he pitched for three teams and had a 4.71 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 105 innings. That was it for Doc.
It remains to be seen what Hernández will do going forward, should he get the opportunity.
