Prospect Watch

Questions About the 42 Minor League Team Cut List (Part Two)

Yesterday, we started looking deeper at some of the big questions surrounding MLB’s proposal to disaffiliate 42 minor league teams. We tackled some of the reasons why they have a minor league team cut list in the first place, and what might happen to those teams getting booted. Now we’re going to continue analyzing the cut list, and see what else we can uncover.

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Where are these teams?

Between the majors and minors, affiliated baseball does a pretty good job covering the United States with respect to the country’s population distribution. Here’s where Americans live grouped by time zone:

Time ZoneUS PopulationMLB Teams
Eastern47.6%14
Central29.1%8
Mountain6.7%2
Pacific16.6%6

MLB teams cover the population almost perfectly. Here they are on a map (with an assist from mapcustomizer.com):

That’s just MLB though, and with only 30 teams it’s impossible to have one within a reasonable drive of everybody. Besides, MLB games are expensive! Not everyone can afford to go to an MLB stadium, which can cost hundreds of dollars for a family of four.

That’s one reason for the necessity of minor league baseball. With so many more teams and affordable pricing, it makes live baseball much more accessible. Here’s a map of every affiliated team in MLB and MiLB. The blue pins are still MLB teams. The green are MiLB franchises. The red ones are the subject of our discussion: the 42 MiLB teams on the cutting board.

The biggest takeaway from the map above is how many red pins dot the Mountain Time Zone. That’s because the Pioneer League, which has eight franchises, is being eliminated in its entirety. This leaves only six affiliated teams remaining in the entire time zone: the Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, Albuquerque Isotopes, Boise Hawks, El Paso Chihuahuas, and Salt Lake Bees.

Sometimes, when looking at maps like this, it’s hard to fathom the vastness of the country. On a proper scale, it would be apparent that several other red pins are also many hours away from the next closest team. The Vermont Lake Monsters are based in Burlington- the largest city in the state. Without them, it’s more than a three-hour drive east or south to find a ballgame.

The Lexington Legends are squarely in the middle of Kentucky. Eastern and Central Kentucky residents will now have a pretty long haul to get to Cincinnati or Louisville. Many just won’t bother.

Here’s what the map looks like without the 42 red pins:

The gaps become very apparent, especially if you live somewhere like Montana, Central Florida, or Upstate New York.

Is this minor league team cut list really going to mean fewer teams?

We now enter the realm of the unknown, so it’s going to be kind of murky. More than 100 members of Congress signed a letter to MLB condemning this plan, implying that MLB’s treasured antitrust exemption could be at risk if they follow through.

However, there are 435 members of the House of Representatives. It takes a lot more than 100 to pass something as earthmoving as pulling the antitrust exemption. MLB has its own PAC, through which it donates roughly half a million dollars per year to politicians from both parties. Rallying a few hundred lawmakers to work against the interests of a big donor is no easy task.

Congress isn’t the only speedbump though. MiLB isn’t owned by MLB outright, and MLB doesn’t have the authority to unilaterally withhold affiliation. MLB and MiLB are separate entities that have to agree to a contract with each other.

Most of the time, those negotiations are likely very straightforward. This time, MiLB president Pat O’Conner is pushing back, as well he should!

We are baseball’s first touch point for millions of kids in this country. We are the first baseball experience for millions of American families. In many cases, we are the only touch point for baseball for millions of fans.

It seems to me that minor league baseball’s future is under an existential threat as we negotiate this next baseball agreement. The next agreement will cover a specific period of time, as is traditionally the case. That’s not new. What is unique is the next agreement could be the most important agreement that we have signed in the last 50 years.

MiLB President Pat O’Conner

It’s nice to see MiLB standing up for itself, refusing to acquiesce to MLB’s bullying negotiation tactics. MLB clearly lacks any public support for disaffiliation, but that doesn’t stop Manfred from doubling down. In response, he has implied that MLB could walk away from MiLB altogether, thereby disaffiliating all minor league teams!

The current agreement between MLB and MiLB expires after the 2020 season. There’s a long way to go between now and when they need to reach an agreement.

Obviously, any number of unforeseeable developments can impact the future of the minor leagues. In the meantime, one noteworthy fan, @BaseballBrit, is doing what he can to highlight the importance of minor league baseball.

We can all make a difference. Contact your representatives and let them know they should not cave to MLB. Support programs, like More Than Baseball, which try to improve the lives and working conditions of minor leaguers.

MLB forgets that baseball doesn’t belong to a bunch of old, rich guys in expensive suits; it never has. It belongs to you and me, to the taxpayers, to the kids, to the fans. The game will always be bigger than the people who reap the profits. Hopefully, Rob Manfred will be reminded of this before he tears apart minor league baseball.

-Daniel R. Epstein

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