Marcell Ozuna Signing and Reasons for Optimism
Last week, news leaked of outfielder Marcell Ozuna signing with the Atlanta Braves. They agreed to a one-year deal worth $18 million dollars. The outfielder is coming off an up and down pair of seasons with St Louis Cardinals, that continued an up and down 5 years in Miami. Ozuna is approaching his age 29 season and it’s still not entirely clear what he is. Is he still the guy who gathered MVP votes in 2016? His 49.2% hard hit rate (15th in the Majors) and 91.8 mph average exit velocity (22nd in the league) would suggest yes. BaseballSavant says the most similar batted ball profile is Freddie Freeman. The Braves would certainly take another Freddie Freeman for the 2020 season.
Maybe you do not care for the batted ball profile, or are skeptical of his strikeout tendencies. That’s fine. this is a guy who has averaged 28 homers, slashing .277/.339/.478, with 94 RBI annually since 2016. Only about 20 players have put up numbers like that over the last 4 years. The Braves just got him for $18M. The contract also comes with little risks as it keeps the doors open for the Braves top prospects, Drew Waters and Cristian Pache in the near future. Both outfielders rank among baseball’s top-50 prospects and could be ready to contribute in 2020, and certainly by 2021.
To this point, I have covered what Ozuna has been, but the Braves discussed their reasons for optimism that Ozuna could be even more. He had offseason surgery in before the 2019 season, and in April 2019, he admitted that the arm was 55% in terms of health. That has likely affected his defense and hitting. The Braves seem to think the shoulder problem is behind him and he will be able to tap into more consistency.
However, with all that good, all that reason for optimism, comes some bad. There are some concerns over Marcell’s drop in the production in 2017 and arm issues tend to linger. Arm issues also do not explain the lack of range that he displayed in the outfield, where he cost the Cardinals roughly half a win last year. His batted ball profile is prolific, sure, but his career walk rate stands at 7.5%, (But it surged to an 11.3% all-time high last year). He has put together an OBP under .330 in 6 of his 7 years in the Majors. Tony Wolters broke that mark last year; it’s not a particularly high bar.
Ozuna might be worth more over the long-term. And pundits on various betting sites, including Agen Judi poker, can’t wait to get a slice of the action going.
How he fits on the Current Roster
The Braves made it known that Ozuna and Ronald Acuna Jr.will be every day players for the Braves. Depending on how his defense plays with the new and improved shoulder, Ozuna may be replaced in late innings. The Braves other outfield options all grade out superior to Ozuna in that category. The three remaining outfielders form quite a strong group in 2020. Each has flaws, but also strengths that manager Brian Snitker could maximize.
- Ender Inciarte is a defensive wizard capable of prolonged streakiness (his 2018 was a tale of two halves – 1st half = .649 OPS, 2nd half = .794 OPS).
- 31 year old Adam Duvall socked 42 homeruns between AAA and the Majors last year and graded out as baseball’s best defensive left fielder in 2018 while with the Reds.
- 36 year old Nick Markakis is a left handed hitting machine with an outside chance at reaching 3000 career hits. He’s also just one year removed from receiving MVP votes.
Between the strength and handedness of each player, the defensive versatility provided by Ronald Acuna Jr. and the ability to play the hot hand, the Braves outfield mix should be interesting this summer.
Many Braves fans expected the Braves to pursue an upgrade at 3rd base, but the Braves appear pleased with letting Johan Camargo and Austin Riley battle for playing time at the position. Camargo put up nearly 4 WAR in 2018 and Riley was a top 50 prospect in baseball last year, who also managed to hit 16 home runs in his first 46 games before falling into a nasty slump. Each deserves a chance to prove what they can do, and it appears that the Braves are going to do just that.
Marcell Ozuna wasn’t the prize that Braves fans wanted, but he represents a low risk upgrade for a team attempting to get back to the postseason and avenge a first round loss. What he represents more than anything is hope. The Braves payroll now sits at its highest level ever, and the roster seems to be complete. The Braves have been active this offseason, giving hope through the cold months. We’re just 55 days from Opening Day.
