Final Week Fun in the American League
With one week left in the 60-ish game 2020 season, there are still division races to be decided and wild card spots to be filled. The best team in baseball is no surprise, but the current #5 seed in the National League is a shocker (the Miami Marlins). Let’s take a look around the American League to see what the final week has in store for us.
AL East
Tampa Bay Rays, 35-19, .648, +51 run-differential, clinched playoff spot
3 @ Mets (.453), 3 vs Phillies (.509)
How can you NOT root for the Tampa Bay Rays? They have the best record in the American League and the second-best record in baseball and they’re doing this despite being 28th in baseball in payroll. They take a 3.5-game lead into the season’s final week, looking to win the division for the third time in their 23-year history and first time since 2010. Second baseman Brandon Lowe (.272/.366/.566, 33 R, 13 HR, 33 RBI, 3 SB) should get some AL MVP votes.
New York Yankees, 31-22, .585, +55 run-differential, clinched playoff spot
4 @ Blue Jays (.509), 3 vs Marlins (.528)
On the morning of Wednesday, September 9, the Yankees had lost five straight games at the end of a 5-15 stretch. They were 21-21 overall and just a half-game ahead of the Orioles for the second AL wild card spot. Non-Yankees fans everywhere relished the thought of 16 teams making the playoffs and the Yankees not being among them. Well, that didn’t happen. They won 10 straight games over the next week-and-a-half and have clinched a playoff spot. As of right now, their first-round matchup would be the Twins, a team they’ve knocked out of the post-season seven times since 2003.
Toronto Blue Jays, 27-26, .509, -27 run-differential
4 vs Yankees (.585), 3 vs Orioles (.426)
The entirety of the Blue Jays’ -27 run-differential is due to their six games against the Yankees this season. Last week, they suffered a three-game sweep by the Yankees in which they were outscored 43-15 and watched the Yankees set the record for most home runs in a three-game span. They still have a solid lead in the wild card race, but if they suffer another sweep by the Yankees, this could get interesting.
Baltimore Orioles, 23-31, .426, -13 run-differential
3 @ Red Sox (.370), 3 @ Blue Jays (.509)
Dream scenario for Orioles fans: the Blue Jays are swept by the Yankees, while the Orioles sweep the Red Sox. Suddenly the Blue Jays are 27-30 and the Orioles are 26-31 and they face each other in the final weekend of the season with an AL wild card spot up for grabs.
Boston Red Sox, 20-34, .370, -73 run-differential
3 vs Orioles (.426), 3 @ Braves (.585)
Perhaps the one bright spot of the 2020 season for Red Sox fans is that they weren’t allowed to attend games at Fenway Park and watch the Red Sox pitchers set a team record for futility. In 119 years (1901-2019), the Red Sox had two teams finish with an ERA of 5.00 or higher. The 1996 Red Sox finished right at 5.00 and the 1932 Red Sox finished at 5.02. The 2020 Red Sox have a 5.89 ERA with six games left. They also have -0.8 WAR, per FanGraphs, which is the worst ever by any team.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox, 34-19, .642, +75 run-differential, clinched playoff spot
4 @ Cleveland (.547), 3 vs Cubs (.585)
If the current seedings in the American League hold up, the White Sox will play their next four games against Cleveland, then three against the Cubs, then the first round of the playoffs against Cleveland again. That’s the team-versus-team rivalry. Individually, the White Sox have two players in strong contention for the AL MVP Award—shortstop Tim Anderson and first baseman Jose Abreu—while Cleveland counters with third baseman Jose Ramirez. The following chart shows the AL MVP contenders, with their FanGraphs WAR (fWAR), Baseball-Reference WAR (bWAR), and the average of both (avWAR):
Minnesota Twins, 33-22, .600, +55 run-differential, clinched playoff spot
2 vs Tigers (.423), 3 vs Reds (.500)
If you’re a Twins fan, do you want to face the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs? On the one hand, it would be a nightmare to once again get bounced from the playoffs by the Evil Empire. On the other hand, it would be very sweet to escape whatever black magic hold the Yankees have over your team. If any Twins team can do it, it’s this one, with Nelson Cruz hitting better than he ever has (172 wRC+) and Kenta Maeda being everything you could ask for after being acquired in a trade with the Dodgers. Would it be a shocker if Randy Dobnak shut down the Yankees in a playoff game?
Cleveland Indians, 29-24, .547, +37 run-differential
4 vs White Sox (.642), 3 vs Pirates (.283)
Despite being five games back in the AL Central, it’s still possible for Cleveland to win the division. It would likely take a sweep of the White Sox to do it. Assuming that happens, the series after the matchup with the White Sox is enticing: Cleveland gets three games against the pitiful Pittsburgh Pirates. Tuesday’s matchup with the White Sox will feature 2020 AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber, who will be looking to win his ninth game and keep his ERA under 2.00.
Detroit Tigers, 22-30, .423, -64 run-differential
2 @ Twins (.600), 4 @ Royals (.396)
The four-game set between the Tigers and Royals to end the season is easily the least important series of the week. I doubt any fans will show up for that one.
Kansas City Royals, 21-32, .396, -34 run-differential
3 vs Cardinals (.520), 4 vs Tigers (.423)
See above. Also, it’s a good joke. Read it again.
AL West
Oakland Athletics, 33-20, .623, +56 run-differential, clinched playoff spot
3 @ Dodgers (.704), 4 vs Mariners (.434)
The A’s are the west coast version of the Rays. They have the third-best record in the AL with the 25th-highest payroll in baseball. The good thing about the 2020 post-season is the A’s getting a three-game series, rather than being knocked out of the post-season in the wild card game for a third straight year. Their likely opponent in the first round of the playoffs is the Houston Astros. You could say there’s some bad blood between them.
Houston Astros, 27-26, .509, +7 run-differential
3 @ Mariners (.434), 4 @ Rangers (.358)
This was supposed to be the year fans outside of Houston got their revenge on the Astros after it was revealed they used a “banging scheme” during their 2017 championship season. If not for the pandemic, we would have seen signs and heard boos and jeers in every city the Astros visited. Instead, for a while, non-Astros fans were teased by a good team having a thoroughly mediocre year and possibly missing the playoffs. That’s very unlikely to happen now, so non-Astros fans will have to hope for an early exit from the playoffs.
Seattle Mariners, 23-29, .442, -57 run-differential
3 vs Astros (.509), 4 @ Athletics (.623)
Realistically, it’s sweep or bust for the Mariners, as they trail the Astros by four games and host them for a three-game series starting on Monday. The Mariners will have their ace, Marco Gonzales, starting the first game, then following him up with Ljay Newsome and Nick Margevicius, also known as two pitchers you’ve never heard of. Even if they sweep the Astros, they still need to keep the wins coming against the A’s, who have defeated them four times in six games so far.
Los Angeles Angels, 23-31, .426, -25 run-differential
1 vs Rangers (.358), 2 @ Padres (.630), 3 @Dodgers (.704)
Unless he has a huge final week, this will be the first time since becoming a regular that Mike Trout won’t lead the Angels in FanGraphs WAR. According to FanGraphs (and Baseball-Reference), Anthony Rendon has provided the most wins above replacement to the team in 2020.
Texas Rangers, 19-34, .358, -76 run-differential
1 @ Athletics (.623), 2 @ Diamondbacks (.370), 4 vs Astros (.509)
It’s only a 60-game season, yes, but it’s still kind of amazing that the 2020 Texas Rangers have a team OBP of just .282 (MLB average is .323). It’s the 14th-lowest single-season team OBP in MLB history. Most of the teams with lower on-base percentages are from the Dead Ball Era, along with the 1965 and 1968 Mets (.277 and .281, respectively).
-Bobby Mueller
