Where Are Baseball’s Best Free Agents Going?
Free agency this offseason will be more unpredictable than ever before. No one knows yet if there will be a DH in the National League next year, most GM’s should be working with limited allowances, and the free agent class itself is filled with question marks. What we do know is that there are impact players out there who can help teams win now and into the future, and those players will be paid millions and millions of dollars. Here’s a summary of where some of the market’s better players may end up, something that may be useful if OTBB decides to bring back the Free Agent Predictor for another year.
Free Agents Ranked #1-10
Trevor Bauer
What can you say about Trevor Bauer? He’s polarizing, mercurial, and one of the most entertaining guys in the league – not to mention one of the best pitchers around. He found another gear in Cincinnati this season, as evidenced by some surface stats from his 11 starts – 73 IP, 1.73 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and an even 100 strikeouts. He placed 6th in Cy Young voting back in 2018 with the Indians, but he’s practically a lock to walk away with the award this year. Not only did he put up great numbers with the Reds, but it sounds like he had a great time there as well –
“I had probably more fun this year playing baseball than I’ve had in, shoot, a long time,” Bauer said. “Probably since college, maybe even more fun than college. That’s really the lasting impression. Being happy, enjoying playing baseball with people that I get along with very well and consider close friends.”
Well, isn’t that nice? Before Reds fans go rushing out to buy more of his jersey, though, keep in mind that Bauer is a mercenary. He’s going to go where the money is, and where he thinks he has the best chance of winning. He’s also gone on record before saying he may be interested in entertaining short-term deals, so it remains to be seen whether he’ll sign a short-term deal with a record-breaking AAV, or a more typical long-term deal that locks him up through his prime. All this makes Bauer one of the most difficult cases to predict in recent memory in terms of how much he’ll get for how long, let along where he might get it from. Contract prediction aside, here’s an educated guess for where he might end up –
Destination: Los Angeles Angels
Most free agents should have a tough time finding big money this offseason, but not Bauer. If he’s serious about taking a short-term contract, he should have no problem breaking the annual salary record. Why the Angels are an ideal suitor? Arte Moreno, their deep-pocketed owner, would probably have no problem shelling out big bucks for a few years of an ace’s prime. The Angels are facing a lot of pressure to win during Mike Trout’s remaining prime years, which they’ve failed to do thus far, and the starting rotation is their biggest area of need. Not to mention – Bauer is an LA-area native (yes, the Dodgers make a lot of sense for him too). A true ace like Bauer heading the Angels’ rotation could be just what they need to start turning the corner.
J.T. Realmuto
Realmuto’s probably the best catcher in the game at this point, and he excels both at hitting and managing a pitching staff. Statcast rated him as the second-best pitch framer in baseball this year, and he’s thrown out a superb 36% of would-be baserunners in his career thus far. Offensively, his .840 OPS in 2020 was a career-best, as was his .349 OBP. That kind of production dwarfs a league-average catcher, so he can basically have his pick of where he’d like to go the most this offseason.
It’s because of his wide range of potential suitors that narrowing down a destination becomes tricky. Perhaps the best course of action is not to overthink it.
Destination: Philadelphia Phillies
A return to the Phillies seems like the most likely option even though it’s far from a sure bet. There’s a chance it will take a sixth year to get him to sign on the dotted line, and rumor is they may be willing to extend that far if that’s what it takes.
John Clark of NBC Sports Philadelphia reported in June the Phillies were willing to offer Realmuto a contract in the range of “4-6 years,” at an average annual value of $23 million. It’s possible they may be willing to stretch that AAV by a couple million if the contract was only for four or five years.
The Phillies are a big-market team with a loud fanbase growing tired of the team’s mediocrity, so losing arguably their best player after Harper would be a very tough pill to swallow. For what it’s worth, he seemingly enjoyed his time in Philly and is good friends with Harper, who has been a vocal advocate for his return.
DJ LeMahieu
Even though he won a batting title with the Rockies, public opinion was that his numbers looked better than they were thanks to the Coors Field effect – in fact, his 93 OPS+ during his time there indicated he was only a so-so hitter. But the Yankees still brought him in on a two-year, $24 million deal, and the rest is history.
His slash line during his Yankee years (.336/.386/.536) equated to a 146 OPS+ and earned him top-four finishes (presumably) in the AL MVP vote each year. He’s 32 now and his career’s taken a pretty unusual trajectory, but his agent is going to be fielding calls from almost every GM in baseball this offseason. My guess, though, is there won’t be a change of address coming in his future.
Destination: New York Yankees
Three free agents so far with two of them staying where they were. The Yankees may have designs on scaling back their payroll a touch, but they’ll get a ton of bad press if they let their best producer this year walk away. He’s certainly looked very comfortable in the confines of Yankee Stadium, and he means too much to them for them to not make a concerted effort to keep him around.
George Springer
Anyone who played for the Astros during their sign-stealing scandal is going to be looked at a bit differently than his peers, but there’s no denying Springer is a superb outfielder. He hit a mere .200 during 2020’s first half, but rebounded nicely during his last 28 regular-season games, hitting .312 with 10 homers in that span. During his 13 playoff games this year he hit .263 with 4 home runs, but the World Series MVP trophy on his shelf does prove that he’s got the clutch factor a lot of playoff hopefuls are looking for, asterisk notwithstanding.
In his seven-year career to date, he’s been worth 26.6 WAR and put up a triple-slash of .270/.361/.491 (134 wRC+) with 174 homers. Fangraphs pegs him as an above-average defender in center and right as well, where he has been worth +14 DRS and +11 DRS in his career so far, respectively. In 2020 he was awarded +6 DRS for his work in center and only -3 DRS in right, though this right field grade was based on only 53 innings in that part of the grass.
Going forward, teams can probably assume he will be able to play center competently for a couple more years before settling in as a permanent right fielder after that.
Being arguably the best outfielder in this class means there will be tons of interest in Springer, but it appears any interest Houston shows to bring him back may be futile. ESPN’s Patrick Creighton tweeted that Springer does not want to return to the Astros, though USA Today’s Michael Schwab added that this had more to do with his preference to be near his family than any vitriol towards his former employer. Springer and his family live in upstate New York during the offseason, so teams in the northeast may have the best shot at landing him.
Destination: New York Mets
Why the Mets? Billionaire Steve Cohen is about to take ownership of the team away from the wretched Wilpons, and reeling in a big name like Springer would be a great way to endear himself to the fanbase. Yoenis Cespedes’ money is also off the books now, which could free up the cash necessary to bring in a much more competent replacement. Springer’s family living close by only adds fuel to the theory that the Mets might want to keep a locker in Citi Field open for him.
Marcell Ozuna
The second outfielder in this list, Ozuna is coming off a monster season with the Braves. He played in all 60 of their games, hitting .338/.431/.636 (179 wRC+) with 18 homers and 2.5 WAR. He was on pace to put up his best full-season effort yet, but he also put up superstar-worthy numbers in his last year with the Marlins in 2017, so his ceiling is no aberration.
His defensive contributions have been modest at best, and even though he did log a few innings in center and right in 2020, he’s a better fit as a left fielder or designated hitter. In fact, he appeared as a DH in 39 of his 60 games in 2020, if that gives you any indication of what the Braves think of his defense. His agency, MDR Sports Management, will no doubt talk up his defensive flexibility when negotiating with teams though.
Another point in his favor is that he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer, having already rejected one from the Cardinals last year. Because of that, the Braves won’t receive any prospect compensation should he decide to leave, and the team who signs him won’t have to give up a pick to get him. This might make him a better target for small- to medium-market teams to go after than Springer would be. However, a return to the Braves just makes too much sense for him.
Destination: Atlanta Braves
The Braves don’t generally shell out big bucks for true top-of-the-market talent, but Ozuna’s earning power will be tamped down somewhat for two reasons. One, his history of offensive production has been inconsistent to this point, despite having two silver-slugger caliber seasons under his belt. From 2018-19 with the Cardinals, he put up a .262/.327/.451 line in 1,177 plate appearances, which equated to a 108 wRC+ that put him only 8% better than the league-average hitter. Since 2020 was a shortened season, he may not have had enough time to prove that he can be counted on to produce at an elite level consistently. Secondly, his questionable defense will limit his value in the eyes of some teams, especially with the DH not a sure thing to stick around in the National League just yet.
These are factors that may limit his price just enough for the Braves to resign him, where he has proven he has the ceiling of the elite middle-of-the-order producer that they will need if they have designs on making it to the World Series next year.
Liam Hendriks
Hendriks is the best reliever in the class, and one of the few true elite closers in this game. He just won the Mariano Rivera AL Reliever of the Year award, and over the last two seasons with Oakland he’s thrown 110.1 innings to the tune of a 1.79 ERA/1.70 FIP with 161 strikeouts against 24 walks. He’s definitely been a late bloomer, with this stellar run of production contrasting his more pedestrian career 4.10 ERA/3.44 FIP, but it does seem as if he’s turned a real corner. He’ll be 32 on Opening Day next year, but he should have no trouble signing a three- or four-year deal.
Destination: Los Angeles Dodgers
Fresh off a championship-winning season, the one kink in their armor during the postseason appeared to be the back of their bullpen. Kenley Jansen, once an elite closer himself, struggled to get it done and blew Game 4 of the World Series in memorable fashion. Bringing in Hendriks would truly lock down the 9th inning for the Dodgers and replace another former Athletic, Blake Treinen, who’s set to leave LA via free agency.
Marcus Semien
The second Athletic in a row on this list, Oakland will clearly have multiple holes to fill this offseason. He’s one year removed from an epic 2019 season where he slashed .285/.369/.522 (137 wRC+) with 33 homers and 7.6 WAR, playing in all 162 of their contests and drawing stellar defensive reviews.
2020, short as it may have been, was a completely different story as he took a big step back on both sides of the ball. At the plate, he mustered only a .223/.305/.374 (91 wRC+) line through 236 plate appearances, though he did go 11-for-27 in the postseason. Defensively, his +12 DRS in 2019 slipped to -5 in 2020, with the quantifier that his UZR/150 suggests that he was still an above-average defender there. Another late bloomer with a high ceiling but a few question marks, Semien should expect to land a multi-year deal with a modest AAV.
Destination: Philadelphia Phillies
Semien would be a capable replacement for Didi Gregorius should he depart the Phils via free agency. The A’s are relatively unlikely to make Semien a qualifying offer due to their budgetary constraints, so little will stand in the way of him leaving his Bay Area home.
Marcus Stroman
Stroman opted out of playing in the 2020 season, but he was quite good between the Blue Jays and Mets in 2019, pitching 184.1 innings of 3.22 ERA/3.72 FIP ball. He doesn’t strike out many and performed poorly in 2018, but his career 3.76 ERA/3.64 FIP proves he can be a capable mid-rotation starter on a contender. Stroman still finds himself in top 10 free agent rankings despite sitting out the season thanks to this year’s remarkably thin pitching class, and the added benefit that a year of rest for his arm might have done him a service.
Destination: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox made the confounding decision to bring Tony La Russa back from retirement to manage the team, but their roster has a ton of talent on hand if they can put it all together. One more solid starter added to a mix featuring Giolito, Keuchel, Cease, Dunning, Rodón and Kopech could make them a scary threat in a weak AL Central.
Didi Gregorius
Gregorius is coming off a one-year deal signed with the Phillies to regain his value following Tommy John surgery. He delivered on that promise, hitting .284/.339/.488 (116 wRC+) while playing in all 60 games for the team. Since the start of the 2017 season he has slashed .270/.318/.477 (109 wRC+), which for a shortstop is solidly above-average – particularly when you consider he’s one of the few left-handed hitting shortstops in the league. While not an elite performer, he’d certainly be a stabilizing presence for a number of teams’ infields.
Destination: Cleveland Indians
Wait, what? This may be a weird fit at first blush, but Francisco Lindor may have already played his last game as the face of the Indians. If they finally pull the trigger and trade him for some cheap young talent this offseason, which many in the industry see as a very realistic possibility, Gregorius could replace him at shortstop and allow them to fill other holes through the trade return.
Nelson Cruz
The ageless wonder, Cruz is continuing his offensive tour de force even as he heads into his forties. While he had a very impressive stint with the Mariners several years ago, he’s gone above and beyond even that level since joining the Twins, hitting a combined .308/.394/.626 (163 wRC+) with 57 homers over the last two seasons with them. Betting on him slowing down anytime soon might be akin to betting Blake Snell can’t make it a third time through the Dodgers’ lineup.
Destination: Minnesota Twins
His market will be limited by being a DH-only player at this point, and he simply means too much to the Twins’ lineup for them to risk letting him go. Whether he gets a one- or two-year deal this offseason, there’s a good chance that Cruz finishes his career in the Twin Cities.
Free Agents Ranked #11-20
Jackie Bradley Jr.
Destination: Boston Red Sox
Pegging Bradley Jr. to return to Boston came about more out of the process of elimination than anything else. Bradley’s been a below-average hitter for his career, but his ability to draw walks and hit for some power has helped counterbalance his low batting averages to a degree.
More important than his hitting has always been his outstanding centerfield defense, but he also put up his best offensive season since 2016 this year, compiling a .283/.364/.450 slash line in his 217 plate appearances.
The Giants have been frequently connected to him, but with a couple lefty bats in their outfield already in Mike Yastrzemski and Alex Dickerson, he may not be the best allocation of their resources. The Rockies, Pirates and Royals all have openings in their outfield but are more likely to pursue a guy like Kevin Pillar than someone in Bradley’s price range. A return to Boston would allow the Sox to keep Andrew Benintendi in left or trade him, and his defense would help support their dismal pitching staff.
Michael Brantley
Destination: Houston Astros
With Springer leaving for the Mets in these predictions, it’s doubtful that the Astros would let him, Brantley and Josh Reddick all walk away in a single offseason. Though he’ll be nearing his 34th birthday on Opening Day, Brantley has been an above-average hitter in 8 of his past 9 seasons, and he knows how to make contact – he hit an even .300 in 2020 and .297 for his career. High-average, low-strikeout hitters like him are something the Astros need more of, especially with Springer’s departure leaving a gaping hole in the outfield.
Andrelton Simmons
Destination: Los Angeles Angels
Long one of the best (if not THE best) defensive shortstops in the game, Simmons plays too critical a part in the Angels’ quest for run suppression to just let him go. It’s doubtful they’ll stick him with a qualifying offer, but Simmons is another player whose market may be quieter than he might be expecting. He’s on the wrong side of 30, and even though he hit an impressive .297 in 2020, it came in just 30 of their games thanks to an ankle injury. He’s been a below-average hitter for his career, too, with an uninspiring .269/.317/.379 (91 wRC+) line in over a thousand games. His reaction time will only slow as he gets older, so his incredible defense of days gone by may turn into just pretty good defense going forward. He could still get a multi-year deal at a modest cost, but it’s most likely coming from the Angels.
Kolten Wong
Destination: Detroit Tigers
While it was surprising to see the Cardinals decline Wong’s $12.5 million option for 2021, there doesn’t appear to be many contenders with a strong need at second base right now. A return to the Cardinals certainly is plausible, as is a move to Oakland to replace the departing lefty bats of Tommy La Stella and Jake Lamb, but a shot at consistent playing time may be enticing enough for Wong to pack his bags for Detroit. He’s not the hitter that the departing Jonathan Schoop is, but he can help make up for that and more with his incredible defense helping to solidify the Tigers’ infield.
Brad Hand
Destination: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox’ second and final entry into the top-20 free agents pool. It’s hard to believe that Hand is even available, with the Indians declining his affordable $10 million option. Any club that claims Hand would be able to pick up that option and retain him for the 2021 season at that $10MM price, so they can step into the deal with no future obligations. Waiver priority is based on reverse order of the league-wide standings, so the Pirates, Rangers, Tigers, Red Sox, D-backs, Orioles, Nationals, Mets, Rockies and Angels have the first shot at claiming Hand, in that order. With so many pitching-needy teams out there, it’s seems all but impossible that he won’t be claimed. The Pirates, Rangers and Tigers are all unlikely to want to spend $10 million on a reliever, but the Red Sox could with the intent on flipping him for prospects should he have a good first half.
Update: Hand wasn’t claimed. It’s baffling and seems like as strong a sign as any that we’re in for a very slow and depressed free agent market this winter.
Justin Turner
Destination: Los Angeles Dodgers
Turner made some unfortunate headlines recently thanks to testing positive for COVID-19 near the end of the World Series’ Game 7. He’s now under investigation for disregarding COVID-19 protocols and refusing to isolate after his diagnosis. You can understand the emotion of wanting to celebrate a championship with your teammates, at least, and there’s no doubt he was a key part of helping them win it. His .307/.400/.460 (140 wRC+) line in 2020 was only slightly better than his impressive career line, which only took off once he left the Mets for the Dodgers in 2014. He’s been an above-average hitter every year since, though he will be 36 on Opening Day next season. Other teams may have a little trouble looking past his advanced age and image repercussions from the ongoing investigation, leaving the Dodgers to bring him back on a deal that may let him retire wearing Dodger Blue.
James Paxton
Destination: Washington Nationals
The Nationals must have hoped that they wouldn’t have to worry about their rotation this offseason after choosing to retain Stephen Strasburg on a long-term deal over Anthony Rendon this time last year. Strasburg may or may not be ready for Spring Training, and there appears to be a wide-open spot in the rotation not occupied by him, Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, or Erick Fedde. Switching to the National League might be just what the doctor ordered to reinvigorate Paxton, who won’t cost an arm and a leg because of his injury concerns and recent poor performance. But make no mistake – The Big Maple’s ceiling is still high.
Kevin Gausman
Destination: San Francisco Giants
Gausman proved that he could still be an effective starter as a Giant in 2020, showing more of the excellent strikeout stuff he showed out of the bullpen with the Reds last season. In his 59.2 innings this year he posted a 3.62 ERA/3.09 FIP with 79 strikeouts against 16 walks, by far the best pitching effort of any Giants starter. Jeff Samardzija, Drew Smyly and Trevor Cahill are also free agents for the Giants this offseason, so bringing Gausman back would at least go part of the way towards filling out their weakened rotation.
Masahiro Tanaka
Destination: New York Yankees
It would be strange to see Tanaka in any other uniform. The Yankees’ rotation situation is shaky right now thanks to him and Paxton entering free agency, so bringing at least one of those two back seems like a necessity. Tanaka seems the more likely of the two to keep the pinstripes on, so expect a modest depth addition to account for some of the innings Paxton would have provided them.
Ha-Seong Kim
Destination: Oakland A’s
Like most KBO ballplayers, guessing how their production would translate to MLB is a tough business. According to Keith Law’s free agent roundup, he put up the 7th-best OBP in the league this season and the 11th-best slugging percentage while splitting his time between shortstop and third base. His home with the A’s, the team which he has been connected to the most so far, would predominantly be shortstop thanks to the presence of Matt Chapman. The scouting report on him is, again according to Keith Law’s report, that “he’s not a lock to be able to stay at short in MLB, possibly moving to third or second or just becoming a utility infielder who moves between all three. At the plate, he has good hand-eye coordination and some power, but he gets long and his front side goes very soft in his swing, so hitting MLB velocity consistently could be a real problem.” He will only be 25 on opening day, though, so his status as one of the more youthful free agents available should make him an appealing asset.
Honorable Mentions #21-25
- José Quintana. Destination: New York Mets
- Taijuan Walker. Destination: Chicago Cubs
- José Iglesias. Destination: Miami Marlins
- Joc Pederson. Destination: Texas Rangers
- Tommy La Stella. Destination: San Francisco Giants
