Trevor Bauer to LA Dodgers- What Does It Mean
The last of the premier free agents has been signed. Trevor Bauer has chosen LA over NY in a much publicized and drawn out process, in typical Bauer fashion. His management team (as he explained in a twitter thread) accidentally released Mets themed merchandise on the website as well as signed hats for both the Mets and Dodgers. Whether an intentional troll or not, he was the story of the baseball world in early February. Regardless of his actions on Twitter, the Dodgers pledged 3 Years and $100+ Million Dollars, including the highest single season salary in MLB history at $40+ Million in 2021.
Bauer is coming off a shortened CY Young season that was as dominant as it was perplexing. Dramatic spikes in his spin rate and movement played no small part in his decimation of mostly NL Central foes. Among his opponents, only the White Sox finished with a WRC+ above 100, which says a lot about his competition (which is no fault of his). However, he pitched well against the White Sox – 7 IP, 5K, 2ER. We’re not exploring if the Twitter star is overrated herein and we’ll just accept that the increases in his spin rate (300+ on FB, Slider, Curveball) are probably real, whether pine tar aided or not. He has long been documented as a hard worker, and is at the forefront of pitch design and data, so the smart money (and LA’s money) is on him being worth the contract.
The exploration here is more on how this moves (or doesn’t move) the needle for the Dodgers, and what it means for the rest of the NL.
- The Mets’s finished runner up, and there’s a fallout there.
- The Padres traded for every other pitcher it seemed, but now the Dodgers reloaded.
- There are sweeping effects from this deal across the National League.
The Padres
They have been busy all winter trying to capitalize on Fernando Tatis Jr.’s superstar talent before he gets paid like a superstar, along with the maturation of the team’s core.
The rotation has been completely re-assembled, as they’ve acquired the 2018 Cy Young winner (Blake Snell), the 2020 runner-up (Yu Darvish) and an interesting Mid-Rotation Arm (Joe Musgrove).
They re-signed Jurickson Profar and signed Ha-seong Kim – who hit over .300 and hit 30 HRs in the KBO. Both are worthy starters on any team but profile as part-time players because of the incredible depth the Padres have assembled. And the result of all these moves?
They are still projected 4.4 WAR behind the Dodgers, or almost one full Trevor Bauer projection (3.8 WAR).
However, all is not lost, the Padres still have a top 5 farm system and their core is mostly signed going forward. What this does confirm is that the NL West is going to be an absolute dogfight all year. The Dodgers sat back and watched the Padres’ moves, before finally hitting back. The Padres are going to need more than a little bit of luck to avoid the fate of the Wild Card game. Either way, we’ll be watching.
The Mets
Losing out on Bauer prevents them from establishing themselves as the clear and away favorite in the NL East and placing themselves firmly in the World Series discussion.
Regardless, the Mets (40 WAR) are still in prime position in the NL East. Only the Dodgers ((47.5 WAR) and Padres (43.1 WAR) are projected to have higher WARs in the NL. The Braves (38.4 WAR) are behind by about a Win and a Half. This is a negligible difference, and should be treated as such.
The Braves and Mets are basically deadlocked in my eyes, as Syndergaard’s projections are included in the team’s overall projection. Returning from Tommy John Surgery by itself is hard, but returning and being effective? Extremely hard. The Mets seemingly know this as they have worked hard to acquire notable depth for the rotation – Jordan Yamamoto, Joey Lucchesi and Sean Reid-Foley are all capable fill-in/#5 starters.
What this means for the Mets:
- They finally have the money that is befitting of a New York team, so this is simple. You have young, good-great players that enjoy playing in your city. Extend them, keep the core intact, keep the foundation of the MLB roster strong.
- Prepare to make a mid-season move. 162 games is a lot. Players get hurt, regress or sometimes are just generally ineffective. There are no sure things. The Braves are going to be good, and the Nats promise to be pesky. The Marlins made the playoffs last year. The Phillies are bringing back largely the same roster, albeit with a Russian roulette gauntlet of relievers. This is going to be a very competitive division. More than likely, reinforcements will be needed.
- Avoid the Wild Card Game at all costs. One of the Dodgers and Padres will not win the division, that’s simple math. The loser will still be a good team. This is not a game you want to play in, even with DeGrom on the hill. One mistake and a season could be gone.
The National League
The Dodgers were the best team before this move. Now they’re even better.
The Dodgers have let it be known that they have no intention of releasing their vice grip on the rest of the NL. They also remain one of the best at finding and developing talent, as their top 10 Farm system shows.
As for the rest of baseball, well, the Dodgers are looking as if they’re poised to rip off a 1990s New York Yankees run. They are a functioning dynasty. The game has been seemingly missing this, and by “this” I mean: a dominant colossus hellbent on winning that is unafraid to spend money in the way Hank Steinbrenner was so fondly remembered.
When Andrew Friedman left Tampa Bay for LA in 2014, people pondered what would happen when his small market prowess and eye for talent and development were aided by a blank check ownership group. The answer: 6 straight division titles, 3 NL Pennants, 3 World Series Trips and 1 Title. So far.
One day the Dodger’s reign will end, but that day is not soon.
-Evan Brown
