A Minor League Baseball Surge in Steals, Scoring, and Strikeouts
Now that I’m fully-vaccinated (10/10, would recommend), I spent the last two weeks watching minor league baseball in the Pacific Northwest. It had been more than 20 months since the last game I attended, as the 2020 season was completely wiped out by the pandemic. The ballpark was limited to 25 percent capacity, with six feet of distance between pods of fans, but it was baseball and I was there and life felt somewhat normal again.
I saw many of the regulars who usually sat in the section around me, although the seating restrictions scattered them a bit around the ballpark. Many of the stadium workers were the same, and the team’s mascot, Webbly, was doing his thing, surrounded by the Frog Squad.
The setting was Funko Field, home of the Everett Aquasox, the Seattle Mariners’ affiliate that plays in the High-A West League. This is a new level for the Aquasox, and its a long way from Pennsylvania, though if you are in the Keystone State, there are a lot of good MLB betting sites in PA. When minor league baseball was last played back in 2019, the Aquasox played in the short-season Northwest League, which was the same level as the New York-Penn League in the east. Their schedule ran from mid-June to early September and the average age of a short-season league player was just under 21 years old. The players in High-A, the level at which the Aquasox now play, are a bit older and more experienced.
The league changes are a result of MLB’s significant overhaul of the minor league system. The minor leagues no longer have the International League or the Pacific Coast League or the South Atlantic League. The leagues have been re-named based on level and location, like the Triple-A East and Triple-A West. The High-A West League is one of three High-A leagues, along with the High-A East and High-A Central.
Not every team from the old Northwest League survived to become members of the High-A West League. The Salem-Keizer Volcanoes and Boise Hawks didn’t make the cut. The Volcanoes created a new Independent League called the Mavericks League that includes the Volcanoes, Portland Mavericks, Salem Senators, and Campesinos de Salem-Keizer. Back in the 1970s, the Portland Mavericks were a very popular independent team owned by actor Bing Russell, father of Kurt Russell, who played for the Mavericks in 1973. The entertaining story of those Mavericks was told in The Battered Bastards of Baseball, a 2014 documentary (also highly recommended). The Boise Hawks are now part of the Pioneer League, which is considered an MLB Partner League. In 2019, they were an affiliate of the Colorado Rockies.
Along with the restructuring of the minor leagues came some new rules for each level that includes bigger bases in Triple-A, limited shifting in Double-A, and changes to the pick-off rules in High-A and Low-A. In the Low-A Southeast League, some games use the automatic ball-strike system. In the Low-A West League, time between pitches is being enforced, along with time enforcements on inning breaks and pitching changes.
The goal of these assorted changes is “to put more balls in play, create more excitement on the basepaths and increase the impact of speed and athleticism on the field,” according to Raul Ibanez, MLB senior vice president of on-field operations. The rule implemented at the High-A level requires pitchers to disengage from the rubber before throwing to any base. For example, lefties can no longer lift their foot in the air and step halfway between first and home on their pick-off attempts.
Based on the 10 games I watched, this rule has definitely increased stolen base attempts. Four of the 10 games I attended had five or more stolen base attempts, including one game in which the two teams combined for 11 steal attempts and another with nine steal attempts. Overall, base stealers were 39 of 48 (81 percent) in the 10 games. Their 2.4 attempts per team per game that I attended is just slightly higher than the league average of 2.2 stolen base attempts per team per game. The Vancouver Canadiens have played 36 games and have the two league leaders in steals so far this season—Tanner Kirwer (22 steals in 24 attempts) and Cameron Eden (18 steals in 20 attempts).
It should be noted that the High-A West League is by far the most aggressive on the basepaths of the three High-A leagues. Teams in the High-A East are averaging 1.7 steal attempts per team per game and teams in the High-A Central are averaging 1.4 steal attempts per team per game. The three leagues combined are averaging 1.7, which is about a half-steal attempt higher than High-A teams in 2019. Most of the difference is in successful attempts, as High-A players were successful 67 percent of the time in 2019 compared to 78 percent of the time so far this year. The new rule is definitely having an effect on the basepaths.
Along with the increase in stolen base attempts and success rate has been an increase in scoring, from 4.1 runs per game at the High-A level in 2019 to 4.9 runs per game in 2021. The shape of the offense has been different, though:
4.9 R/G, .231/.325/.379, 27% K%, 11% BB%—High-A in 2021
4.1 R/G, .245/.320/.366, 24% K%, 9% BB%–High-A in 2019
High-A players have a lower batting average and are striking out more often than two years ago, but are also walking more, hitting for more power, stealing more bases with a higher rate of success, and scoring more runs. It’s a bit of a mixed bag. It’s nice to have more movement on the bases and more run scoring, but the increase in strikeouts and walks is troubling. One of the games I attended had 22 walks and it was a slog to get through.
The first Aquasox game I went to this season was on June 1. Unfortunately, the player I most looked forward to seeing, Julio Rodriguez, was away from the team because he was playing with the Dominican Republic squad attempting to earn a berth in the Olympics at the Baseball Americas Qualifier. The 20-year-old Rodriguez is one of the top prospects in baseball. He ranks 5th on the MLB Pipeline Top-100 and is joined on the list by Aquasox teammates Emerson Hancock (25th) and George Kirby (76th).
Even without Rodriguez in the lineup, the Aquasox banged out 20 hits and scored 16 runs, including six big flies that left the yard. In the 10 games they played at home over the two-week stretch, they had games in which they scored 16, 13, 8, 9, and 9 runs. Through their first 34 games, the Aquasox lead the league with 6.5 runs per game and 41 homers. The next highest-scoring team is the Eugene Emeralds, averaging 5.0 runs per game. The top four hitters in the league by OPS are Aquasox players.
A closer look reveals a significant home/road split for the Aquasox:
16 G, 8.5 R/G, 31 HR, .301/.403/.569—Home
18 G, 4.8 R/G, 10 HR, .224/.328/.353—Away
We’re still in small sample size territory, but there’s been a significant difference in the production at home and on the road for Aquasox hitters, as you can see above. Funko Field inflated runs (1.076 runs park factor) and home runs (1.87 HR park factor) when the Aquasox played in the short-season Northwest League in 2019. Their run factor was in the 87th percentile among all 160 minor league parks in 2019 and their home run park factor was in the 83rd percentile. It looks like it will be more of the same as a High-A park and perhaps even more extreme because the players are older, bigger, and stronger.
Below is an overhead look at Funko Field with the dimensions listed on their outfield walls. The outfield walls are high to prevent some cheap home runs, but it’s still very hitter friendly.
Playing in a park like this can skew the perception of a team’s players. Julio Rodriguez, one of the best prospects in baseball as mentioned above, is putting up good numbers for a 20-year-old in High-A: .327/.415/.589, but his home/road splits are notable:
55 PA, 18 R, 6 HR, 13 RBI, 7 BB, 6 K, .391/.491/.913—Home
68 PA,8 R, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 6 BB, 20 K, .279/.353/.344—Away
Again, this is still a small sample size, but the difference is extreme. All of Rodriguez’ home runs have come at home and his strikeout rate is noticeably better at home (11 percent) versus away (29 percent) from Funko Field. You have to wonder how this will affect the development of Aquasox hitters and pitchers going forward. I’ll let the Mariners worry about that. I’m just glad minor league baseball is back.
