Throwing a Debut No-Hitter in the Statcast Era
Last week, Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Tyler Gilbert threw a no-hitter in his first major league start, joining Theodore Breitenstein, Bumpus Jones, and Bobo Holloman as the only pitchers to toss a no-no in their first MLB starts (hat tip, Sarah Langs). The no-hitters thrown by Breitenstein (1891) and Jones (1892) occurred before the distance from home plate to the pitcher’s rubber was set at 60-feet, 6-inches, although MLB Historian John Thorn has written that the previous distance from the front of the “pitcher’s box” to the center of home plate wasn’t far off from today’s distance, all things considered. So yeah, when your feat harkens to the 1890s, your feat is historic.
Even the most die-hard baseball fans have likely never heard of Theodore Breitenstein or Bumpus Jones, but may have known that Bobo Holloman threw a no-hitter in his first MLB start in 1953. Holloman was 30 years old when he debuted with the St. Louis Browns. He had spent the previous seven years toiling in the minor leagues before getting a chance with a Browns team that went 53-100 that season, which isn’t far off from the 57-105 record projected for Tyler Gilbert’ Arizona Diamondbacks team this year.
Before throwing his no-hitter, Holloman pitched four times in relief and did not fare well, posting an 8.44 ERA and 2.44 WHIP. Despite his struggles, he kept pestering his manager, Marty Marion, to give him a start, even going so far as to demand a trade if he didn’t get to be a starting pitcher. Marion finally relented and Holloman was scheduled to face the New York Yankees on April 28.
The 1953 Yankees went 99-52 and won the AL pennant by 8.5 games over Cleveland. They had Yogi Berra at catcher, Joe Collins at first base, and an outfield of Mickey Mantle, Gene Woodling, and Hank Bauer. They averaged a league-best 5.3 runs per game in a league that averaged 4.5 runs per game. Fortunately for Holloman, his start against the Yankees was rained out.
Instead of facing the vaunted Yankees, Holloman made his first big-league start against the Philadelphia Athletics, a team that went 59-95 and averaged 4.0 runs per game, second-lowest in the league. They had two power threats, outfielder Gus Zernial, who hit 42 homers and had 108 RBI, and first baseman Eddie Robinson, who launched 22 dingers and drove in 102 runs (Robinson is also baseball’s oldest living player and currently hosts a podcast called The Golden Age of Baseball).
According to this SABR article, Holloman had some good fortune in his no-hitter. The aforementioned Gus Zernial hit a deep line drive to left that outfielder Jim Dyck made a “circus performance” catch on. Another Athletic, Allie Clark, hit a long fly to left that went foul by a few feet. Later in the game, Zernial hit a bouncer up the middle that Holloman leaped to catch, then dropped. Zernial was safe, but the played was ruled an error on Holloman. In the eighth inning, Holloman received more help from his defense when shortstop Billy Hunter made a nice play on a hard grounder far to his left to throw out Joe Astroth.
The ninth inning was a tightrope walk. Holloman issued free passes to the first two batters before inducing a double play by Dave Philley, which moved the lead runner from second to third base. Holloman then walked the next batter. That brought up Eddie Robinson. With two strikes, he ripped a ball down the first-base line that was foul by inches. Robinson flew out on the next pitch and Holloman had his no-hitter. In the game, he struck out just three of the 31 batters he faced while walking five.
In most no-hitters, there are balls in play that could have been hits. We often see line drives right at fielders, long fly balls that outfielders make great catches on, hard-hit grounders that find a glove. Unless a pitcher strikes out all 27 batters, which has never happened, there will be balls in play that have potential to be hits.
By definition, a team that is no-hit has a .000 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). This year, the league-wide BABIP is .292. Back in 1920, it was .297. The median BABIP over the last 100 years is .287, with a range from .269 in 1968, also known as “The Year of the Pitcher,” to .312 in 1930, when offense skyrocketed not-so-mysteriously during the Great Depression.
If a pitcher throws a no-hitter and only strikes out three batters, like Bobo Holloman, that means he’s allowed plenty of balls in play that could land for hits. As you’d imagine, most pitchers who throw no-hitters strike out more than three batters. At the extreme low end, there have been four pitchers since 1901 who have thrown no-hitters while not striking out a single batter. According to Baseball-Reference’s Statcast database, Pete Dowling (1901), Earl Hamilton (1912), Sad Sam Jones (1923), and Ken Holtzman (1969) have all done the trick.
On the other end of the spectrum are Max Scherzer (2015) and Nolan Ryan (1973), who each struck out 17 batters in no-hitters. Ryan also had a 16-strikeout no-hitter, a 15-strikeout no-hitter, a 14-strikeout no-hitter, a 12-strikeout no-hitter, an 11-strikeout no-hitter, and a 9-strikeout no-hitter. Yep, that’s seven no-hitters in all, including no-hitters when he was 43 and 44 years old.
Consider the luck factor for a pitcher tossing a no-no. If he strikes out 3 batters, then the other 24 outs must come on balls in play, meaning the other team must go roughly 0-for-24 when they make fair contact (keeping in mind that double-plays can alter this slightly). For Scherzer and Ryan, who struck out 17 in their no-hitters, the opposing team only had to go roughly 0-for-10 on balls in play to be no-hit.
All of which brings us to Mr. Tyler Gilbert. He was a 6th round pick out of USC by the Phillies in the 2015 MLB June Amateur Draft. He made his way up to Triple-A in the 2018 season and pitched there exclusively in 2019. The Diamondbacks acquired him last winter through the minor league Rule 5 Draft. He spent most of this season with the Triple-A West Reno Aces before getting the call to the major leagues in early August. He made three relief appearances allowing no earned runs in 3 2/3 innings before his first MLB start on Saturday.
In his no-hitter, Gilbert walked three and struck out five, which left plenty of balls in play that could have ruined the no-no. Because we live in the Statcast era, we can take a closer look at the balls in play that were most likely to be hits against Gilbert. In the game, there were five balls hit by Padres hitters with an exit velocity over 100 mph and seven balls hit with an expected batting average (xBA) over .450. Expected Batting Average is a Statcast metric that measures the likelihood that a batted ball will become a hit. It is based on exit velocity, launch angle, and sprint speed on certain types of batted balls.
Gilbert began his no-hitter by walking Tommy Pham to start the game, then inducing a double-play grounder off the bat of Adam Frazier and striking out Manny Machado. Nothing to see here in the first inning.
In the second inning, Jake Cronenworth hit a fly ball to center for out number one. Then came Austin Nola, who hit a hard line drive up the middle with an exit velocity of 105.3 mph and an xBA of .590 that Josh Van Meter knocked down and threw to first for the out. Van Meter was positioned right where he needed to be. Had he been playing the traditional spot for a second baseman, he would not have been in position to play Nola’s liner and the no-no would have ended early. Credit one out to the Diamondbacks’ defensive positioning coach.
Eric Hosmer followed with another hard-hit ball (exit velocity of 106.6, xBA of .630) but, once again, Van Meter was in the right spot at the right time. He fielded the ball in short right field and threw Hosmer out at first. At the Baseball-Reference.com boxscore, these back-to-back plays were both scored as “Groundout: 2B-1B” but Nola’s included “(Deep SS-2B)” as a descriptor and Hosmer’s included “(Short CF-RF)”. The Diamondbacks’ defensive positioning coach was having a good day.
After Pham walked again to lead off the top of the fourth inning, Adam Frazier hit a hard line drive (94.6 mph exit velocity, .590 xBA) right at first baseman Pavin Smith, who caught the ball and doubled off Pham. Manny Machado followed with the hardest-hit ball of the night (112.2 mph, .810 xBA), but the line drive to left was caught easily by David Peralta. Through four innings, Gilbert had allowed four balls that had an expected batting average of .590 or higher, yet he still had the no-hitter intact.
Eric Hosmer almost ended the suspense with two outs in the top of the fifth. On the first pitch from Gilbert, The Hoz lined a ball (96.1 mph, .560 xBA) back up the middle that Gilbert snagged from the air for the third out.
The eighth inning was also interesting. The Padres were down 7-0 and Gilbert had thrown 88 pitchers. Instead of working the count a bit, the Padres came out swinging. Austin Nola hit the first pitch he saw deep to left field, where it was caught by David Peralta. It’s been described as a “leaping grab at the wall” but in my humble opinion it doesn’t look like a leap was necessary. See for yourself. Nola’s drive had an exit velocity of 97.9, but only a .160 xBA. That ball is an out most of the time, with or without an unnecessary leap by the outfielder. Hosmer came up next and was once again a victim of the BABIP Gods. On the first pitch he saw, he hit a hard grounder to short (97.8 mph, .450 xBA) for the second out. Wil Myers followed by also swinging at the first pitch and hitting a deep fly ball to center field (100.5 mph, .280 xBA). After the three-pitch inning, Gilbert took his no-hitter into the ninth inning having thrown just 91 pitches, with his dad in the stands very excited about the possibilities.
Gilbert and his 89.8 mph average velocity fastball went to work in the top of the ninth. He struck out Trent Grisham looking, then did the same to pinch-hitter Ha-Seong Kim. That brought Tommy Pham to the dish. He had walked in his three previous plate appearances. This time up, he swung at the first pitch he saw and hit a line drive to right-center field. The drive had a 91.5 mph exit velocity and an expected batting average of .750, but Ketel Marte had him played perfectly and made the catch to seal the no-hitter for Tyler Gilbert (and a final kudo to the Diamondbacks’ defensive positioning coach).
Bobo Holloman threw a no-hitter in his first MLB start, which occurred on May 6, 1953. Over the next ten weeks, he would make nine more starts and pitch in relief eight times. On July 23, with a 5.23 ERA and 1.82 WHIP, Holloman was sold to Toronto of the International League. He never pitched in the major leagues again. Here’s hoping Tyler Gilbert has more lasting success than Bobo Holloman. Unfortunately for Gilbert, his start on Friday is in the hitter’s haven of Coors Field, where batted balls are more likely to find grass than in most any other park. Still, with good pitching and good fortune, he has a chance to equal Johnny Vander Meer’s record of two consecutive no-hitters set back in 1938.
