Free Agent Outlook: Outfield
In my predictions last week on where I thought the offseason’s best free agent middle infielders would end up, I expected that most premium players on the market would wait until later into the offseason to sign. That assumption looks incorrect so far. The pitching market has been moving fast, with Eduardo Rodriguez, Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander and even Andrew Heaney already latching on to new clubs (or old clubs in Verlander’s case). Teams usually are more desperate for pitching at the onset of free agency, and some players and agents might have the mentality that it would be wisest to grab their bag of money before the CBA expires. None of the market’s best free agent outfielders have inked new contracts yet at the time of writing, though, so let’s play around a bit with where they might end up.
Starling Marte – Philadelphia Phillies
The only primary center fielder of note on the market, Marte’s rarified skillset promises that he will have a lot of teams driving up the bidding for him this winter. The Marlins and Giants are two of the clubs that have reportedly been sniffing around him, but in the end, I think it’s the Phillies who are in most dire need of his services. The Phillies got virtually zero production out of their center fielders in 2021, and team president Dave Dombrowski singled out a new leadoff hitter as one of their primary areas of focus this offseason. Marte would solve both of these problems handily, as even at 33 years old he’s an adept center fielder who led the league in stolen bases (47) and would be an excellent table-setter for newly-crowned MVP Bryce Harper. Harper was obviously a godsend this year, but the Phillies have been hard-pressed getting good production out of their homegrown hitters, so another pricey free agent will have to do. With Harper still churning out MVP-worthy production, J.T. Realmuto with a couple of his prime years left, and a strong rotation led by Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, the Phillies need to be focused on the next two years for their window of contention. Marte lengthens the lineup, brings some dynamism to the top of it, and should help them duke it out with the Braves for an NL East title next year.
Nick Castellanos – Miami Marlins
The Marlins’ 3.85 runs per game this season were 29th in MLB, ahead of only the Pirates. Their WAR leader among position players was none other than Starling Marte, who didn’t even play out the whole year with the team after they shipped him to Oakland in July. Clearly they could use a bat like Castellanos, and they have the room in the grass – but why would he choose Miami? For starters, focusing on run production is focusing on what they don’t have – what they do have is run suppression. Lots and lots of young, controllable pitching. Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers and Pablo López headline their stable of rotation pieces that are all years away from free agency should service time requirements not change in the new CBA. The Marlins might actually be willing to deal from their rotation surplus to fill other needs on the roster, to perhaps further buttress the lineup around Castellanos. Plus, despite their difficulty scoring runs this year, they do have the exciting rookie Jazz Chisholm Jr. manning second base, the reliable Brian Anderson at third, and a few other decent options that could at least fill out the bottom of the order dependably. With Castellanos coming in as a huge bat, and with the strides the Marlins’ rotation pieces can reasonably be expected to take, the Marlins could surprise some people next year if they choose to be buyers this offseason. As for why Castellanos could be the difference-maker for them – he’s coming off easily the best year of his career, setting career-highs in batting average (.309), homers (34), on-base percentage (.362), slugging (.576), and WAR (4.2). He’d be plenty comfortable in Miami too: his high school was just 25 miles from LoanDepot Park. Not to mention, Miami is just a fun place for any player.
Michael Conforto – Chicago White Sox
Unlike Castellanos, Conforto’s production took a downturn in his walk year, with his 106 wRC+ standing out as his worst since 2016. However, his production over the four-year span of 2017-20 was exceptional. His .265/.369/.495 slash line in that period was good for a 133 wRC+ and 13.3 WAR, funnily enough. The Mets would surely miss that level of production from their right fielder, but with onerous contracts already on the books in the form of Francisco Lindor and Robinson Canó, they may find themselves more than a Conforto away from challenging for the NL East. The White Sox, conversely, won 93 games this year despite poor production from their right fielders. The three guys they used there most often, Adam Engel, Gavin Sheets, and Andrew Vaughn, combined for 665 plate appearances and just 1.7 WAR while playing the position. Not the worst production in the league, mind you, but still worthy of an upgrade – particularly since Vaughn, the best bat of the bunch, isn’t well suited for the position defensively. Adding Conforto to the mix would solidify right field and balance out a righty-heavy lineup featuring José Abreu, Tim Anderson, and Luis Robert, all without breaking the bank too much – though he does have a Qualifying Offer attached to him.
Chris Taylor – San Francisco Giants
One of the Dodgers’ postseason heroes abandoning ship for their arch-rival wouldn’t sit well with a lot of True Blue fans, but the match makes sense on quite a few levels. For one, the Giants have loved to mix-and-match position players all over the field under Gabe Kapler’s leadership, and someone with as much positional flexibility as Taylor would surely appeal to them just based off that. Taylor can play 2B, 3B, SS, LF, and CF with ease, and he’d almost definitely see time at each of those positions in San Francisco. Kris Bryant was sort of a Swiss-Army knife in his time with the team, and Taylor would effectively replace that utilitarianism with the added bonus of playing middle infield. Starling Marte makes tons of sense for the Giants as a traditional center fielder and leadoff hitter, but Taylor comes with more flexibility, isn’t quite as old, and presumably will get a somewhat smaller contract. What’s more, Farhan Zaidi is plenty familiar with Taylor from his time with the Dodgers, when he and Andrew Friedman plucked Taylor from the Mariners’ scrap heap and watched him turn into an above-average regular. Lastly, Taylor hits right-handed, and would help balance out what projects to be an all-lefty starting outfield along with the lefty-hitting Brandon Crawford being the starting shortstop. Taylor hit lefties much better than same-handed pitching this year (.296 vs. LHP, .237 vs. RHP), which is an area of critical need for the Giants – particularly since Buster Posey decided to hang up his catcher’s mitt. I had Semien going to the Giants as well, and though they probably won’t come away with both of them, I feel confident enough that they will ink one or the other (or possibly Marte).
Kyle Schwarber – Los Angeles Dodgers
You didn’t think the Dodgers were just going to sit on their hands, did you? The thinking here is that Schwarber will be their primary offensive addition this winter, while saving the rest of what’s in their coffers for at least two of Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen. Corey Seager is more of a luxury that they can afford to let walk with the presence of Trea Turner, who they may already be having extension talks with. Schwarber’s powerful left-handed bat would be a natural fit hitting between the two Turners in the middle of the lineup, and he would help soak up missing at-bats from the departures of Taylor and Albert Pujols. Defensively, he could help spell A.J. Pollock in left and Max Muncy at first on occasion, but he would also be the perfect guy to take the majority of their DH at-bats – assuming that will be a thing in 2022. Schwarber is something of a market inefficiency – defensively limited corner players are now undervalued – and a smart team like the Dodgers may just recognize a bargain when they see one. Any time a guy coming off a 32-homer season could be had for a relative “bargain” – you have to jump at the chance, no?
Avisaíl García – Colorado Rockies
Let me preface this by saying that this would be a bad decision for the Rockies, and they have no business not rebuilding with the sorry state their roster is in. Unfortunately for baseball-lovers in Colorado, the Rockies have trademarked bad decisions and receive a 50-cent royalty whenever a teenage skateboarder tries to boardslide down a staircase handrail. If the Rockies are dead set on giving off the appearance of competing, García would fit their lineup needs pretty well, and the relatively crowded pool of free agent corner outfielders – combined with the allure of mashing in Coors Field – could help Colorado land him. Charlie Blackmon is slated to return as their starting right fielder, but having him DH and letting García man that spot in the grass would be a massive defensive upgrade. Avi’s 29 homers and 115 wRC+ this year prove he’s no slouch with the bat, either. It would be very much in-character for the Rockies to sign García for way more than any other team was offering à la Ian Desmond, sprinkle in a few minor-league deals, not trade Germán Márquez, and call it an offseason. Let’s see if they prove me right – or maybe I’m setting the bar too high for them.
Eddie Rosario – Atlanta Braves
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right? Three pieces of the Braves’ rebuilt outfield – Rosario, Soler and Joc Pederson – are free agents this winter, and even with Ronald Acuña Jr. coming back from injury, you’d have to think at least one of that trio will return. Rosario is better in the field than Soler (though that’s not saying a ton) and better overall than Pederson. Over the last five seasons Rosario has put up a 109 wRC+ and 9.1 WAR between the Twins and Braves, and while Joc’s 111 wRC+ in the same span is a touch better, his 6.8 WAR is not. Also consider how Joc has hit in the new decade – a below-average .227/.304/.416 (93 wRC+) with just 0.5 WAR over the last two seasons. His best two years were actually more than five seasons ago, when he was worth 6.6 WAR between 2015-16. Rosario over the last two years, in comparison – .258/.309/.450 (102 wRC+) and 1.9 WAR. Rosario is also much less of a platoon-only guy than Pederson – in fact, he basically has no splits at all, hitting .276 vs. LHP and .275 vs. RHP in his career. Pederson is unusable against lefty pitching, conversely – he’s a career .208 hitter against LHP, and even though his .237 average against RHP isn’t a whole lot better, nearly all of his power output has come against those pitchers. The Braves might be better served re-signing the guy who isn’t strictly a platoon hitter seeing as Acuña’s health is still an open question and Marcell Ozuna may or may not even play. Once Rosario is brought back, the Braves will move on to more important business – namely, resigning Freddie Freeman.
Seiya Suzuki – Texas Rangers
The Rangers have gobs of money to spend and are eager to get back to their decade-old winning ways in their new ballpark. Suzuki (no, not that Suzuki) will be posted by the Hiroshima Carp and free to sign with any MLB club this offseason. He has youth on his side – he’s 27, entering his prime years – and his lack of MLB experience could mean he comes at a bargain price relative to more established outfield options. In his last three seasons in the NPB, he has hit .319/.435/.592 with 121 homers and 44 stolen bases, so the potential is sky-high. It’s never an easy answer how NPB numbers will translate to MLB, but even a pro-rated portion of that production could mean that he’ll be a solid starter. In addition to his solid hit tool, he’s won four gold gloves in Japan to this point in his career, so he comes with a high floor and ability to field multiple positions (he has experience at third base and shortstop, but he’s most adept at right field). The Rangers have spent big on Japanese players in the past, so Suzuki is probably at least somewhat familiar with the Rangers from the days that Yu Darvish pitched for them. Speaking of Darvish, his Padres are a realistic landing spot for Suzuki too, as are the Giants if they don’t come away with Taylor or Marte. For Rangers fans, even though Seiya isn’t a household name stateside yet, an offseason with him and maybe native Texan Trevor Story as the marquee acquisitions is both realistic and exciting to ponder.
Mark Canha – Cleveland Guardians
Canha has quietly been a very solid cog in the A’s low budget contending machine, thanks to his renowned plate discipline and moderate pop. His 115 wRC+ this season was buoyed by a 12.3% walk rate, and both of those impressive stats were actually his lowest of the past three seasons. He has put up at least a 115 wRC+ in each of his past four seasons, with a .249/.366/.441 (126 wRC+) and 10.4 WAR in that time. Those aren’t role-player numbers – Canha is a guy who can play every day and get on base at a great clip. He seems like the perfect moneyball-type player, then, but the tightwad A’s are set to shed a lot of payroll this offseason and even Canha should be out of their price range. He could be the perfect left field target for the Guardians, which would allow them to relegate Harold Ramirez to a bench role. With José Ramírez and Franmil Reyes hitting behind him, Canha could make a run at crossing home plate 100 times in 2022 if his next home team is Cleveland.
Jorge Soler – Tampa Bay Rays
If the DH comes to the National League next year, and most people seem to think it will, Soler’s market will increase pretty dramatically, but he’ll still be something of a budget Nelson Cruz. Even though Cruz himself won’t break the bank too much at the ripe old age of 41. National League teams joining the bidding fray could earn Cruz a high-dollar one year deal, perhaps with a club option for a second year. Re-signing such a player isn’t really in the Rays’ playbook, so a younger and cheaper option like Soler would be right up their alley. This seasons’ World Series MVP didn’t show as well in the regular season as he did in the playoffs (100 wRC+, -0.2 WAR), but over the past four seasons between the Royals and Braves he’s been rock solid at the plate (.246/.338/.493, 119 wRC+). He’s also only two years removed from an improbable 48-homer season in 2019, and it’s not as if he’s too old to replicate that as he’s still only 29 (not that age is an issue for Cruz). Soler should play the field only sparingly, but since the Rays have too many outfielders on-hand as is, he could exclusively DH with them. They could also trade away some of their excess outfielders and open up at least some opportunity for Soler to play in the grass. The Rays are a likely landing spot, but the Braves, Royals, Mariners, Diamondbacks, and lots of other teams could be in on him for the right price.
-Michael Swinehart
