Best Bets to Lead the Leagues in Homers and Pitching
Baseball is back in full swing, and after a few questionable months of whether or not this would be a complete season. With the MLB lockout in the rear view mirror, we’ve got 162 games (minus a few at this point) to enjoy.
And of course, with any good baseball season comes home runs, strikeouts, and constant speculation as to which players can top each league for all the important stats. As for what these important stats are, we’re talking about a couple of the most popular sports betting picks – home runs and the Cy Young Award.
Home Run Leaders
Without a doubt the most popular facet of MLB betting, picking a potential home run leader early in the season can offer some pretty spectacular returns on any wager, but you never know what curveballs may be thrown your way to bring some unexpected names to the top of the charts. But regardless of the outcome, hearing the crack of a bat and watching a ball sail into the stands is a thrilling part of the game, and with lots of young talent showing they have the potential to consistently hit HRs, there hasn’t really been a better time to guess who may lead this stat in the 2022 season.
According to Caesars Sportsbook, one of the best betting sites in the US, there are a couple of frontrunners whose names may sound familiar:
- Aaron Judge (NYY): +400
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU): +600
- Byron Buxton (MIN): +1000
- Mike Trout (LAA): +1000
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr* (TOR): +1400
- Giancarlo Stanton (NYY): +1500
- Pete Alonso (NYM): +1600
- Anthony Rizzo (NYY): +2000
- CJ Cron (COL): +2500
- Bryce Harper (PHI): +3000
*Most HR’s (48) in 2021
American League
It’s hard not to start off this discussion with the AL given the top four HR leaders last year all came from this league, and once again the odds tables seem to lean heavily here again.
Starting with the top – Aaron Judge. The 29 year old Yankee seems to consistently be one of the first mentions when thinking about sluggers, and coming off a 39 HR season shows how good he can be. Naturally the 14 home runs he’s already hit this season are a major factor in these odds, but Judge is showing no signs of slowing down, so he is a strong bet here.
We can’t really talk about HR leaders without mentioning the man who was tied at the top last season – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Right now he holds the honor of the most homers by any player in their age-22 season or younger, and while his ‘22 season may be starting off a little slow with only 7 on his stat sheet, Guerrero Jr managed to launch his final home run in the season finale last year, so there is plenty of time for him to catch up. Plus, with some longer odds he is a great value bet.
National League
Pete Alonso is definitely the first name we have to mention in the NL, and having already smashed 8 homers, he is one of the most likely NL players to top this stat. Finishing ‘21 with 37 home runs to his name, Alonso is a solid choice to top the National League in HR’s, and if he manages to settle in as the season progresses has pretty good odds for any bettor to be a bit more of a longshot to win this category for the whole of the MLB.
Only a couple dingers behind Alonso, Bryce Harper is sitting in the top ten for odds to lead in HR’s right now, but similar to NL compatriot CJ Cron, the odds are not looking great. That’s not to say we don’t think they could be a solid bet, it just means that both these player are currently five home runs behind the current leader (Aaron Judge), so they have a bit of catching up to do.
Cy Yound Award
On the other end of the pitch, the hugely popular betting category of the Cy Young Award winner is also starting to take shape. Not as cut and dry as betting on home runs or the over/under on strikeouts and wins, the Cy Young winner is still one of the top categories to bet on early in the season. And the odds from Caesars Sportsbook still have it as a pretty tight race in both the AL and NL.
America League Cy Young Winner
Justin Verlander (HOU): +500
Kevin Gausman (TOR): +550
Gerrit Cole (NYY): +800
Shohei Ohtani (LAA): +900
Nestor Cortes (NYY): +1000
Maybe a little more ‘finger in the air’ type of bet, these Cy Young favorites are all solid bets – but over his career Justin Verlander has won twice, and has had a great start to the year. You can’t really go wrong with experience and a solid team behind the 39 year old.
Since joining the league, Shohei Ohtani has earned his nickname ‘Shotime,’ and deserves some serious consideration when thinking about betting on this category (of even home runs). With slightly longer odds Ohtani could give you that little extra value if he manages to be as consistent as last year, though more of an out and out pitcher might be a safer bet.
National League Cy Young Winner
Carlos Rodon (SF): +500
Max Scherzer (NYM): +500
Corbin Brunes (MIL): +500
Walker Buehler (LAD): +1200
Joe Musgrove (SD): +2000
It’s tight at the top, and considering Scherzer, Rodon, and Burnes are all in the top five for strikeouts shows just how close this year’s NL Cy Young race will be. These three are all solid bets for the National League, but given how close their odds are, we think a potential value bet may actually be Joe Musgrove.
It’s hard to bet against previous winners that are already having great seasons, but Musgrove has odds that could payout quite a bit more, and he’s currently leading the MLB in quality starts, and tied for third with most wins.
It’s shaping up to be an exciting year for betting on the MLB, and looking for winners when it comes to home run leaders and the Cy Young award is always tricky this early – but there are a few great bets that have shown their quality already, so it’s not a bad time to dig into some stats and have a guess who will round out the main chunk of the season well.
