Major League Baseball fans are a fickle bunch. We love underdogs, but we don’t want too many underdogs. We lament high-payroll teams dominating the league, but we question the postseason format when the Mets and Dodgers get knocked out earlier than expected. We enjoy the daily marathon-like rhythm of the traditional 162-game season, but we become distraught over the results of a five-game sprint.
By every season-long measure, the 111-win Los Angeles Dodgers were the best team in baseball in 2022. They had the best record at home (tied with the Yankees), the best record on the road, and the most wins overall. They scored the most runs and allowed the fewest, giving them a +334 run-differential, which was tied for the fourth-best ever. Historically, only four teams in MLB history have won as many games as the 2022 Dodgers—the 1906 Cubs (116 wins), 2001 Mariners (116 wins), 1998 Yankees (114 wins), and 1954 Cleveland team now known as the Guardians (111 wins). It was one of the greatest seasons many of us will ever see.
And yet, despite their season-long excellence, they were eliminated by the San Diego Padres in the National League Division Series. While this was surprising, it should be acknowledged that the 1906 Cubs lost in the World Series, the 1954 Cleveland team lost in the World Series, and the 2001 Mariners lost in the ALCS. Add this year’s Dodgers to the mix and the five teams with the most wins in a season have just one World Series title to show for it (the 1998 Yankees).
Dodger fans are fuming, of course. They are accustomed to regular season excellence. This is the fourth time in the last five full seasons the Dodgers have won at least 104 games (and they had a higher winning percentage in the shortened 2020 season than in any of the other five). They’ve won the NL West in nine of the last 10 years. They’ve made it to the NLCS six times in the last 10 years and the World Series three times. But they’ve only won the World Series once and that’s just unacceptable to Dodger diehards.
Older fans in Atlanta can relate. Except for the strike-shortened 1994 season, Atlanta won their division every year from 1991 to 2005, made the NLCS nine times and the World Series five times, yet ended the season with the Commissioner’s Trophy in their possession just once, in 1995. Despite that incredible run of successful regular seasons, they are seen as underachievers.
Atlanta beat Cleveland in the 1995 World Series, the same Cleveland team that won their division six times in seven years from 1995 to 2001, made the ALCS three times, World Series twice, and had zero World Series titles when all was said and done. Despite all their success, they too are looked on as a disappointment. This year, Cleveland was hoping to end a seven-decade World Series drought, but succumbed to the Yankees in the ALDS.
The Yankees were vying to beat the Houston Astros to make it to their first World Series since 2009, despite nine playoff appearances in 12 seasons since (not including this year). Those are the same Houston Astros who have been to the postseason each of the last six years, advanced to the ALCS all six years, and appeared in three World Series, but only won it once, back in 2017 (insert your own thoughts here). If the Astros fail to win the World Series once again, they too will be looked upon as a disappointment.
For better or for worse, this is the mindset for many baseball fans. Their favorite team can cruise through a 162-game regular season, providing them almost daily joy with victory after victory after victory, make the playoffs year after year, but if they lose in the postseason, it’s all for naught. Who cares? They didn’t win the big one.
I’m not a mental health professional, but that just doesn’t seem healthy to me. The reality is that the MLB postseason isn’t designed to make sure the best teams always win. The best teams are given certain advantages, but there’s enough randomness in a short series between two good baseball teams that unlikely outcomes happen regularly.
And that’s a good thing. Imagine a world in which the favored team won every postseason series year after year after year. How boring would that be?
It’s important to remember the simple mathematics of the postseason. Each league starts with six teams vying for one spot in the World Series. Let’s consider a hypothetical league in which the six playoff teams have an equal chance to make it to the World Series. The math would be 100 percent divided by 6 teams, which equals a 16.7 percent chance for every team. That’s the baseline. In this hypothetical world, each team in the AL has a one in six chance to make it to the World Series, as does each team in the NL.
In the real world, we know that some teams are better than others. FanGraphs is one site we can look at for postseason odds prior to any postseason games being played this season. This is a snapshot of each team’s chance to make it to the World Series, taken after the regular season ended and before the postseason began:
- Houston Astros—35.6%
- New York Yankees—24.7%
- Toronto Blue Jays—12.0%
- Tampa Bay Rays—11.1%
- Seattle Mariners—10.6%
- Cleveland Guardians—6.0%
The hypothetical 1 in 6 chance for each team to make it to the World Series changes when considering teams that were decidedly NOT equal heading into the playoffs. The Astros and Yankees not only had better records than the other teams, they also had byes in the wild card round, which increased their odds to roughly 1 in 3 for the Astros and 1 in 4 for the Yankees. What people seem to forget is that this still means the Astros DON’T make the World Series twice as often as they do and the Yankees DON’T make the World Series three times as often as they do.
It’s a similar story in the National League. Consider the NL odds prior to the beginning of the postseason:
- Atlanta—28.7%
- Los Angeles—26.3%
- New York—18.4%
- Philadelphia—11.1%
- San Diego—9.6%
- St. Louis—5.9%
Atlanta and Los Angeles were both given a roughly 1 in 4 chance to make it to the World Series, with the Mets more like 1 in 5. As with the Astros and Yankees, it was much more likely that these teams would NOT make it to the World Series than they would. This is what happens when six competitive teams are vying for one spot. Even the top teams are more likely to be eliminated than make the big dance.
So what should fans do?
Enjoy the regular season for what it is, a six-month long daily dose of joys and sorrows that makes up the soundtrack of your baseball loving life from spring through the summer and into the fall. Appreciate the regular season success. Then, once the postseason begins, embrace the chaos.
