Still Pulling for the Pittsburgh Pirates
Coming off back-to-back 100-loss seasons, the Pittsburgh Pirates were the most surprising division leader in baseball as the calendar approaches mid-June. Through June 12, the Pirates were 34-30, sat one game ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central, and were the only team in the division with a positive run-differential (a modest +2).
This wouldn’t mean much for most teams, but it was a novelty for Pittsburgh. The last time a Pittsburgh Pirates team was in first place through their first *64 games was in 1997, when the Internet was mostly accessed through dial-up modems. Back then, Netscape Navigator was the most popular web browser, but America Online CDs were everywhere and Internet Explorer would soon be king. It was a time when Tamagotchis and Giga Pets were hugely popular electronic toys and Sony was still trying to make the MiniDisc happen.
*The 2013 Pirates were in second place through 64 games. They moved into first place later in the season and were in first place as late as September 16 before ultimately finishing in second place.
Those 1997 Pittsburgh Pirates were 32-32 through 64 games, which was good enough to lead the NL Central by a game over the Houston Astros, who have since moved over to the American League. In Pittsburgh’s 64th game, a 5-3 win over Kansas City in the first year of interleague play, Francisco Cordova and three relievers outpitched Jim Pittsley and two relievers while Joe Randa rapped two hits and drove in three runs for the boys from the Burgh. Jason Kendall had a hit, two walks, and scored two runs. Jose Guillen had two hits and a walk. And Tony Womack was 2-for-5 with a sock and a shoe (home run and steal). Older Pirates fans likely remember those names, but shortstop Kevin Polcovich may not ring a bell. Behind the plate was longtime umpire “Cowboy” Joe West, who was almost at the halfway point of his MLB-record 43 seasons.
The 2023 Pirates have enjoyed a wild ride through the first eight weeks of the season. After starting the year going 9-7 in their first 16 games, they reeled off 11 wins in 12 games and were 20-8 after a double-header sweep of the Washington Nationals on April 29. Then they lost 11 of 12 to fall to 21-19 and it looked like the wind was completely out of their sales. They didn’t give up, though, a modest 13-11 stretch saw them regain the lead in their division. But another rough patch – this one which involves losing 12 of 13 – is threatening to take all the fun out of Pittsburgh.
Before the season began, the FanGraphs playoff odds had the Pirates with a 6.5% chance to make the playoffs. They climbed up to 25.5%, and are back down to just a 2.8% chance. The projected standings in the NL Central have the Brewers on top, at 82-80, so a team that manages to get to 83 wins will have a real chance in this division. Why not the Pirates?
The Return of Andrew McCutchen
There are some great stories on this team, beginning with the return of the beloved prodigal son, Andrew McCutchen. He’s the heart and soul of this year’s Pirates, much like he was in his heyday a decade ago. McCutchen was Pittsburgh’s 1st round draft pick in 2005. By the time he reached the major leagues in 2009, the Pirates were coming off year 16 of what would eventually be a 20-year streak of consecutive losing records. He was instantly their best player.
McCutchen finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2009, made his first of five straight All-Star teams in 2011, and finished third in NL MVP voting in 2012. That was all a prelude to the 2013 season, when he won the NL MVP while leading the Pirates to their first winning season and first playoff berth since 1992. The MLB-record 20-season streak of losing seasons was over.
The 2013-2015 Pirates won 94, 88, and 98 games and made the playoffs all three years as a wild card team. They represent a glorious oasis of joy for Pirates fans that was preceded and followed by long spells of losing baseball. Andrew McCutchen was the centerpiece of the team during those three seasons and the years just before and after. During his five consecutive All-Star seasons from 2011-2015, he averaged 155 games played, 173 hits, 35 doubles, 25 homers, 20 steals, 94 runs scored, and 90 RBI, while hitting .302/.396/.509. He led all NL players in FanGraphs WAR during this stretch.
The Pirates traded McCutchen to the Giants after the 2017 season in a deal that brought back Bryan Reynolds, who is now one of their top players. McCutchen spent most of the 2018 season with the Giants before getting traded to the Yankees, which led to a baby-faced, goatee-less Andrew McCutchen because of the silly Yankees policy that prohibits facial hair other than a mustache. He then spent three years with the Phillies and one with Milwaukee before returning to the Pirates as a free agent in the offseason. He’s been a fixture at the top of the lineup this year with a team-leading .394 on base percentage.
Reynolds and Hayes
As expected, Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes have been key players. Reynolds is second on the team to McCutchen with a 124 OPS+, which is about the same as last year. He’s not the player he was in his career-best 2021 season, but still projects to be an All-Star caliber player by season’s end. Hayes leads all MLB players in Outs Above Average on defense. He’s a magician in the field. Even with a below-average bat, Hayes is a 3-4 WAR player.
Slugging Suwinski and Other Surprises
The best hitter in the Pirates’ lineup so far this season has been Jack Suwinski. The lefty slugger is a grip-it-and-rip-it guy who leads the team in home runs and strikeouts. His greatest flaw is an inability to hit left-handed pitching, but he’s been crushing righties. Among players with 120 or more plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, Suwinski ranks 7th with a 161 wRC+, meaning he’s 61 percent better than average against right-handed pitchers, which is up there with Juan Soto (163 wRC+ vs. RHP). Against lefties, though, Suwinski’s 56 wRC+ ranks 174th of 187 hitters with 50 or plate appearances against left-handed pitching.
Along with Suwinski, the Pirates have Connor Joe, Tucupita Marcano, and Rodolfo Castro, all of whom have been roughly league average on offense but who many baseball fans couldn’t pick out of a lineup. Another such player is Ji-Hwan Bae, who isn’t quite at league average on offense, but is tied for second in steals among NL players.
Mitch, Rich, and Johan on the Hill
On the mound, Mitch Keller is having the season many have been hoping for, with eight wins and a 3.45 ERA that is backed up by his underlying metrics. He has increased his strikeout rate and reduced his walk rate for four straight seasons, resulting in a 21.8% K-BB% that ranks 11th in MLB among qualifying pitchers, right behind Zack Wheeler and just ahead of Pablo Lopez and Zac Gallen.
Young Johan Oviedo and veteran Rich Hill, 18 years apart in age, have been the second and third best starters on the Pirates this year. Oviedo does it with a fastball that averages 96 mph, while Hill is baffling hitters with 71 mph curveballs and 69 mph sliders.
In a start June 9, Hill allowed just two runs in 7 innings while throwing 119 pitches against the New York Mets. That’s the most pitches any pitcher has thrown in a game this year and leave it to the 43-year-old to do it. It was also one short of Hill’s career high. As a 26-year-old back in 2006, Hill threw 120 pitches in a win against the Atlanta Braves. The opposing pitcher was John Smoltz, who has been retired for 13 years.
Put the Game to Bed with Bednar
Until recently, the key members of the Pirates’ bullpen have been very good. Closer David Bednar has a 1.50 ERA and 15 saves. After him, things get a little more dicey. Eighth-inning guy Dauri Moreta has 12 K/9. Seventh-inning guy Colin Holderman very appropriately leads the team in holds, with 14. On June 16, the Pirates’ bullpen ranked third in the NL in ERA. 10 days later, the unit holds a 4.53 ERA mark that’s the 4th worst in the NL.
Baseball is unpredictable, which is part of why it’s so fun to follow. The Pirates have been better than anyone expected and play in a division that looks ripe for the taking. They have a beautiful ballpark and drew 91,000 fans during their recent three-game series with the Mets. They’ve made the playoffs just three times since 1992, so their fans are hungry for a winner and the foundational pieces of a winner are in place. If ever there’s a time for Pirates management to make some moves to better the team, that time is now.
