Is Kenley Jansen a Hall-of-Famer?
Kenley Jansen is one of the most imposing closers to ever grace the game of baseball. His brute 6’5” 265 Ibs frame evokes Undertaker vibes while the slight pause in his vertical pitching motion makes him look like he’s uncorking a slingshot.
This year, Jansen’s first season with the Boston Red Sox, is a special one for the righty. Earlier in the season, he became the eighth closer in MLB history to reach 400 saves, and he now ranks seventh all-time in the category after recently passing Craig Kimbrel. Most importantly, he said that he’s in a better mental space now than he was a couple of years ago in his last season with the Dodgers.
It’s safe to say that Jansen is at the age (35) where legacy is starting to creep into conversations. The more accolades and milestones accrued, the more roundtable debates about where one stands in the history of the game.
Hall-of-Fame conversations understandably sprung after Jansen earned that 400th save back in May against the Atlanta Braves, but one has to wonder if that achievement is enough in a sport where the barrier to entry for the Hall is undeniably more difficult to surpass than that of other sports.
In Jansen’s case, the resume is beginning to corroborate such a prestigious honor. His 88.2 % save percentage ranks fourth among closers with 400 or more saves and he’s fostered four seasons with 40 or more saves, including 2017, when he finished fifth in MVP. He also holds a 2.48 career ERA, which ranks better than all eight closers in the Hall-of-Fame other than the infallible Mariano Rivera. He also won a World Series with the Dodgers in 2020, the team he was with for the first 11 seasons of his career.
But what really separates Jansen from the pack is his incredible strikeout prowess. His K/9 ratio (an incredible 12.87) is the best among relievers who’ve pitched at least 800 innings in their career (yes, even better than Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez), and his K/BB ratio is superb. Jansen’s 4.77 (K/BB) career mark trails only Dennis Eckersley’s 6.29. But, remember, Eckersley carried a slight advantage beginning his career as a starter, too, meaning he had more opportunities to increase that mark.
You can credit that indelible strikeout/walk ratio to a three-year run in 2015-2017, where Jansen’s strikeout percentage crossed 40 percent every year and his walk percentage never surpassed 4.5 %. In his best year, 2017, he conceived a 42.4 % strikeout percentage and a 2.7 walk percentage. That’s an unbelievable 15.57 K/BB, a single-season mark that hasn’t been emulated amongst the greatest closers of all time. The dude was about as accurate in those years as Austin Butler’s portrayal of Elvis Presley.
During those years, his whiff, walk, strikeout, chase rate, and fastball spin were always in the 95th percentile or above, meaning that, at the height of his prime, Jansen was about as good as any reliever in baseball.
Despite these ample positives, there are many considerations involving a Jansen Hall-of-Fame jacket. The most prestigious honor is already a wildly difficult threshold to achieve, but then you have guys like Rivera and Trevor Hoffman, who raised the bar for closers to stratospheric heights by being the only two in history with 600-plus saves. Those legends could surpass 45 to 50 saves a year in their sleep. You can’t just have really good stats like Hoyt Wilhelm and Rollie Fingers anymore; you have to be somewhat transcendent.
We’re already seeing that tough barrier-to-entry for closers play out in real-time, especially for someone like Billy Wagner, who’s been on the ballot for quite a while now.
Wagner finished with 422 saves in 903 innings during his career, a mark Jansen will surely pass when it’s all said and done (remember, Jansen already has 411 in a little over 800 innings). According to Baseball Reference, Jansen also surpasses Wagner in save percentage and SO/BB ratio but trails him in ERA (Wagner had a 2.31 career ERA compared to Jansen’s 2.48).
In a recent Forbes article, it was reported that Wagner is closing in on the 75% mark for election into the Hall after being a holdover for the past eight years. His making it during the next round looks good for Jansen’s chances, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it takes that long for Jansen too depending how the rest of his career goes.
The other aspect of Jansen’s career to consider is his playoff performances, which are still good, but a tad choppier than his regular season ones.
His 2.20 career ERA in the postseason is still excellent, but there are individual series where he struggled. For example, he is 0-2 with a 4.40 ERA in his World Series career.
He posted a 10.80 ERA against the Rays during the 2020 World Series, and surrendered three runs in eight innings against the Astros in the 2017 World Series after posting the best regular season of his career.
With such a small size, those numbers can feel inflated though, and his insanely high SO/9 line still mirrors his regular season numbers. It’s a shame he couldn’t win at least one or two more with the Dodgers (especially during that 2017 year) but there were many other factors that prevented the LA from losing key playoff games in those playoff runs.
So, will Jansen be a Hall-of-Famer? I honestly think there is no question he is. Jansen’s never led the league in saves in his career, which may hurt him, but at 35, he’s still has a lot left in the tank, and there’s definitely a possibility he jumps some guys in front of him when it comes to saves. Only the equally dominant Craig Kimbrel is on his tail at this point (410 saves).
He recently said he’s doing a lot better mentally too, and finished second in the league in saves in 2022 with 41 while with Atlanta.
His sinker/slider combo is still pretty dominant too (34 % whiff rate), though not as lethal as in his prime. Still, closers can excel well past 35 years old since they don’t carry as strenuous of a workload as starters. If Jansen continues to play to his strengths, he can pitch for at least another five years. And, if he stays with the Red Sox, he’ll be with a burgeoning team that could contend for multiple playoff spots in the future, which means Jansen will have opportunities to cement himself with more October appearances.
The Hall-of-Fame is a difficult barrier to conquer, but Jansen’s incredible prime, recent 400-save milestone, and consistent play give him a superb shot.
