Mariners Follow Different Process in Late September after George Kirby’s Comments
Earlier this month, Seattle starting pitcher George Kirby entered the bottom of the seventh inning against Tampa Bay with a 4-2 lead. Over the previous two innings, Kirby surrendered two lineouts, a flyout that would have been a home run in nine MLB parks, and a single struck at 100.6 mph. Sitting on 93 pitches, Kirby started the seventh by immediately surrendering a ground ball that was hit 96.6 mph, then a double and a home run both hit over 100 mph. The game was tied at four and Seattle manager Scott Servais went to the bullpen, which was tagged for two more long balls in an eventual 7-4 loss for the Mariners. After the game, when Kirby was asked about his performance, he responded, “I didn’t execute. I wish I wasn’t out there for the seventh, to be honest.” When asked why, Kirby answered “I was at 90 pitches, I didn’t think I could go anymore.”
Not surprisingly, most of the folks who responded on social media ignored the numerous aspects of the situation and cherry picked the one aspect of it that would facilitate their expressions of outrage: Kirby stating he “was at 90 pitches” for his reasoning into why he felt he shouldn’t be in the game.
Fast forward to Thursday, when the Mariners sat fighting for their playoff lives. Starting pitcher Bryce Miller was removed from the game after just 68 pitches, his fewest pitches in a game since June. There were no questions about the longevity of his start. Was this a case of Manager Scott Servais learning from earlier in the month or was this a case of old-school baseball understanding that managing in “big games” should look different.
Let’s look at some of the responses to the Kirby situation from some former MLB pitchers:
- Jered Weaver posted in response to Kirby’s statement “I shouldn’t have been out there? I threw 90 pitches? What the ****?? Embarrassing, truly embarrassing…grab your n*ts and let’s go to work!!” (Asterisks are the author’s, not Weaver’s, as Off the Bench is a family show.)
- Mark Mulder, who was so offended he felt that multiple posts were required, angrily typed, among other things: “I give you the biggest (crude reference emoji) in baseball (Kirby). Crazy that someone can be so mentally weak.”
- Roger Clemens chimed in with “This is tough to hear…unfortunately this is how players are being taught with modern analytics.”
Since he wanted to chime in, it’s worth noting that statistically speaking, the worst inning in Jeff Weaver’s career on average was the seventh, and not by an insignificant margin. Also, over his career, he held opposing batters to a sub-100 OPS+ through his first 75 pitches, and a 121 OPS+ on pitches 76-100. Opponent’s OPS+ climbed significantly against him with each subsequent turn through the order as well, starting with an 82 the first time through, followed by OPS+ of 104, 113, and 146 each subsequent turn.
Twice in Weaver’s career he was ejected from a game for throwing at a batter after he had been warned and while he was on the wrong end of a BP session. I’m no expert, but actively trying to leave your teammates with a mess sounds like the polar opposite of “let’s go to work!” to me.
Mulder, for his part throughout his career, held opponents to an 86 OPS+ the first time through the order followed by a combined 109 OPS+ the second and third times through. Perhaps more interestingly, since Mulder crudely questioned Kirby’s toughness, in his first two seasons Mulder averaged a tick more pitches per start than Kirby has in his first two seasons – 95 to 88 to be exact, or fewer than one inning’s worth. Which, as you would imagine, when adjusted for era, means Kirby goes deeper into games on average compared to his contemporaries than Mulder did in his era.
We’d be remiss if we moved on from Mulder’s 7th grade level commentary without noting that as a high pitch count afficionado, he had the first of his two shoulder surgeries at age 29 and was out of baseball at age 30. Again, I think wanting a young and already very good pitcher to have more longevity than that is a sign of intelligence, not weakness.
Even though Clemens didn’t attack Kirby personally like the others mentioned above, he does have something in common with them: His opponent’s OPS+ against him was 93 the first-time batters saw him, then climbed to 98, 106 and 115 with each subsequent turn of the order. Which is to say that Roger Clemens – unquestionably one of the best pitchers of all time – was not that difficult for Major League hitters to hit against later in the game.
Quite obviously, the irony lost on Mulder and Weaver (as good as they were) and Clemens (as great as he was) is that they might have helped their teams even more in many situations – not all, because all game situations are different – if they had Kirby’s mindset.
Another irony here is that people who usually blame “analytics” for blown leads and modern pitchers perceived lack of toughness, are often the same people who say things like “you need to have a feel for the game”. Well, George Kirby had a feel for the game. He knew either he was getting lucky up to that point, simply didn’t have it, the third time through the order penalty is not a myth, or some combination of each factor. His honesty in the post-game interview was refreshing, even if he would have done himself a huge favor by having the conversation with his manager off camera first and then using different words with the media.
Scott Servais played 11 seasons in the Majors and has a habit of managing teams that overachieve, so he absolutely has a feel for the game. He certainly could have justified leaving Kirby in the game as Kirby is a very good pitcher. In this instance, the bullpen was hit just as hard as Kirby: there was no “right” or “wrong” answer. To paraphrase former Oriole great and former Yankee announcer Ken Singleton, you have to remember that the guys in the other dugout get big paychecks too.
There’s many variables in identifying why Seattle lost earlier this month. Kirby’s pitching, Servais’ decisions, and the Rays just being good at hitting all likely contributed. Similarly, there’s many variables that contributed to the Mariners losing against the Astros on Wednesday. Bryce Miller’s pitching, Servais’ decisions, and the Astros just being good at hitting all contributed.
These two Mariners games reflect two different processes with the same outcome (a loss). In one, a pitcher was left in the game a bit too long and they lost. In another, an ineffective pitcher was removed after 4 innings and they lost. These examples prove that one strategy isn’t always better than another.
Ultra competitiveness and toughness certainly are important parts of becoming and remaining a professional athlete. Yet those traits combined with reality-based pragmatism, is a far better combination. That’s what George Kirby displayed in his post-game interview, even if his words could have been chosen better.
Being competitive and mentally tough is important. Being smart is better. George Kirby and some folks manage to be all three. That’s the best avenue for success, even if it doesn’t work out sometimes. George Kirby could have a chance to clinch the Mariners postseason birth this weekend. How Servais handles him will be interesting.
