We wake up on July 29th and the Pittsburgh Pirates are 1 game back in the NL Central Race. Fast forward 10 days to August 8th and the Pirates have fallen to 10 games back. They’ve lost 10 in a row while the Brewers have gone 9-1. The slim playoff hopes that took 4 months to become reality have vanished in under two weeks. They’ve gone from 5 games above .500 for the first time this late in the season in 5 years to 5 games under .500 where most baseball fans would have thought this team belonged all along. But the question remains, what has happened to the Pirates?I read back through our preseason 30 Teams series to see what we thought of the Pirates going into this year. The thing that struck me was that what we said was essentially, “There’s some talent on this team but they haven’t been able to put it all together and they lack the consistency to compete in a good (or average) NL Central.” I don’t mean to beat my own (or Max’s) drum here but what we’ve seen over the last 10 games is the realization of this prophesy.
The Pirates have played above their talent level this year while staying above .500 for most of the year. It should be noted that against teams not named the AAA Houston Astros, Pittsburgh was in fact below .500 even before this streak. I’m not saying the Pirates are or were a bad team, I don’t care how you win as long as you win, but the writing was on the wall that this team would not be in the race through September.
I also came across the Pirates 3rd Order Winning Percentage for most of the year. 3rd Order Winning Percentage basically takes into account the types of statistics (singles, homeruns, WHIP etc.) that both offense and pitching maintain and converts it to an expected winning percentage. On July 18th, the Pirates 3rd Order Winning Percentage was 25th in the league at an expected .441. Updated on July 25th, the Pirates were 27th in this projected winning percentage (thats good for the 4th worst in the Majors) but, on July 25th the Pirates were tied for first in the NL Central.
This 3rd Order Winning Percentage practically predicted the Pirates downfall suggesting that many of the Pirates wins were luck. No team is as bad as the Pirates have been over the last 7 days, when they were outscored 59-25 by two teams who were a combined 39 games under .500 before the weekend started. But things do not get easier as the Pirates begin a six game road trip to first place San Fran and first place Milwaukee.
Pirates fans should not be all doom and gloom. The Pirates have shown some real talent this year with things to look forward to going into the future but, they should realize the Pirates are not a first place team as currently constructed. The 112,618 fans who packed PNC park over the weekend are surely disappointed by this morning’s standings but, 4 months of being contenders surely felt to good to be true. I heard this last night: “It’s like Satan in a Sunday hat.” Dwell on that for awhile Pirates fans, your back to Pretenders.
Stat of the Day: 25% of toddlers have used a smartphone.
-Sean Morash
