Eric Hosmer Signing Likely Worsens Padres Defense, but Chaos Theory
The Padres Eric Hosmer signing may have inadvertently cured cancer or poisoned the Colorado River.
Chaos Theory proposes that every microscopically small event in the universe impacts every succeeding event in an unending, unpredictable cycle. The Butterfly Effect, an important principle of Chaos Theory, states that a butterfly flapping its wings can set off a chain of events that creates a hurricane halfway around the world.
The Butterfly Effect: This effect grants the power to cause a hurricane in China to a butterfly flapping its wings in New Mexico. It may take a very long time, but the connection is real. If the butterfly had not flapped its wings at just the right point in space/time, the hurricane would not have happened.
All of this is important because the Padres signed Eric Hosmer. Really, it’s just a small ripple in the fractal of baseball. Hosmer will play first base, which moves Wil Myers to left field, and Jose Pirela probably to the bench. Some bench player is demoted to AAA, which sends someone else to AA, and eventually, a player in the low minors will be released altogether. From there, who knows what can happen?
Perhaps the 26-year-old backup infielder released from the Lake Elsinore Storm rededicates his life to science. Unhindered by the physical and mental demands of playing baseball, he earns several doctoral degrees and devotes himself to ridding the world of disease. He saves millions of lives all over the world by 2035. Alternatively, he moves back into his parents’ basement and spends months and years perseverating on lost glory. Motivated by revenge, he unleashes an evil scheme to poison the major freshwater source of the American Southwest.
As the folks at Fractal Foundation say, “Because we can never know all the initial conditions of a complex system in sufficient (i.e. perfect) detail, we cannot hope to predict the ultimate fate of a complex system.” We’ll never know all of the events ultimately impacted by the Hosmer signing, just as we can’t know with certainty all of the events that led us here. However, we can safely predict a game of defensive musical chairs in San Diego. With somewhat less confidence, we can also predict whether they are improved or diminished defensively by adding Hosmer. (Note: all defensive stats courtesy of Fangraphs.)
First Base
Eric Hosmer is a first baseman who just signed an eight-year deal. Wil Myers is under contract through at least 2022, and played first base regularly for the past two years. Because they can’t (or at least shouldn’t) play two first basemen at first base at once, Myers moves to the outfield.
At first blush, this might appear like a net positive for first base defense. Hosmer has played the position exclusively as a professional since being drafted in 2008 (with the exception of 25 total innings in right field). Myers is a recent convert. He’s a former minor league catcher who turned into an outfielder, then moved to first base in 2016. Hosmer has the clear edge in experience.
However, the defensive metrics tell a different story. Hosmer was worth -6 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in 2016 and -7 in 2017. Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) treats him a little more kindly, at least in 2017. He posted -8.3 UZR in 2016 and -0.3 last year.
As for Myers, there’s no zealot like the convert. He generated positive DRS over the last two years (8 and 1, respectively). UZR is less certain though. His 8.0 UZR in 2016 was the best in baseball at his position, but he regressed to -7.7 in 2017, the absolute worst among all MLB first basemen.
| Hosmer 1B | Myers 1B | |
| 2016 DRS | -6 | 8 |
| 2016 UZR | -8.4 | 8 |
| 2017 DRS | -7 | 1 |
| 2017 UZR | -0.3 | -7.7 |
| 2 year avg DRS | -6.5 | 4.5 |
| 2 year avg UZR | -4.35 | 0.15 |
According to both DRS and UZR, there is a significant drop-off in defensive production by going from Myers to Hosmer at first base.
But Myers doesn’t simply cease to exist on defense. How will he fare in Petco Park’s spacious outfield?
Left Field
Jose Pirela accumulated only 144 PA in the major leagues through 2016, his age 26 season. Despite his inexperience as a hitter in the major leagues or an outfielder anywhere at all, he sort of defaulted into the Padres’ left field job last year. Just as positional experience favored Hosmer at first base, Myers was almost exclusively an outfielder from 2011-2015, whereas Pirela has mostly played middle infield.
Be that as it may, Pirela’s up-the-middle quickness translated pretty well to the outfield. He played 68 games in left field and 4 in right field in 2017. DRS (4) and UZR (4.1) concur that he was a positive contributor from the grass.
Myers last played the outfield in an ill-fated attempt to make him a center fielder in 2015. We’ll forgive him for the -7 DRS and -8.7 UZR in center, where he was clearly miscast. However, he wasn’t a whole lot better as a corner outfielder in 2013 and 2014 (mostly in right field). He put up negative DRS both seasons (-1 and -8), and only slightly positive UZR (1.1 and 1.3). That’s not the only problem. Myers was 22 and 23-years-old in 2013-14. He’s 27 now. No one would suggest he’s past his prime (Editor-who-happens-to-be-approaching-his-27th-birthday’s note: Thank God), but he surely hasn’t gotten any faster over the past few years. It’s reasonable to suspect that his defensive range may have dropped off a little since his early 20s.
| Myers OF | Pirela OF | |
| 2013 DRS | -1 | |
| 2013 UZR | 1.1 | |
| 2014 DRS | -8 | |
| 2014 UZR | 1.3 | |
| 2017 DRS | 4 | |
| 2017 UZR | 4.1 | |
| Average DRS | -4.5 | 4 |
| Average UZR | 1.2 | 4.1 |
Just as with first base, the net impact for left field doesn’t look good. Even with younger legs, Myers wasn’t as good a corner outfielder as Pirela. But what’s next for Pirela? His .347 OBP led the team in 2017. Surely he fits into the lineup somewhere…
Second Base?
Rookie Carlos Asuaje took the bulk of the Padres’ playing time at second base in 2017. Despite hitting for minimal power, his .270 batting average and .334 OBP earned him the right to enter 2018 as the nominal starter. More accurately, he’s an unobjectionable placeholder for prospects like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Luis Urias. Even more accurately, Asuaje (left-handed) and Pirela (right-handed) make a natural platoon.
As for Pirela, he’ll most likely be used as a super-utility man. Since signing as a teenager with the Yankees 11 years ago, he’s logged thousands of innings as both an infielder and outfielder. He has professional experience at every position except catcher. Second base appears to offer the most room for 2018 playing time, but injuries, trades, or benchings could force him into action pretty much anywhere else. The Padres deployed Yangervis Solarte in this capacity in 2017, granting him 512 PA all over the infield. But Solarte is now a Blue Jay thanks to a January trade, and so the role is open for Pirela.
For the purposes of this defensive audit, we’ll assume Asuaje and Pirela split second base time 50/50. Batting left-handed, Asuaje has the platoon advantage against a league of predominantly right-handed pitchers, but Pirela is a better hitter overall. Asuaje gets middling defensive grades from his half season as a starter: -4 DRS and 1.1 UZR (including 6 games in 2016). Pirela has accumulated about 1/4 of a season of playing time at second base over parts of four major league seasons. His defensive returns are even less encouraging: -4 DRS and -1.8 UZR.
| Asuaje 2B | Pirela 2B | |
| Career DRS | -4 | -4 |
| Career UZR | 1.1 | -1.8 |
| Full Season Projection DRS | -8 | -16 |
| Full Season Projection UZR | 2.2 | -7.2 |
By sharing second base instead of giving it to Asuaje full time, the Padres can expect a decrease in both DRS and UZR. However, neither player has a large enough sample size to say anything conclusively. There’s probably not enough information here to make a good guess about how this will play out.
Total Butterfly Effect
With major changes to three positions, the Hosmer signing effects the Padres defense like this:
| DRS | UZR | |
| 2018 1B Impact | -11 | -4.5 |
| 2018 LF Impact | -8.5 | -2.9 |
| 2018 2B Impact* | -4 | -4.7 |
| TOTAL | -23.5 | -12.1 |
This is…not good. DRS hates the new defensive alignment, projecting a net loss of 23.5 runs. UZR isn’t quite as unkind, but a -12.1 mark is still a substantial reduction in overall defensive value.
There are other factors, of course. Hosmer is a good hitter who dramatically improves one of the worst offenses in baseball. Furthermore, defensive metrics like DRS and UZR fluctuate a lot (see Myers’ 1B UZR). In fact, these moves could set off a new series of events that has a much larger impact on the team, either positively or negatively. After all, the world is full of butterflies.
*To calculate 2018 2B Impact, Asuaje’s and Pirela’s predicted values were averaged because they’re expected to split time with each other. 1B and LF were just straight-up substitutions of one player for another.
-Daniel R. Epstein
