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What Would a Bumgarner Trade Look Like?

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On Monday night, rumors circled that the San Francisco Giants are entertaining offers on their ace pitcher Madison Bumgarner. In an offseason that has already seen one blockbuster on the starting pitching market, such a move could have the potential to turn what should already be a wild winter on its head. New General Manager Farhan Zaidi doesn’t possess the same ties to the team’s World Series veterans like predecessors Brian Sabean and Bobby Evans, leaving the door open for shipping off older stars. On a roster filled with overpriced and aging players, along with a subpar farm system, it is clear that San Francisco has big decisions to make about the future direction of the franchise.

Perhaps no player on the current roster better exemplifies this dilemma than Bumgarner. A Bay Area icon, the lefty has frequently stated his desire to stay in San Francisco. He is a huge fan favorite, having helped the team win three rings, including arguably the greatest postseason performance by a pitcher in postseason history. However, even though he is still in his 20’s, the heavy usage that made him one of the game’s premier workhorses has also begun to take its toll. Over the past two seasons, Bumgarner hasn’t eclipsed 130 innings in a season, and it isn’t a coincidence that San Francisco has slumped towards the bottom of the NL West as a result. The injury history of Bumgarner could create a trade market very similar to that of the recently traded James Paxton, another top lefty who has had injury struggles. Expect the Paxton market to help dictate how much prospect capital San Francisco gets back in a deal, should they decide to make a move. For now, the time appears right to strike a deal, with multiple reports identifying both the Phillies and Brewers as ideal candidates to make a move in the coming weeks. As the below deals indicate, I think the Giants will prioritize the farm system and go after a package of young players who will contribute for years to come, rather than going for Major League-ready players. it could be a long rebuild in San Fran. 

Philadelphia should be considered the favorite to land MadBum. The team has a clear desire to contend, a massive payroll, and more than enough chips to swing a deal. With that being said, the team’s top pitching prospect, Sixto Sanchez, should remain off limits in almost any deal. The same most likely applies to third baseman Alec Bohm, who fills a position of need at the hot corner for the Phillies. However, the team’s third-best prospect according to MLB.com, Adonis Media, looks like a solid trade chip. Ranked as the 64th best prospect in the game, the twenty-one-year-old righty projects as a fireballer, with a fastball that tops out around 95 MPH. Although his secondary pitches lack in comparison, San Francisco would be ecstatic to nab a talented pitcher who is just a year away from helping the major league club. For now, he would slot in nicely as the team’s best minor league pitcher. The secondary pieces in this trade aren’t slouches either. In Gamboa, the Giants nab the toolsy, top-flight fielder that a front office typically falls in love with. Even though his bat came alive at the end of last season, his value is mainly derived from his elite glove skills, making him an ideal long-term replacement for Gold Glove winner Brandon Crawford. The final piece in the trade, Randolph, may not ever be a big leaguer. However, he also possesses intriguing power potential and has a clear path to the big leagues due to a shallow outfield depth chart in San Francisco.

The Brewers are a different situation than the Phillies. Fresh off of a deep playoff run which saw them get one win away from a National League pennant, the club is clearly in win-now mode. However, recent deals have stripped the team of their once formidable prospect depth, with only Keiston Huira on the Top 100 Prospects list. Yet what the team lacks in quality they can supplement for with quantity. The headliner of the deal, Turang, is another Giants-esque player. Despite not doing one thing extremely well, he has built a reputation as a jack of all trades in the Brewers system. Drafted twenty-first overall just last season, he had a solid first year in the minors, batting .283 over 42 games. He possesses a solid line-drive approach, and scouts see the potential for increased power and speed as he gets older. The 20-year old Tristen Lutz is the type of hitter the Giants usually don’t go after, a power-oriented righty. His big frame (6’3, 210 lbs) gives him advanced slugging for a 20-year-old, and he has a solid ability for pitch recognition as well. However, he had problems with strikeouts last year, whiffing 139 times in just 119 games last season in Single-A ball. Despite this, Lutz has the potential to be a 20+ home run hitter and can be a valuable tool for a Giants team always searching for power. Diplan is a pitcher many scouts don’t believe in as a starter. However, he could make for an excellent reliever, due to his stellar fastball and slider, both of which touch the upper 90’s.

Consider Houston as the dark horse of the Bumgarner sweepstakes. Both Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton could be gone this offseason, leaving holes in the backend of a superb rotation. The team was apparently close to landing James Paxton as well. However, an unwillingness to part with star pitching prospect Forrest Whitley led to the Mariners dealing the lefty to New York. What better countermove than to acquire the best postseason pitcher in baseball? A playoff rotation of Verlander, Cole, and Bumgarner could be enough to keep Aaron Judge and Mookie Betts awake at night and would improve upon what was already the best rotation in the game. To nab an ace, the ‘Stros would be forced to part with some top-level talent. First baseman Yordan Alvarez would be a nice get for the Giants. As both an infielder and outfielder, he has some versatility which could be of use in the NL. The 6’5 slugger’s power is legit; he bashed 20 homers over just 88 games in Double and Triple-A last year. As a lefty, he could be eyeing McCovey Cove for years to come. Bukauskas is another prospect close to the majors at 22. His strength comes from a nasty mid-90’s sinking fastball, which he uses to induce grounders. Bailey is a lottery pick and doesn’t have much projection left at 24. However, his numbers in the minors last year (2.49 ERA and 113 K’s in 97 innings) suggest there could be a future in the bullpen for the diminutive 5’10 pitcher.

-Bryan Armetta

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