College Hitters Are The Best Bet In The MLB Draft
As the days are rapidly counting down to this year’s Major League Baseball Draft, cross checkers, GM’s, and Scouting Directors are busy narrowing down their draft boards and deciding whom to select.
Most of the teams that will be picking early this year will look at past World Series winners and should notice the ways in which they have built their teams through the draft. If you look at the past few World Series Champions and their selections when they got the chance to pick in the Top 10, they have a common theme, selecting college hitters.
The Boston Red Sox last picked in the top 10 of the draft in 2015. That year, they took Andrew Benintendi who was part of last year’s World Series winner.
The Houston Astros, who won the World Series in 2017 selected Alex Bregman with the 2nd overall pick in the 2015 draft.
The Chicago Cubs have been one of baseball’s most successful teams since Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein took over in 2012. But the first few years of the Hoyer/Epstein regime involved a serious rebuild- the Cubs lost 101,96, and 89 games in 2012 -14, respectively. That left them with a lot of high draft choices.
When the Cubs won the 2016 World Series, their lineup featured two college hitters that they had drafted in the top 10- Kris Bryant (2nd overall pick in 2013) and Kyle Schwarber (4th pick in 2014).
It’s easy to see that the last 3 World Series winners have all had major contributions from highly drafted college hitters.
Obviously, making the major leagues, let alone having success there, is monumentally difficult. Even college hitters, who have more exposure to top level pitching and present a larger sample size for scouts to evaluate, can still be hit or miss. Injuries, off the field issues, and a myriad of other things can derail even promising careers. But the recent track record suggests top level college hitters may be a pretty safe bet.
In 2009, 2 college hitters were selected in the top 10, Dustin Ackley and Tony Sanchez. Both made it to the majors but neither was much more than a replacement level player.
In 2010, 2 more college hitters were selected in the top 10, Christian Colon and
Michael Choice and both made it to the majors again. Neither guy lasted more than 3 seasons in the MLB and neither is still in the league.
In 2011 only 1 college hitter was selected in the top 10, Anthony Rendon, and he not only made it to the majors but is an All Star caliber player in line for a very large contract before he hangs things up.
In 2012, again, only 1 college hitter, Mike Zunino, was selected in the top 10 and he also made it to the majors and has also been a substantial contributor for two clubs.
We’ve already mentioned one of the college hitters from the top 10 selected in the 2013 draft, Kris Bryant, but he was joined by Colin Moran. Both have made it to the majors though Moran is still trying to find his footing there. Bryant, of course, is a possible MVP candidate going forward.
In 2014 Kyle Schwarber and Michael Conforto, who is very valuable, were the college hitters selected in the top 10 and they both made it to the majors and have become notable successes.
In 2015 4 college hitters were selected in the top 10 and all 4 have made it to the majors. Alex Bregman, and Andrew Benintendi are All Star caliber players, Ian Happ has played well for the Cubs and seems to be in their plans going forward, and the first overall pick, Dansby Swanson, seems to have finally figured things out and is a force for the Braves this season.
That makes for 14 total hitters selected in the top 10 between 2009 and 2015 and all went on to become major leaguers. That’s a pretty good success rate, especially when compared to college pitchers, high school pitchers, or high school position players.
Looking forward to this years draft, one in which pitching seems to be in short supply, there is a feeling around the game that many college hitters will go early in the draft.
Some of the favorites to go in the Top 10 are Adley Rutschman, Andrew Vaughn, JJ Bleday, Hunter Bishop, and Bryson Stott. Where and how early they will go will be up to those in the draft room that have put in the countless hours of hard work to try and find that one player who will hopefully lead his team to a World Series Championship.
– James Weisser
