The 2019 Trade Deadline Winners and Losers
The 2019 trade deadline has come and gone.
In the 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2015 versions of this post, which just so happened to be all of the versions of this post that I have written, the first sentence included the phrase “non-waiver.” This year, things were different. There was only the one trade deadline and teams were forced to make their intentions known. No longer would a Justin Verlander come aboard a title contender at the start of September.
But some things are still the same: famous prospects were swapped for rental players, and the Astros were making win-now moves.
I will try to touch on the big deals here, but I may not get to all of them since there were simply so many. It’s the 2019 trade deadline winners and losers!
To the casual fan, all these names and players changing jerseys will be disorienting. To us seasoned fans, it’ll simply be weird. But I like weird, and you should too.
Winner, Winner Chicken Alfredo Dinner
Miami Marlins: It feels really weird to go with a rebuilding team as the big winner from the deadline. We should be rewarding teams for going for it, for actually trying to be good.
However, I really like the value that the Marlins were able to extract for their bullpen pieces. A 36 year old Sergio Romo landed them a 22 year old outfielder destroying AA pitching named Lewin Diaz. A guy who was in independent ball not so long ago, Nick Anderson, was paired with the league leader in losses, Trevor Richardson, to acquire one of my favorite players, Ryne Stanek, and a top 100 prospect by the name of Jesus Sanchez.
The big deal though involved a curiously fascinating swap of prospects, Zac Gallen for Jazz Chilsholm. Gallen has proven his worth at the MLB level over the last 6 weeks, while Chilsholm is an extremely toolsy shortstop struggling at the AA level.
Add it all up and it’s a successful deadline for the Marlins. They got younger and more talented, but giving up Gallen could prove to be a big mistake.
New York Mets: The Mets made their move early, nabbing Marcus Stroman from the Toronto Blue Jays and then holding the rest of the starting-pitching-starved league hostage. Stroman was acquired for the Mets’ number 4 and 6 prospects. The plan in New York was (and is) never always clear, but they may have just fallen backwards into the best rotation in the National League.
Cleveland Indians: Authors of one of the deadline’s two biggest deals, the Indians’ Trevor Bauer – Franmil Reyes – Yasiel Puig makes them one of the big winners.
One and a half years of Trevor Bauer brought the Indians 5 years of Franmil Reyes and a half year of Yasiel Puig. The also got a few other pieces in the deal, including Top 100 prospect Logan Allen. The Indians may be weaker overall for 2019, but they’re certainly set up for the long term. Plus, 2019 could be more watchable now that their outfield figures to no longer be outperformed by the Orioles.
Houston Astros: Really, Astros fans won here. The Astros new playoff rotation is… great.
Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Greinke are three of the very best pitchers in baseball and they are now together in the same rotation. The ‘stros gave up a lot for the right to pay Greinke $100+ Million over the next two+ years, including their numbers 4,5,6, and 12 prospects, but their odds of winning the World Series also went up.
The Astros also added Aaron Sanchez and Joe Biagini from the Blue Jays, two guys who may benefit from the Astros analytic approach. Sanchez has long been talented, but with less than impressive results lately, and Biagini should fit neatly into the Astro’s collection of multi-inning relievers.
I don’t hate it, I don’t love it, but I’m optimistic
Minnesota Twins: The Twins have only barely outplayed their Pythagorean Win-Loss on the year and many sites have them at 90+% to make the playoffs. They have a powerful lineup and a surprisingly deep rotation. They added Sam Dyson and Sergio Romo to help solidify their bullpen.
Is it enough? The Twins are the surprise of the MLB and are in position to win the AL Central, after all. I guess we’ll see.
Atlanta Braves: The Braves made a bunch of moves to shore up their bullpen, adding Shane Greene, Chris Martin, and Mark Melancon. They now have proven guys in a bullpen that has been a disaster all year.
I am not convinced that these guys are the ultimate solution to carry the Braves bullpen through the 2019 postseason, but the team held on to its top prospects, many of whom will be part of the next great Braves bullpen and team.
They did give up some talent. Joey Wentz, a former first round pick, who had looked quite good in the minors, was used to acquire another year and a half of Shane Greene. And they sent Dan Winkler to San Francisco for Mark Melancon. Winkler, who has struggled a bit this year and been roughly Melancon’s equal when you remove homers, comes without the $14M salary.
San Francisco Giants: If I have pause from the Braves perspective about the Mark Melancon trade, then I have to be optimistic about it from the Giants perspective.
The Giants somehow managed to skate the line between full-sell, and full-sentimental, but came out less famous, with a new bullpen, and in decent shape. They sold high on Sam Dyson, acquired a highly regarded second base prospect in the form of Mauricio Dubon, and bought low on Scooter Gennett. I do not think this is a playoff team, but their fans still might.
I don’t hate it, I don’t love it, but I’m pessimistic
Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers made moves around the edges to try to get better.
They got Jordan Lyles, Drew Pomeranz, Ray Black, and Jake Faria. These pieces certainly give manager Craig Counsell more options, but I’m not sure that these types of pitchers will be able to find the Brewers magic.
The mixing and matching that was so successful in 2018 was driven by relievers who threw exceptionally hard. Pomeranz, Faria, and Lyles do not fit the mold, but the moves provide depth for a team that recently lost some. I’m just not sure that it’s enough to pass two squads in the tough NL Central.
Oakland A’s: The A’s moves were fine. They added rental players Tanner Roark and Jake Diekman to a team that’s a half game up in the AL Wild Card. The A’s will make the postseason if Jesus Luzardo and Sean Manaea are able to contribute positively. If not, they’re destined to be on the outside looking in on the AL Wild Card game.
Tampa Bay Rays: Most of the headlines have been about how the Rays shrewdly navigated a 40-man roster crunch by stockpiling lower minors talent and Major League contributors, but the Rays bet on their depth again rather than moving any chips to the center of the table.
The team is in danger of falling from relevance as the season wears on, especially with Blake Snell‘s extended absence. They have the depth and quality of young talent to make a big move, but the Rays seem content to rely on depth and a small payroll to live their life.
They can’t be losers though because they did add one bat- Jesus Aguilar. Aguilar has 40 homer pop, but is in the midst of an awful year. If he can regain his peak form, it’s a good deal, but if not, the Rays essentially stood pat despite having a legit shot this year.
Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox kicked the tires on Edwin Diaz and eventually settled on… Andrew Cashner. Cashner shifts Nate Eovaldi to the bullpen role, but this team appears to be wasting career years from Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and the second half insanity that figures to flow from Mookie Betts. It’s a team that needed more help on the pitching side in order to get over the hump.
Losers, Losers, These Teams Lost
San Diego Padres: AJ Preller had a real opportunity to swap an outfielder for a pitcher. The deal he made involved an outfielder and a very good pitcher, it’s just that his team didn’t get the pitcher. It got… another outfielder.
In order to swap Franmil Reyes for Taylor Trammel, the Padres also had to give up a pitching prospect. The deal may make the MLB outfield playing time situation less awkward for the rest of the year, but it’s a loss otherwise.
New York Yankees: The Yankees got out-Yankeed by the Astros. They have a worse record than Houston and were still unwilling to part with some of their misfit pieces to land impact players.
Clint Frazier may be really good, but he does not have a place on the roster, especially when Giancarlo Stanton and Miguel Andujar return to relevance (in 2019 and 2020 respectively). They’ve gotten zero production from Dellin Betances or Luis Severino in 2019, but the team still should have gotten better somehow.
The Yankees are clearly one of the game’s best teams, with a real shot at the World Series this year. They’re also clearly a pitcher or two from getting to the level of Astros or Dodgers and they did nothing to address that.
-Sean Morash
