The Correct 2020 World Series Prediction: Oakland Athletics
The Oakland Athletics are stuck behind the Houston Astros. The Tampa Bay Rays are stuck behind the New York Yankees. Being stuck is temporary, just ask the guy from 48 Hours.
Both teams figure to wiggle themselves from their current position at some point, for better or worse. Despite my critical take on both organizations trade deadline maneuvering – I mentioned both within my “pessimistic” losers section – I remain optimistic about their future. The reason for that optimism is that both teams are good now and figure to be better in the future. The A’s, in particular are, as usual a non-conformist organization.
Where the Rays’ optimism stems from one of baseball’s best farm system’s, the A’s calling card is more nuanced. After the initial success of Moneyball, they have long been stuck in some form mediocrity – they’re 7 games over .500 since the start of 2007. Dealing for Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzija and company in 2014 was an attempt at “going for it” the year after a 96-win ALDS loss.
Sending out Addison Russell was surprising then, but things have been just fine in the years since. We look up today, it’s August 2019, and the A’s have a winning record, sitting in second place in the AL West without anyone who could really be considered a star. Sure, Matt Chapman made an appearance at the homerun derby, but he was a replacement for superstar Christian Yellich.
I think it makes some sense to get to know the A’s. Did you know that they have 3 of baseball’s top 26 position players in terms of fWAR?
Matt Chapman’s position in that group makes sense, but he’s not the top A’s player in terms of fWAR. Marcus Semien holds that honor. Maybe this should just be a Marcus Semien post. The shortstop has long been solid all-around and above average from the homerun standpoint. That’s still true. He and Javier Baez are the only players with double digit runs contributed offensively and defensively, and contribute a non-negative amount as a baserunner. He’s 9th in the Majors in fWAR and is strolling along with an .821 OPS. He’s followed up a 4 WAR 2018 with what figures to be a near-7 WAR season.
Then there’s Ramon Laureano, who the Astros had given up on as Kevin Pillar 2.0. Since arriving in Oakland, Laureano has found his way on offense; the explosive athlete has 21 homers and 12 steals to go with his 123 wRC+. The defensive metrics don’t love him this year, but they have historically.
So while you may not know it, the A’s have a few guys performing like stars on the position player side. They don’t have the same “death by 1,000 cuts” approach that the Rays have, but they’re solid all around.
The real trick for the A’s, just as it was in 2005, is their rotation.
The A’s recognized Mike Fiers’ performance in Houston and paid him to continue that in Oakland. He currently has a 3.54 ERA. Then, there’s Brett Anderson and Chris Bassitt, who are continuously surprisingly good. They’re both currently outperforming their FIP. It’s a non-2019 approach to a starting staff. These guys just do not strike out many people.
My reason for optimism here lies in the future of the A’s. The prospects in Oakland are good. Jesus Luzardo gets the headlines. The top prospect has battled shoulder problems this year and has yet to make his Major League debut. There’s also AJ Puk, the former Florida Gators star lefty appears to have finally figured out his way in pro ball.
The A’s also have a set of post-hype prospects, including Sean Manaea, who will likely make his return from 2018 shoulder surgery later this year. There’s also Jharel Cotton, who was recently Pedro Martinez’s favorite pitcher, working his way back from Tommy John. And Frankie Montas will be non-performance enhanced next year, after the PED version looked like one of baseball’s better pitchers for the first half of the season.
The point here is that the A’s will have an embarrassment of riches this offseason. Mike Fiers is under team control in 2020, Brett Anderson figures to be around for awhile. They have pitchers all over the spectrum: underrated veterans, prospects, post-hype pitchers that could still make an impact.
Ok so why is next year, 2020, the year?
It appears to be the perfect opportunity to build a flexible roster around talented young, proven players and an influx of talented young pitchers. There’s also a sense of urgency as Marcus Semien and Blake Treinen will be free agents after the 2020 season. They have something like $40M in guaranteed salaries next year, but even with arbitration, they will have some salary flexibility to improve the club around the edges and make a push mid-season.
The A’s are not going to follow the Astros path to World Series success, dominating the league with homegrown star power and veteran pitchers making resurgence. The A’s are going to surprise, but for those of us paying attention, we recognize that they’re set up well for success.
-Sean Morash
