Tim Anderson Joining Babe Ruth and Rod Carew while Joey Votto Splits
With a bit more than a week left in the shortened 2020 season, there are many interesting stories in baseball, from the surprising (24-22 playoff-contending Miami Marlins) to the not-so-surprising (34-15 Los Angeles Dodgers). While baseball fans in the currently-on-fire Pacific Northwest hope to see if the Mariners can somehow move past the Houston Astros in the AL West and gain a playoff spot for the first time since 2001, fans in Philadelphia, San Francisco, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and Colorado will root for their squads to emerge from a pack of teams within a game of a wild card spot.
In the meantime, here are two individual stories that are worth contemplating. Let’s take a look at Tim Anderson and Joey Votto.
Tim Anderson BABIP
Chicago White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson is one of the most exciting players in baseball. He’s a talented, free-swinger at the dish, and athletic in the field. He caused some controversy early last year with a bat flip that brought criticism from the old-school crowd, but many people enjoy the way he plays the game.
After being drafted by the White Sox with the 17th overall pick of the 2013 June draft, Anderson was a well-regarded prospect as he moved up the ranks of the minor leagues. He made the top-100 lists for Baseball America, MLB.Pipeline, and Baseball Prospectus in 2015 and 2016, with a high ranking of #19 by Baseball Prospectus prior to the 2016 season. He made it to the big leagues in June that year and hit .283/.306/.432 in 99 games. That’s more than adequate for a good-fielding 23-year-old shortstop. He looked to be part of a good, young core for the rebuilding White Sox.
Then he took a big step backwards offensively in 2017 and 2018, hitting a combined .249/.279/.404. He struck out a little too much and didn’t seem to walk nearly enough. Heading into the 2019 season, Anderson had a career batting line of .258/.286/.411 through his first 1643 plate appearances. That’s a wRC+ of 86, meaning he was 14 percent below average on offense after park and league factors were taken into effect.
At the end of the 2018 season, Anderson had a .326 career Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), which was nearly 30 points higher than the league average. He has generally been around the 90th percentile in sprint speed during his career, which allows him to beat out infield hits at a high rate. He also doesn’t hit many fly balls or infield flies, which make him a good candidate for an above average BABIP. Anderson’s batted ball profile makes it not too surprising that he would have a higher BABIP than league average. However, the Tim Anderson BABIP problem turns out to not have been a problem at all.
What is surprising is the last two seasons; he’s hit a combined .345/.371/.532, with a .409 BABIP (.400 in 2019 and .438 in 2020). Anderson’s .409 BABIP is the best in baseball for hitters with 400 or more plate appearances since the beginning of last season. His White Sox teammate, Yoan Moncada, is second, at .391. Then it drops to Fernando Tatis, Jr., at .375.
In this bizarro-world 2020 season, Anderson’s .438 BABIP is the highest in baseball history for any player with 160 or more plate appearances in a season (since 1901). Next on the list are Babe Ruth (1923, .423 BABIP), George Sisler, (1922, .422 BABIP), Rogers Hornsby (1924, .422 BABIP) and, surprisingly, Willy Adames (2020, .422 BABIP). Of course, it should be noted that Ruth, Sisler and Hornsby maintained their sky-high BABIPs over full seasons (they all had more than 640 plate appearances in the years shown). Anderson and Adames won’t get a full-season’s worth of plate appearances this year.
Still, posting a .400 BABIP in 160 plate appearances is incredibly rare. It’s been done just 56 times since 1901. Tim Anderson has a good chance to do it for a second time in his career, which would put him in very select company, joining these hitters:
- 1913—501 PA, .415 BABIP
- 1917—669 PA, .400 BABIP
- 1919—545 PA, .415 BABIP
- 1922—612 PA, .416 BABIP
George Sisler
- 1920—692 PA, .401 BABIP
- 1922—654 PA, .422 BABIP
Rogers Hornsby
- 1921—674 PA, .409 BABIP
- 1924—640 PA, .422 BABIP
- 1970—204 PA, .415 BABIP
- 1977—694 PA, .408 BABIP
Tim Anderson
- 2019—518 PA, .400 BABIP
- 2020—174 PA, .438 BABIP (through Tuesday, 9/15)
Oh, wait, there’s one more guy who could make the cut in 2020. Who would have guessed this?
- 2019—228 PA, .408 BABIP
- 2020—160 PA, .412 BABIP
Anderson and his White Sox teammates have been fun to watch this year. They have the best record in the American League and have four players in the top 12 in the AL in FanGraphs WAR. Tim Anderson leads the team. On Saturday, September 12, he had his fourth 4-hit game of the year. It will be fun to see how he finishes the regular season and if he shines in the playoffs, maybe even with another passionate bat flip.
Joey Votto Home/Away Splits
In this abbreviated 2020 season, Joey Votto has been one of the best hitters in baseball when the Reds play at home and one of the worst hitters in baseball when they’re on the road (small sample size alert!). Maybe it’s the Cincinnati chili. At Great American Ball Park, Votto is hitting .343/.467/.712. That’s a 201 wRC+, which ranks eight in baseball for hitters with 50 or more plate appearances at home. A 201 wRC+ is Babe Ruth territory. Or Barry Bonds. Or Ted Williams. That’s impressive company.
Away from Cincinnati, Votto is hitting .111/.209/.185, for a wRC+ of 10, the worst mark in baseball for hitters with 50 or more plate appearances on the road. For reference, there were a dozen pitchers with 50 or more plate appearances who hit better than that last year.
At home, Votto has walked more than he’s struck out (18.9 percent to 12.2 percent), has a .315 BABIP and a 45 percent hard hit rate. On the road, he’s struck out twice as often as he’s walked (23.1 percent to 11 percent), has a .136 BABIP, and a 35 percent hard hit rate. Those numbers don’t fully explain the massive split in Votto’s production at home versus on the road, but they explain some of it.
It’s all so very strange. Votto is in his 14th season and has more than 7500 career plate appearances and has the exact same wRC+ at home as on the road (150 wRC+). As the chart below shows, he’s often had home/road splits of 20 or more, but never anything like the extremes of this season. Historically, he’s had more seasons with a higher wRC+ on the road as at home, which is the opposite of what is happening this year.
In a typical season, with another four months to play, Votto’s home/road splits would regress towards each other. This season is almost over, though, so it will always be known as that weird year when Joey Votto was Superman at home and Clark Kent on the road. Or the year of the COVID-19. Whatever.
-Bobby Mueller
