How Zack Wheeler has had a Quiet Cy Young-caliber 2020
by Jackson Madden
This past offseason was quite literally an arms-race, with big names like Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg headlining the market. While Cole landed a record setting $324-millon deal, Strasburg was busy setting the market for him with a $245-millon contract. Arguably the third best arm in the 2019 offseason market was Zack Wheeler. The Phillies went out and got the former Mets’ starter for $118-million over 5 years. Despite not being the most sought after arm on the market, Wheeler has proven himself as an ace-caliber starter. As of now, the Phillies look great in this signing, as Wheeler joined Opening Day starter Aaron Nola in the Philadelphia rotation. And now, not only are the Phillies closing in on the postseason, they’ll be a tough out with these two at the top of the rotation.
According to us, Wheeler is the most important player on the Phillies down the stretch.
Wheeler’s 2020 campaign has been Cy Young worthy, despite not getting the hype for it. To be fair, the NL Cy Young race is as good as it gets in a shortened season like this. With three guys that are strike-out artists and big-name starters standing atop the race and seemingly distanced from the field, it’s no wonder we’re forgetting about a Zack Wheeler. However, several of Wheeler’s advanced stats put him right up there with the three leaders. For one, Wheeler is second in bWAR amongst pitchers this season, ahead of Yu Darvish, Trevor Bauer, and Jacob deGrom.
Outside of WAR, Wheeler also sits near the top in BB/9, 4th in HR/9, and 9th in quality starts. Wheeler’s bread and butter this year, and his whole career, has been his ability to limit baserunners and reduce the long-ball. So, why has Wheeler not been getting the same noise that the three headlining candidates have? The two biggest reasons are likely his not being an established big-name ace and his lack of visually dominant stuff.
Command over K’s
In the age of the strikeout being the most objective figure used to evaluate pitchers, at least among conventional measures, it’s no surprise that a guy like Wheeler isn’t getting appropriate attention. But it also begs the question, how has he been able to obtain and sustain his success this season, and over his six-year career?
For Wheeler, it starts with his ability to miss barrels. Most of the big name starters in today’s game are near the top of the charts on whiff-rate, thus generating more strikeouts. Zack Wheeler, however, ranks in the 19th percentile across all Major-League pitchers in whiff-rate. Instead, you’ll find Wheeler’s name high in the barrel-% category, 90th percentile in-fact. A barrel-rate like this is indicative of Wheeler’s average spin-rates, and underwhelming pitch movement. Despite the so-so spin- rates and movements, Wheeler is able to command his pitches and execute his hitter-by-hitter attack on an elite level.
Additionally, Wheeler has plus-velo on all his pitches. His fastball sits 96-98mph, and his changeup slings in at 90mph.
That changeup is arguably his best pitch, along with the curveball. We know there’s not a lot of strikeouts coming from Wheeler, but these two pitches induce some of the weakest contact, and have xWOBA of .234 (changeup) and .255 (curve), per Baseball Savant.
These figures reflect these two being Wheeler’s best pitches to compliment his plus-fastball. Wheeler’s changeup sets itself apart with its high velocity, and ability to create weak contact. His curveball, though only in the 60th percentile in spin rate amongst all curves, drops 3.6 inches more than the league average, and has almost 2 inches more horizontal movement (per Baseball Savant).
Accompanying these two is the aforementioned fastball, a sinker and a slider. Wheeler will continue to get a lot of strikes and generate weak contact against hitters. In his first season with the Phillies, the only thing that has slowed him down was a freak injury, in which he tore off his fingernail while putting on jeans. You never really leave the Mets, do you?
Thanks to Wheeler, the Phillies have all but sealed up a postseason berth, and present a tall task for any lineup with him and Nola taking the ball to start series. Elsewhere, the Phillies have gotten strong production from Zach Eflin, especially of late, which will be crucial to any postseason success for this team, as they’ll desperately need a 3rd and 4th starter to step up.
