Looking Back at Players With Similar Pre-Season ADPs—2B, SS, and 3B
Prior to the MLB season, I wrote a series of articles comparing players who were valued similarly in the fantasy baseball world heading into the 2021 season. My belief was that baseball fans would be influenced by recency bias, causing them to overvalue the results of the 2020 “COVID-19” season when they should have been more skeptical of outlier performances in that 60-game sample.
For each position group, I looked at players with a ton of helium, meaning they were valued much higher than in previous years, and “Anvil” guys, meaning they were less valued than they had been previously. At the end of each article, I compared players with similar 2021 Average Draft Positions (ADP) who had widely different ADPs in previous years. Now that the 2021 regular season is complete, we can look back to see how this played out.
Second Base
Cavan Biggio versus Keston Hiura versus Brandon Lowe
What I wrote then:
Cavan Biggio—67 ADP in 2021 (63 ADP in 2020)
Keston Hiura—69 ADP in 2021 (44 ADP in 2020)
Brandon Lowe—69 ADP in 2021 (197 ADP in 2020)
ATC Projections:
Cavan Biggio: 631 PA, 91 R, 21 HR, 71 RBI, 17 SB, .240/.361/.423, .345 wOBA
Keston Hiura: 614 PA, 79 R, 29 HR, 84 RBI, 11 SB, .252/.320/.467, .335 wOBA
Brandon Lowe574 PA, 79 R, 28 HR, 84 RBI, 6 SB, .254/.333/.482, .347 wOBA
My take: There are many moving parts here with these projections, with two players projected to hit close to 30 homers and two projected for double-digit steals. I believe in Lowe’s bat more than the others based on his superlative Statcast data, so he’s my top pick here. Then I’d go with Biggio for his steals because I’m not confident that Hiura will steal 11 bases given his 56th percentile sprint speed.
How it turned out:
Using NFBC roster requirements (15 teams, 14 hitters, 9 pitchers, 7 bench, 1000 IP minimum), I determined each player’s dollar value using the FanGraphs Auction Calculator for 2021. That is shown below, along with where that player ranked at their position and where they ranked overall.
Cavan Biggio: $7, 71st-ranked 2B (660th player overall)
Keston Hiura: $12, 99th-ranked 2B (843rd player overall)
Brandon Lowe: $22, 8th-ranked 2B (45th player overall)
2021 Statistics:
Biggio:294 PA, 27 R,7 HR, 27 RBI, 3 SB, .224/.322/.356, .298 wOBA
Hiura: 197 PA, 16 R, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 3 SB, .168/.256/.301, .250 wOBA
Lowe: 615 PA, 97 R, 39 HR, 99 RBI, 7 SB, .247/.340/.523, .363 wOBA
This was a big plus for me, as Lowe had an incredible 39-HR, 99-RBI season while Biggio was limited by injuries and Hiura suddenly forgot how to hit major league pitching. That being said, it took a long time for Lowe to get going. Through June 22, he was hitting .198/.298/.391, with 13 homers and 32 RBI in 69 games. He was looking like a bit of a bust at that point, but then he turned it on and hit .289/.376/.638, with 26 homers and 67 RBI in his last 80 games. Only Salvador Perez, Joey Votto, and Marcus Semien hit more homers than Lowe from June 23 on.
Ketel Marte versus Jose Altuve
What I wrote then:
Ketel Marte—88 ADP in 2021 (39 ADP in 2020)
Jose Altuve—93 ADP in 2021 (37 ADP in 2020)
ATC Projections:
Ketel Marte: 629 PA, 82 R, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 7 SB, .288/.344/.475, .347 wOBA
Jose Altuve: 580 PA, 87 R, 19 HR, 68 RBI, 8 SB, .276/.342/.449, .339wOBA
My take: Marte’s projection is a bit better than Altuve, but I can’t get past that one outlier season having such an influence on his projection. Altuve has a long history of above average hitting and is only 31 years old, so he’s still my guy.
How it turned out:
Ketel Marte: $8, 29th-ranked 2B (199th player overall)
Jose Altuve: $24, 6th-ranked 2B (35th player overall)
2021 Statistics:
Marte: 374 PA,52 R, 14 HR, 50 RBI, 2 SB, .318/.377/.532, .385 wOBA
Altuve:678 PA, 117 R, 31 HR, 83 RBI, 5 SB, .278/.350/.489, .357 wOBA
Altuve was the better choice here (yay me!), but it was more about Marte suffering two serious injuries than it was about their respective performances when they were on the field. Marte suffered a right hamstring strain in April that caused him to miss almost six weeks, then strained the left hammy in June and missed another five weeks. Altuve was good, don’t get me wrong, but Marte was better on a per plate appearance basis.
Still, actual performance is what matters and Altuve returned to his previous self, with a 2021 season that was similar to his 2019 season. He no longer steals 30-plus bases every year like he did when he was young, but he’s hit 31 home runs in each of the last two full seasons (2021 and 2019). He also led all second basemen in runs scored this year.
Shortstop
Gleyber Torres versus Javier Báez
What I wrote then:
Gleyber Torres—65 ADP in 2021 (29 ADP in 2020)
Javier Báez—71 ADP in 2021 (36 ADP in 2020)
ATC Projections:
Gleyber Torres: 601 PA, 80 R, 29 HR, 83 RBI, 6 SB, .267/.345/.486, .354 wOBA
Javier Báez: 628 PA, 82 R, 27 HR, 87 RBI, 11 SB, .259/.298/.463, .317 wOBA
My take: The projections are close, with steals favoring Báez, but I don’t believe he’ll steal as much or play as much as he’s expected to, so I would take Torres and not look back.
How it turned out:
Gleyber Torres: $6, 31st-ranked SS (242nd player overall)
Javier Báez:$22, 7th-ranked S (43rd player overall)
2021 Statistics:
Torres:516 PA, 50 R, 9 HR, 51 RBI, 14 SB, .259/.331/.366, .307 wOBA
Báez:547 PA, 80 R, 31 HR, 87 RBI, 18 SB, .265/.319/.494, .344 wOBA
Oof. I was very, very wrong on this one. Torres was projected for 29 homers and hit just nine. He now has back-to-back seasons with slugging percentages below .400 and his 38-homer season in 2019 seems like a long time ago. The one surprising thing he did was steal bases, a career-high 14 in 2021.
As for Báez, I was correct that he wouldn’t play as much as he was projected to. The ATC projections had him at 628 plate appearances, which would have been the second-most of his career. He had 645 plate appearances in 2018, but 450, 508, and 561 in the non-Covid seasons around that one. This year’s 547 falls right in line with those other years. Still, I was way off on his overall production and especially his steals. I expected him to steal fewer bases coming off a full-season total of eleven in 2019 and three during the shortened 2020 season. Instead, he stole 18, the second-most of his career.
Corey Seager versus Xander Bogaerts
What I wrote then:
Corey Seager—33 ADP in 2021 (140 ADP in 2020)
Xander Bogaerts—34 ADP in 2021 (38 ADP in 2020)
ATC Projections:
Corey Seager:608 PA, 94 R, 29 HR, 97 RBI, 3 SB, .290/.354/.524, .369 wOBA
Xander Bogaerts: 631 PA, 94 R, 28 HR, 91 RBI, 12 SB, .288/.360/.506, .365 wOBA
My take: You can’t go wrong with either player here, but I would take Bogaerts based on his ability to steal bases and likelihood of getting more playing time. The Dodgers have so much talent on their roster that they don’t need to have their regulars play 150-plus games each year. The Red Sox, like most teams in baseball, do not have that luxury.
How it turned out:
Corey Seager: $8, 23rd-ranked SS (185th player overall)
Xander Bogaerts:$19, 10th-ranked SS (54th player overall)
2021 Statistics:
Seager: 409 PA, 54 R, 16 HR, 57 RBI, 1 SB, .306/.394/.521, .389 wOBA
Bogaerts: 603 PA, 90 R, 23 HR, 79 RBI, 5 SB, .295/.370/.493, .368 wOBA
This is very much like the Ketel Marte/Jose Altuve situation I wrote about above. Seager was a better hitter per plate appearance, but was limited to 95 games because of a broken hand, which made Bogaerts the more valuable player. Bogaerts essentially replicated his 2020 season:
2020: .300/.364/.502, .368 wOBA, 130 wRC+
2021: .295/.370/.493, .368 wOBA, 130 wRC+
There’s not much difference in those two batting lines. You could shift around some hits and walks and get them almost identical. The biggest difference for Bogaerts between 2020 and 2021 as far as fantasy baseball is concerned was the drop from eight steals in 56 games to five steals in 144 games, which didn’t come close to that 12-steals projection from ATC. Still, he was more valuable than Seager, so that’s a plus for me.
Third Base
Kris Bryant versus Ke’Bryan Hayes
What I wrote then:
Kris Bryant—122 ADP in 2021 (56 ADP in 2020)
Ke’Bryan Hayes—134 ADP in 2021 (624 ADP in 2020)
ATC Projections:
Kris Bryant: 620 PA, 90 R, 25 HR, 74 RBI, 2 SB, .260/.355/.464, .349 wOBA
Ke’Bryan Hayes: 573 PA, 73 R, 17 HR, 67 RBI, 8 SB, .276/.345/.454, .344 wOBA
My take: Bryant was the sixth third baseman drafted in 2020 who has now dropped to 10th at the position, just one spot and 12 picks ahead of a still rookie-eligible player in a bad lineup who had the hottest month of his life last September. Bryant has fallen too far and Hayes is being drafted too high based on less than 100 plate appearances in his rookie year. There should be more than one round of difference between these two given Bryant’s long history of excellent hitting at the major league level.
How it turned out:
Kris Bryant: $17, 9th-ranked 3B (78th player overall)
Ke’Bryan Hayes:$1, 32nd-ranked 3B (337th player overall)
2021 Statistics:
Bryant: 586 PA, 86 R, 25 HR, 73 RBI, 10 SB, .265/.353/.481, .356 wOBA
Hayes:; 396 PA, 49 R, 6 HR, 38 RBI,9 SB, .257/.316/.373, .301 wOBA
This was another easy win for me. Hayes was electric in a 24-game sample in 2020, with a batting line of .376/.442/.682 that was propped-up by a .450 BABIP. He came crashing down to earth in 2021, finishing the year as a below-average hitter (88 wRC+). Along the way, he missed considerable time early in the year with a wrist injury, then missed the last week of the season because of the same wrist, so that was a major factor. Hopefully, he can come back healthy for the 2022 season.
Bryant had been an above-average hitter every season of his career until 2020, when he missed considerable time and finished the year with a 75 wRC+ in 34 games. His ADP went from 56 prior to the 2020 season to 122 prior to this season, but he bounced back to an above-average 123 wRC+ while scoring 86 runs, hitting 25 homers, and stealing 10 bases, the second-highest total of his career.
